Crucial elections everywhere, dramatic conclusions! Shame and pride for all!

Today we had dramatic elections in three areas of the world and curiously, I can put them together in a way that they relate to Venezuela! Not necessarily directly but bear with me.


Since this blog is about Venezuela we will start with the two partial elections held today which have been a major set back for the regime, even though the results were predicted pro opposition. But not that much pro opposition....

Readers may recall that two opposition mayors had been removed by judicial diktat without a trial, as the High Court of Venezuela has become a mere extension of the executive branch, removing out of the way "legally" whatever annoys the dictatorship. The two mayors were in addition jailed because, well, the high court decided it was to be. Since we live under a dictatorship that cares to pass as a democracy they had no choice but to call for new elections for these two cities. Granted, these two cities were going to give new wins for the opposition but the political calculation of the regime was that the opposition would divide and that any drop in its support would be used as a positive news for Maduro. It was not to be.

For full disclosure I have not followed closely those elections because 1) I was busy on matters that I shall talk more about later and 2) I was disgusted by the overall political response of the opposition MUD to the gross coup from the regime. Certainly we had to go and vote anyway, but I think the opportunity was badly mismanaged to score a few extra political points along the way. Then again I am quite convinced that there are those in the MUD that definitely think it is more convenient for them to remain in the opposition. But I digress.

The results fell tonight and not only the opposition retained its two cities but it increases its vote share and percentile numbers. Based on the CNE numbers available (with a few hours late while nationwide elections results in Colombia next door came out fast and uncontested, same old story with the CNE) we can see the following: [number changes from December 2013 to today]
San Cristobal went from 82,794 votes for a 67,7% to 88,991 with a 73,6% (chavismo lost 5,000 votes which seem strangely close to the numbers the opposition got extra, no?)
San Diego went from 29,665 votes for a 75,2% to 33,910 with a 87,7% (chavismo is defeated 1 to 8, in addition of dropping 2,500 votes).

All the efforts of the regime to brow beat these cities, to divide opposition, to promote abstention have failed and it looks like the gains were made more at the expense of chavismo than possible abstention. there is no way around, this is a major set back for the regime, a major confirmation that the opposition is now an electoral majority. Days of reflection for all ahead. Chavismo strategy is a dead end of violence and repression. The MUD cannot possibly win if it does not find a more durable way to tie protest and elections and clear message as it was, miraculously, the case today. Yes, I wrote miraculously.

And since I mentioned how once again the CNE was shamed by election systems outside of Venezuela, let's talk about the second election in importance for Venezuela today: the presidential one in Colombia. Let's start by saying that when a sitting president running for reelection scores a paltry 25,7% with a huge abstention, well, he is in trouble. The more so when he trails the first round winner by 4 points, and the very honorable third place has 15,2% which is almost enough to push over the top the front runner with 29,3 if she decides to go that way.

Why has Santos failed so badly, not even able to score a face saving 30%? All cannot be attributed to Uribe wishes to sabotage in any possible way the one who was his anointed heir. I am going to venture a speculation: the disaster next door, in Venezuela, with the clear electoral manipulation of the FARC pseudo negotiating stuff in Havana has turned early support for Santos proposal for peace into a serious doubtful proposition, a proposition that in the presidential debates was criticized one way or another, mildly or strongly by every single candidate (even though all piously preached for peace). Clearly the Colombian people have not valuated the economic progress of Colombia under Santos and are more afraid of him being manipulated by the FARC (and Cuba and Caracas). In Caracas Colombians voting at the embassy were clear on that idea: Zuluaga trashed, TRASHED Santos.

En Caracas Zuluaga le dio una paliza a los demás candidatos colombianos http://t.co/yr5zgbYMnp … pic.twitter.com/b5DnFOMjUW
— Enver Conde Ferrer (@EnverConde) May 25, 2014

Something that they also know in San Cristobal with this tweet:

"@SoniaInk: Mira @nom3lacalo pic.twitter.com/UI7Urs548C 1 imagen habla màs q mil palabras. Elecciones Tachira-Colombia mismo dia"@fdelrinconcnn
— Auramar Gonzalez (@auramar60) May 26, 2014

Oh well.....

The third election I will be brief because I am too embarrassed as a French man to read that the Front National got 25% of the votes in France (and sister parties elsewhere in Europe performed quite well too, in particular the UK).

The two oldest democracies in Europe have given birth to major parties that want to kill Europe, democracy, solidarity, etc...  I am astounded.....

My take, if you will, is that there are 25% of chavistas in Paris and London. Yes chavistas.  Political parties that are reactionary, xenophobic, homophobic, authoritarian, well, in short, full of "resentidos", people overwhelmed by resentment and thus unable to understand the wide world and thus scared to death by it to the point of believing that frontiers can be risen again, that you can function quite well in your little corner on your own. That is exactly what Chavez offered. Even his reaching out to other countries was a mere "come and subject willingly to me and my system", never an understanding and accommodation of differences.

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PS. we also learned today that Correa has decided to ask for a constitutional reform so he can be president for life too. From Paris to Quito, democracy under constant threat.

Did the MUD serve an ultimatum to UNASUR?

One should never forget that the crisis in Venezuela is also about Venezuela and its place in the world. All is not played at Caracas alone and the world is wondering what it will do with the ruins of Venezuela that will still be seating over quite a nice pile of oil, hydroelectric power and even some usable agriculture as the world will run out of arable land.

As such, UNASUR, the faulty creation of Brazil's Lula as a lame attempt at excluding the US from its own hemisphere policy making, is facing doom at its first real challenge ever. The more so when idiots like Uruguay president Mujica come out on a CNNE interview implying that only the opposition in Venezuela is violating its constitution when CNNE has been proving it otherwise for months now. Mujica positioning squarely on Maduro's side is simply scandalous: he is either and idiot, either misinformed, unforgivable for a president, or either simply vicious. Not excluding the three together, obviously.


The problem of UNASUR is that even if there is a unanimous interest in preserving the status quo in Venezuela (the only ones that could have expressed a dissenting opinion having being duly neutralized) it is failing at that, and losing face along the way. In short, the South American security organization is demonstrating that not only it cannot influence events in Venezuela, but that it will be unlikely to do so anywhere else in the sub-continent. Heck, even Ecuador's Correa has expressed misgivings on Venezuela economic decisions as the source of all the trouble. That can only mean that UNASUR is more and more reluctant to support what appears to be a loser and that its secret agenda may be in fact to substitute Maduro for a more acceptable chavista. Well, one can always speculate, no?

That is the outlook I chose to comment on what happened today, the closed doors meeting between the UNASUR delegation and the opposition MUD where this one drew the line in the sand. That line is simple: the regime needs to prove that it means a real dialogue, that it means to go back on the road of creating working institutions as the only way to face the economic and political crisis.  The ways to reach that goal may be discussed but not the goal. And this was served to the UNASUR, telling them to go and talk to Maduro and Cabello and if they fail, please, stop wasting our time.

They did not say that in these words of course. But that is what it all meant today. After all, time is running out for the MUD as it failed to include the hard core protest, the visionary politicians, the students in the "negotiation team". You know that the MUD feels cornered when you read the extensive interview Capriles gave today, which in my opinion did not help him much even though he toughened his stance somewhat. He still seems lost at sea, he still seems to fail to understand what is truly going on in Venezuela, he still does not seem to appreciate the extent of the economic tsunami on its way. Or worse, he prefers not to see reality. And he certainly did not read, nor could possibly understand I add, the Aguiar OpEd of today announcing the danger of a decisive split inside the opposition.

But things are not rosy for chavismo either, which should make UNASUR even more reluctant to accompany Maduro until the bitter end. For example, we learn that the July congress of the PSUV, Maduro's party, will "debate" only ideological matters and that there will be no questioning of authority, no change, no nothing. That is, PSUV not only represses democracy outside, but it reveals itself more Leninist than ever.

But it gets better: Maduro announced Saturday that now he will create "communal militia", that is, the unconstitutional system of communes to replace the constitutional system of states and districts, will be supplemented with its very own militia system. Of course, besides creating yet a new network of fascist control and denunciation, it is also an acknowledgement that Maduro, and the regime, fear more and more an outright military intervention.

The question is: will Maduro understand that perhaps, just perhaps, throwing a few real bones to the MUD will do him more good than harm? I am not holding my breath. It is for UNASUR to decide whether it will sink with Maduro or it will wake up and rise above ideology. Let's say that I ain't holding no breath neither.

Notes on Voluntad Popular, under siege

Just a short post to remind readers that the only political party that is truly creative these days in Venezuela is Voluntad Popular. Not that other politicians are not creative, such as Maria Corina Machado, but her failure at creating a solid party handicaps her a lot.  For example today Voluntad Popular promoted a march to defend gay rights in Venezuela, to demand the liberation of one of its activists, Rosmit Mantilla,  unjustly arrested on false charges. The event seems to have been small attendance by current oppo standards. I did not show up since it was my day to take care of the S.O.. But that is not the point.

The point is that VP is the ONLY party that dares to bring that subject to the forefront, that is not afraid to bring up topics that make other groups very uncomfortable. As a matter of fact, the regime who started as a promoter of Human Rights in 1999 is now a mere repressive organization, duly fascist, and thus duly homophobic. And I can vouch personally that the regime actually puts hurdles in promoting any form of recognition to alternative expressions. I am not going to elaborate as I do not want to create trouble for some people because I know this blog is monitored but I have suffered how far the regime can go to block certain things that are fully granted in other countries.

Leopoldo Lopez is already forgotten by some people on the opposition who at best pay lip service, making him just one of the many political prisoners "so, really, why any special treatment" one almost believes is hearing. But he is not forgotten elsewhere.  You know, like the Kennedy School at Harvard University that gave him a special award this week. The award is given to notable alumni and Lopez is one. He acknowledged that, well, he learned the importance of dedication to public service, and good public service at that, in this hot bet of leftists Ivory Tower that Harvard is. I suppose that the fascist left thinks it is better to learn good governance à la Chavez in fascist backrooms and front room brawls. But I digress.

It is certainly a tribute to Lopez organizing skills that even from jail he is acknowledged and promoted, and even while he is in jail with limited communication his political party is able to keep active, creative and innovator. No wonder so many mediocre opposition politicians find common ground with the vile chavista ones to try to hide from view Lopez and Voluntad Popular.

Narendra Modi

This was tweeted a few hours ago by yours truly.

Modi is a conviction politician who can think out-of-the-box and challenge conventional wisdoms http://t.co/UwLNwHEfam
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) May 17, 2014

I thought maybe a little bit more thought from this Times of India quote could be interesting.


Far from me to sponsor a guy that comes to power in part due to his proclivities to stir communal violence through religious extremism.  What I was thinking about is that the strategic mind of Modi is something that is clearly lacking in Venezuelan politicians these days. Or as I have written in other guises, only a conviction/principled politician that is not afraid to lose an election so as not to risk compromise on principles will be able once and for all to defeat chavismo and change Venezuela's mind set.

You need to understand that Congress in India is kind of an educated chavismo. Or rather closer to AD, of which chavismo is after all its very worst expression. It is a left leaning party that has not been afraid to use nationalism when needed, to curtail all sorts of human rights when needed, etc, etc. It is paradoxically too bad for them that once they started to see the light and participate in that BRICS creation, that they get the worst electoral punishment of their history.

Congress was also a leftist party against cast and privilege but that had no qualms to enshrine a political dynasty to the point of trying desperately to protect the latest heir who suffered such a stinging rebuke in this month long election. He was not even the Prime Minister candidate, he was just the campaign manager of Congress, so sure they were to lose the vote.

Of course, for all of its failing Congress remained democratic, there is no other way around in a multicultural giant. Any dictatorial attempt would have broken down the country as it nearly did when Indira played with fire. Congress was democratic enough to accept to lose this month by a landslide that may not have been that deserved. But politics are rarely forgiving.

Comparing Congress to PSUV and chavismo is of course an affront to Congress. But some trends are interesting, from those missing Chavez and already openly speaking of putting one his daughters to the front, to the intolerance in assuming that they are the only ones able to truly represent El Pueblo, the only ones able to avoid social chaos. Never mind that at first they went as far in their contempt as to present Maduro as Chavez "son".

Narendra Modi did find a way around such a leftist self righteousness that seemed to make it impossible to truly crush electorally Congress one day, just inflicting an occasional side stepping of the Gandhi family for a term by a lose coalition that was easily dismantled next election. If Narendra is partially successful in his ambitions he may have well ended for good Congress domination and sent the Gandhi back to Italy if needed.

And yet, a few months ago it was far from certain that Modi would pull such a feat: his principles, his vision, his convictions were repulsive to many. But he stuck to it, he gambled and it paid of. India now has for the first time in its history a bona fide right wing government that has a mandate to make deep changes, in spite of still a huge chunk of the population poor, rural, uneducated.

Again, the point here is not to side or howl at India's electoral result. My point is that Venezuela political wisdom makes it impossible for a conviction politician like Maria Corina Machado to rise to the top. And for those with some conviction, like Leopoldo Lopez, or Uslar Pietri decades ago, the political class is only too willing to ruin them at the very first opportunity. Congress mentality goes from the PSUV to PJ, and went from AD to COPEI, that is the big difference, there has never been a true opposition.

As long as Venezuela, all proportions guarded, will not create a conviction political party like BJP minus all the religious crap, at the very least, thee is no way that the country will durably change for the better, become a true democracy.  On this respect my hat again to Congress for having allowed democracy to be so dramatically highlighted once again through the incredible electoral show offered the past month. We are so far from India, and not only in distance.....

I am afraid there is no peaceful outcome for Venezuela anymore

The opposition political umbrella, MUD, decided to walk out of the dialogue table, a decision based on the regime intensifying repression, a decision based on the clear plain fact that the regime is not interested in any compromise, in any dialogue, in any power sharing, ANY. Actually, with the abusive repression of yesterday where even kids distributing flyers were arrested we can safely assume that at no point the regime saw the dialogue meetings as anything but a device to gain some time. That the first public hearing was a first time eye opener for many chavistas about the rottenness of the regime was enough to sink the dialogue if there was anyone in the regime serious about it.

We are thus entering the heart of the crisis.


Let's review the direct causes of the crisis today.

There is an economic cause: the country is bankrupt and there is no way it can escape its fate this time around.

Yet, the regime has decided to ignore that side and is instead preparing itself for a major default, for the deliberate ruination of any economic factor not aligned with the regime, of an apartheid where only regime followers will have access to goods, to ration cards, if needed. I am convinced for at least a couple of years that this was an objective. I suspect that at first they meant to create a large dependent class that would be enough to ensure political survival for decades. But the incompetence and thuggery and corruption of the regime made this a runaway experiment, and now, cornered, they are seriously considering going all the way, turning the economy into a few major concerns that will be able to sustain a survival system.

Today in Venezuela you cannot replace your cel phone even with a cheap one, you cannot find batteries for your car, elevators cannot be fixed because there is no money to buy the electronic control cards, your production lines are compromised because there is no spare parts, there is no electricity, there is no functioning infrastructures. We are regressing faster than what many think, regressing in a way that will make it much more difficult to come back. A regression that will be accentuated by the poor education exiting now, by the massive emigration of skilled workers.

There is a political trigger and it is not the death of Chavez. The direct causes of the crisis today were set years ago, in 2010 when the National assembly was neutered and when Chavez did his last big wave of expropriations that left us today without milk, without meat, without cereals. That year were planted the seeds of rebellion, a rebellion that would grow as people realize there was no political outlet, no economy to prosper within, and that rebellion would become the only available tool.

The political trigger was the electoral fraud of April 2013 when Maduro lost the election but managed to claim a 1% margin victory though ballot stuffing the traditional old way. That the opposition at first denounced effectively the fraud but then dropped it cannot hide that aspect. Even chavismo knows that they are a not a majority anymore, then the scare tactics, to postpone the end, to pillage whatever can still be pillaged.

The crisis is made worse because turning the initial fraud claim against April 2013 result into a meek acquiescence has divided irremediably the opposition into two camps, none with a leadership inspiring enough to unify it, for the time being anyway.

The crisis has been made worse because chavismo is a hotbed of intrigue, a fight between corrupt clans where a Cuban master is only interested in controlling the country regardless of the political concessions it should make at least inside chavismo. All decisions are made to preserve the regular stipend that the Castro criminals think is their divine right.

The crisis is made worse because the only international community that could do something, Latin America, is mired in its political contradictions, the fake democratic vocation in many a country. It is also too afraid that it will not recover the huge amounts of cash Venezuela owes. They think that if the regime lasts some more they may recover some of the money due; and they are afraid that a new regime that would expose the intense corruption and connivance between Venezuela and in particular Brazil and Argentina would have a perfect excuse to default with these countries. And create political trouble for them.

Thus all of these factors are leading us inexorably to more and more violence, to a radicalization of opposition factors that will inevitably turn into some form of terrorism while the true murderous nature of the Cuban educated and brained washed chavista leadership will be given free rein. The regime will be unable to control our homegrown terrorism. The regime will be unable to accept any political solution because their crimes will be too many. Someday the body of Maduro or whoever will replace him will be trying to escape a Qaddafi fate while the country will end up in anarchy like Lybia or Syria. There is where our Venezuelan spring is headed.

It is too late for the regime, it is in automatic beast mode which will devour itself.  The opposition has still a slight chance to make a difference if it can unify for one last willful democratic challenge. If they don't, both sides will irremediably sink as only the violent fringes will have what it takes for the long years of trouble ahead.

The morally uptight revolution

Long time readers of this blog will remember that I often wrote that on many aspects the bolivarian pseudo revolution is a mere look at the past, your basic reactionary movement. This week they reminded us again how morally uptight they also are, Victorian to the core but without the work ethic or basic honesty.


Let's start with a latest high court decision that sexual advertisement should be banned from newspapers, and that Reggaeton songs should be censored on radio. I am certainly not a prude but there is certainly a case to be made that some norms should exist as to how sexual advertisements (read: prostitution) should be handled in the newspapers available to general public. But banning ads outright is not going to work, it never worked to control prostitution, anywhere. The more so in Venezuela, a country of easy sexual mores, skimpy attired women where virgin teenager girls dress like experimented whores of other countries; where after 15 years of chavismo, more than ever, a woman's value resides in that a man wants to fuck her. Period.

The offensive ads were apparently published 5 years ago, that is how long it took the TSJ to reach a verdict. That is in itself highly suspicious, the more so that it is directed a newspapers that have a not insignificant portion of their revenues from classified. For example El Universal even started putting inside their small ads pictures of the alleged escort offering her, or his, services. Interestingly, if the pictures of the women seemed rather unrealistic for the Venezuelan market the ad pictures for the men offering services for men looked more plausible, though nearly all claimed 20cm. And if you doubt that this is yet a way to push the general censorship agenda, the TSJ also ordered to investigate the existence of prostitution rings behind these ads. There is no doubt that at least one of these ads will be found to be connected to such a ring and that at some point a newspaper will be punished for not having investigated each and every ad folks placed. I suppose that the TSJ will also want newspapers investigate all the scams from used cars, inadequate housing and what not.

For reggaeton I will not come to its defense: it should be banned purely on aesthetics grounds. But that is another story.

The other puritanical moment came from Rodriguez Torres, the security minister, during the tearing down of student camps a la "Occupy Wall Street". Apparently the man is shocked because in addition of all the alleged war booty he found, there was "promiscuity and social shame". The term he used is "bochorno social" which in fact does not mean anything in Spanish but can be suggestive of socially embarrassing conducts as I tried to translate. I will start by noting that the term would be much better applied to the intense corruption we are subjected by the regime.

The thing is that Rodriguez Torres is appalled that at night in these camp sites with plenty of vigorous youngsters there was more going on than political protest. And that must be reason enough to suppress them. I suppose that Rodriguez Torres having spent his life in military barracks with all sorts of sexual repressions, usually vented out through homophobia or machismo, never had much time to wonder about is it to be young. And since he was fired from the army as a coup monger he was too busy organizing thug gangs to support Chavez to visit a psy and work out his sexual frustrations which are more obvious everyday.

The fact of the matter is that the bolivarian fraud is turning more repressive, more conservative, more uptight by the day, just as it happens with most revolutions which after having destroyed institutions suffer from the lack thereof and thus turn to easy placebos like sexual repression. Ask Reinaldo Arenas how the Castro revolution went fast from his liberator to his oppressor. Do I need to remind the readers how often I had to write against the homophobia alive and well inside chavismo? Or how in the purest machista style women are used to do all the dirty errands of the regime?

To finish I retake an old cartoon of Weil, ever so actual. Remember he drew Chavez with a military boot for head. Chavismo is reactionary in every sense.

An excruciating summary of what are the stakes in Venezuela

In these recent days of anguish, when hundreds of students are taken into custody and at the very least psychologically abused, when Human Rights Watch issues a damming report that should send Maduro to jail some day, that inside the opposition there are clearly double agents that try to protect regime's human rights violators in the US in exchange of, well, goodies, etc. it is a good time to remind the reader what is ABSOLUTELY at stake here, least we get confused by all of these people trying to confuse the truth out of reality.

Fortunately I have an OpEd of Maria Corina Machado in El Universal today which is a short summary of what is at stake and I am taking the now rare step of translating it. Least anyone still has doubts, least anyone thinks I am an extremist.
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Regime change

An intentional plan : to finish off everything that allows society to live independently

MARIA CORINA MACHADO | EL UNIVERSAL
Saturday May 10, 2014 12:00 AM

These days I heard a fellow UNIDAD [opposition MUD] say that the goal of the protests should be solving problems and not trade Maduro. If we lived in a democracy, it would be a startling statement;  the logical aim of an opposition is to reach power constitutionally asap. But Venezuela is a dictatorship. It is a regime that to remain in power and to dominate society needs society ruined, divided, terrorized and dependent on the state. A regime that does not want to solve the problems.

The institutional, economic and moral destruction that we suffer is not only due to the infinite incompetence and corruption of the regime, there are part of a deliberate plan: to finish off everything that allows society to live independently, to demand [its rights], to defend itself. Thus the relentless attack against [trade] unions , universities, the media, businesses, professional associations, neighborhood associations, political parties, NGOs and even churches .

Is our goal is to increase the allotted preferential dollars or have an economy without controls ? [Is our goal] that they allow to import a little bit more newsprint or that there is full freedom of expression and the return the concessions wrested from [free] TV and radio? [Is our goal] to raise a little bit salaries or is it that public and private companies be competitive and pay worthy wages growing up apace with productivity?

Who can believe that the regime led by Maduro will stop judicial decisions made ​​in Miraflores [Palace]? [Who can believe that the regime] shall respect the right to property and end expropriations? [Who can believe that the regime] will disarm paramilitary groups ? That it will expel the Cubans from the army? That it will stop the gifts to foreign clients? That public employees will cease to be political prisoners? That citizens can protest peacefully without being repressed ?

This is why Venezuelans have understood that it is not a matter of asking the regime to change its policies; it will not. Our struggle is for regime change by constitutional means, as soon as possible; and it is therefore essential to maintain peacefully  public pressure in the streets.

A fellow Barquisimeto impeccably expressed it these days  " it is not about improving the conditions of captivity , it is about living in freedom."

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Of course, regular readers know that these ideas , all of them and more, have been exposed this year alone at least once in this blog. But it is nice to have a reminder. And to also be reminded that those that have a clear mind, a clear message, are, well, sidestepped by the MUD who is only too happy to let the regime deal with its mess as long as they get a token of gratitude, preferably in cash, from the regime. You know who you cowardly are, but it is not Maria Corina Machado, it is not Lopez, it is not the students.

A time of truth for the Venezuelan opposition

According to BBC, those may be the real defenseless victims.

I think that today will mark a watershed in the ability of the Venezuelan opposition to keep a united front against the regime. Two things happened that force us to look dispassionately at what the hell is going on inside.

We will start by how the day started, with the regime dislodging a few tents set in some squares, a little bit like our own version of "Occupy Wall Street".  As expected the regime even "found" dollars inside those tents, as if anyone in Venezuela would be foolish enough to keep dollars with them in the street. Or does the top cop, Rodriguez Torres, ignore the crime curse over our country that he is absolutely unable/unwilling to stem? So, once again, there goes the credibility of the regime, though it is possible that some recreational drugs may have been present. Sue me Coloraddy!


I would like to note, by the way, that foreign press coverage of the day, which of course included violent protests and further repression and the death of a cop, shows that some media are not evolving at all whatsoever. For example, reading the BBC report, unsigned, you would almost feel sorry for Maduro et al, wondering about those poor cops so exposed to deadly fire. Then again the UK is in electoral mood and the BBC journos are probably rehearsing ways to support Labour. On the other hand at the NYT Neuman is making some progress and gets the right title, putting the focus where it belongs, on the 243 uncalled for arrests which certainly were enough provocation to send a trigger happy gun owner into paroxysm.  But I digress.

The protest, if the camping stations removal was not enough, benefited from gas on fire by a new postponement of Leopoldo Lopez hearing. After two months in jail, the guy still does not know exactly what he is charged for, what evidence is there of so heinous a crime that all judicial procedure are violated so he can remain in jail. But that, you do not read as much in the press, and not much from the MUD folks. But then again that brings us to the second item worth of notice today, someone in the MUD asking the US not to put sanctions on members of the regime accused of Human Rights violations.

The occasion came at a US Senate hearing where under secretary Roberta Jacobson was, well, not stellar.  Among an unwillingness by the US to commit to anything, she also blurted, refusing to give names, that some people inside the MUD asked her not to push for sanctions that this may wreck the dialogue between the MUD and the regime. Or something to that effect, I cannot find yet the exact wording or transcript, but the AP account is good enough for now. And there is also that video dubbed in Spanish where after minute 3:30 you hear that Senator Menendez is dubious of Jacobson.

The double agent Ramos Allup? Cozy with some
of the worst trash chavismo has to offer.

Now, I have absolutely no doubts that indeed there are people inside the MUD that are negotiating seriously with the regime, but not necessarily for the benefit of the opposition.  That this is true can be verified by the hurried and not quite coherent reply of Aveledo shortly after. Incoherent because even if he disagrees with the position I am sure he knows who did the betrayal. And he knew that he had to speak fast because editorials much worse than this one from the Post will start falling down his head.

Thus today a few things have been glaringly exposed:

1) the organized political opposition is not able to respond clearly to the aggression from the regime. Oh, sure, there are the supportive tweets, but it is also quite clear that some are only too happy to see those camps, those barricades disappear not for humanitarian reasons but because their own lack of control of the electoral opposition is made only too visible. That is why the MUD keeps repeating that the "students have their own agenda" as a way to abandon them to their fate, to avoid further internal division, to hide their inherent weakness and lack of creativity.

2) that Lopez judicial travesty did not create a reply from the MUD leaders besides the occasional supportive tweet make us remember that Lopez, and now Machado, seem to be pretty much abandoned to their fate. As if that would preserve the other members of the MUD from a similar fate down the road whenever the regime needs new enemies to justify its violence and repression. The fact of the matter is that the MUD has not attempted any significant support action. Correct me if I am wrong, if it goes beyond pious wishes and hashtags....

3) the unfortunate words of Jacobson confirm that indeed inside the MUD there are double agents and the MUD is unwilling, unable to confront them, to clear up the air. Why? Who finances the MUD that they can dictate such a double game that does not seem to match at all the Human Rights needs of the country? Are we to suspect that the MUD has become a mere pawn to be used in deciding within chavismo which side will win the final game?

4) for whatever despicable reasons of real politik, the unfortunate words of Jacobson also tell us that no one wants to intervene or deal with Venezuela, that from DC to BA all want stability in Venezuela even if it should be clear now that this is simply impossible as long as the Cuban masters insist on sucking dry our resources. In other words, from DC to Brasilia, the only care is to find ways to get Venezuela to pay its debts. Fuck its people if needed!

I do not know about you, but that list reads pretty much as the reasons why the MUD is doomed: waning credibility, waning support, waxing corrupt politicos. And they have only themselves to blame, from Capriles to Aveledo, who will pay the the price for these people that they have not been able to control or to lead. Nobody ever said that politics were fair.

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PS: to make sure you do not get dispirited, please read the opening statement of Moises Naim at the same hearing where Jacobson opened a Pandora box.  Naim is someone that understands the problem and has ideas on how to confront it. But is anyone listening?

Venezuela seeking the status of pariah state?

UPDATED
Is it what Venezuela is seeking? To become a pariah state and thus play the role of victim the way Cuba plays albeit being probably the country with the highest ratio per capita of concentration camps in the world? Let's see.

In the wee hours of the night the police descended on a series of camping grounds set at several public locations, you know, like the Occupy Wall Street camps. Though we can be pretty sure that the idiot left is not going to defend these camps for freedom set up by Venezuelan democratic students. So now we have at least 243 more students jailed.


This follows on the steps of the general conspiracy theory exposed by Rodriguez Torres which is a mere excuse to arrest anyone the regime dislikes under any pretext. Not to mention that the High Court has made it mandatory for any authority to snitch on any one protesting in a spontaneous way otherwise they will go to jail along the protester. Yesterday also the regime started the "legal" process that could end up in closing the last opposition radio station in Caracas. To top it all off, the "dialogue" table is going nowhere fast, as expected. The regime must have sensed that whatever time it could gain though a fake dialogue intention has been gained and there is no need to bother with that further.

In short all evidence points out that the regime is getting ready to go it solo on the world stage. After all, it did work for Cuba, why not Venezuela? Never mind that it may be better to chose to become a pariah state rather than to be pushed into one, which seems also a distinct possibility.

See, since the economy is tanking in Venezuela, many people are not only unwilling to defend Venezuela, but also criticism is heard more vocally.  For example, Diosdado Cabello, the Orwellian pig of the revolution, has just lost his visa to the US. Which is a double insult because the regime wanted him to be the head of a putative "dialogue table" with the US. The message from the US is clear: "it is a mockery to send us Cabello as a messenger, we are not the idiots at the MUD".

But there also some other nasty problems. For example a gigantic lawsuit between Conoco and Venezuela is lost and lost again when international courts have ruled that the appeals of Venezuela are, well, frivolous. Venezuela has no money to pay for its food imports, less to pay even a fraction of a multi-billion dollars law suit that comes from a fit of temper from Chavez, who now dead does not have to pay for his innumerable mistakes. Also the well oiled propaganda machine, which even in the best of times was not as effective as chavismo wanted, is creaking badly, at the worst time. One of the latest examples comes from Victoria Henderson hit job one the Weisbrots and Golinger bullshit, and the Cuban apologists who would be wiser to remain silent. With numbers.

To end this with a personal note, from my own surroundings I have learned that there is simply a stuck cog in the regime around Maduro that is making it simply impossible any positive change. It is the colonial master, Cuba, against an increasing rebellion even inside chavismo where pragmatics and nouveau riche start sensing trouble. The only true and tried way for chavismo to solve its inner contradictions is to spread money around, and since it has none to spare then Maduro wants now to take over the "cajas de ahorros" saving system of workers, usually for public employees. Even "prestaciones sociales", the mandatory funds that all employers must set aside for when workers leave, have become and objective of the regime. I need not give you more evidence than that to illustrate my point above.

So yes, becoming a pariah state is a good way to ignore all international sanctions, to steal all the savings from your own people, to forget once and for all about human right idiocies like free elections and protection from police brutality. Tempting, no? There are of course some inconveniences such as not being able to travel to nice places and resorts to spend you ill acquired cash, but heck, you remain the top dog in Venezuela and avoid jail. For a while at least.
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Update.

Tribunal 16 difiere audiencia preliminar de Leopoldo López, quien está siendo trasladado nuevamente a cárcel militar de Ramo Verde.
— isadora (@isadorazubi) May 8, 2014

Just to confirm what is exposed above, that the regime has not the faintest intention of releasing pressure, of sharing, or moving towards more democracy, of quieting down the waters, of whatever, the long OVERDUE hearing of Leopoldo Lopez was suspended again AFTER he was carried to the courts. In shorts, for those that are not familiar with the current state of the Venezuelan system, they are finding all sorts of delays not to have a Lopez hearing because they have no hard charges against him, but they still want him in jail. How do you call that?  A political prisoner? A prisoner of conscience?

Now, is anyone still pretending Venezuela is a functional democracy? Come on baby, make my day.

Political correctness running amok at CNN

I am outraged at this morning coverage made by CNN about the girls kidnapped by Boko Haram in Nigeria. I do not know what can be done in that particular situation but starting by reporting all the facts is definitely preferable at promoting wishful thinking hash-tags. Compare with the coverage of ABC in Spain where they report on organized rapes of these girls, forced conversions, forced spousals.  Then go back to the CNN page and search for, say, the word "rape". That is right, the kidnapping is a clean one, just your normal ransom search, let's not tag Islam or anything that could offend religious sensibilities.  CNN just sticks to the threats of slavery from Boko Haram for these girls, as I suppose slavery is more despicable than forced rape, conversion and what not.

And then you want me to trust CNN coverage of, say, Venezuela?  Where a benign dictator in favor of the poor is annoyed by a few rich kids that do not want to share? OK, I am exaggerating some but you get my point, I hope. Sometimes things should be denounced as they are and if the government of Nigeria is offended, then so be it. After all, like many Muslim majority countries, the moderate Muslims, the civilized ones, the ones heir of the intellectual tradition of Cordoba, are simply too afraid, or worse unwilling, to take a stand against their extremes as in the US CNN does against KKK and what not.

Sorry for that rant but double standards sometimes get me raw. The thing is that I am reaching a point that I wonder if there is any, ANY media worth watching. So far the Spaniards are the best, from their public TV to El Pais or ABC. No matter where they stand on the political spectrum they seem to at least agree on some standards applicable to all and everyone. Something that US media seem to have given up on with some honorable exceptions like the WaPo. But US TV, from all sides, simply suck.

The mythomania of Rodriguez Torres, when conspiracy theories run amok

I shall be brief: there are scarce explanations for Rodriguez Torres actions these past weeks.


The latest "boutade" of the Interior and Justice minister (security and police) is that behind all the troubles in Venezuela in the past couple of months there is a gigantic international conspiracy.  Lists of conspirators are being offered which, well, include anyone that does not like Maduro or the regime, or both, or R.T. or who knows what itches his rear end this day.

1) He truly believes that the chavista lumpen buys bait sink and hook anything he says.

2) He has no understanding whatsoever of what democracy and debate and conspiracy mean, truly. In other words, he is poorly educated.

3) He is desperate, out of ideas on how to control the country, the more so that chavismo is starting to settle inner scores through murders and what not as the recent Otaiza murder reveals. Scary stuff, the Otaiza thing, by the way.

4) He suffers of mythomania.

5) Or a combination of all of the above, he is a chavista after all.

Of course, I wonder if I need to remind the reader that Rodriguez Torres has no credibility whatsoever, that he is basically a criminal that pretends to be a dandy now. If you want more details read Diego Arria in Spanish doing a number on Rodriguez Torres. In other word, we can add perhaps a 6) item, that he is simply acting as a thug would do trying to keep control on his turf where he can practice his delinquent activities as he pleases. But I do not know how criminals think so I stick with the other 5 above which are in the realm of normal human emotions, not the chavista realm.

The money-losing machine in Caracas

A must read epic article on Venezuela's disaster at Foreign Policy. The last paragraph alone is worth the price:

Which brings us, finally, to the million-dollar question: In post-Chávez Venezuela, who has the political capital to institute the deep and painful reforms the country requires to break out of this wicked cycle? If Chávez himself -- who was the closest to God you can get in Venezuelan politics -- didn't dare to touch the gasoline subsidy or move against the Armed Forces' involvement in organized crime, who would dare? In the answer to that question, more than in the epic battles painted by the likes of María Corina Machado, lies the key to Venezuela's long term future.

May 1 follies

Let's look at the economic thermometer of today, Labor Day in Venezuela, a traditional populist day since I can remember when the president grants to the workers a hike in minimum wage. This time around, Maduro orders a 30% minimal wage increase. In time of crisis, the inflation at 60% is sure to gain fast a dozen points at the very least. Middle incomes cannot be adjusted at 30% so what we are going to see is a continuing pauperization of the working class AND the middle class. The rich, at least the bolibourgeois rich who do not need to follow the revolution's charge books will become richer.

It is not a matter of being pro or con minimum wage: in Venezuela it has become unfortunately a social stabilization factor, people always bitching at how low the increase is but willing to tune down protest while they have the brief illusion that they are better off. The problem here is that the regime, or almost any government in the past for that matter, fails to combine the politically moderating effect of a wage increase with new measures that would in the long term end the need for regular artificial wage increases. This time around is no exception: the regime has finally relented and allowed for the increase in prices of basic staples like chicken and coffee, but not enough to truly compensate for inflation, not enough to allow return of investment. As such, within days of being granted price increases the productive sector is hit by a 30% increase in personnel cost, and we will be back very soon to more scarcity, less purchasing power, etc.

In case you miss my point, let me tell you that it is pandemonium in Caracas today as there is a shortage of gas. As I arrived, duly warned and having pout gas leaving Maracay, I was trapped in a couple of bottle necks due to frantic people trying to get inside gas stations still operating.

The crisis is getting worse, not better, and the regime, trapped in its contradictions and own interest groups is unable to make the real decisions. So let's increase wages. After all, the regime will pay public workers with printed Monopoly currency.

PS: I am personally for the existence of minimal wages, but not when those become an hindrance to economic development or populist tools. That is, fixing minimal wage should be taken away from the hands of the executive power.

PS 2: from reports I see the regime and the opposition called for May first rallies. The opposition won, hands down, in spite of the buses I saw on my way to Caracas.