Another thoroughly wasted year in Venezuela

The title, now that I think of it, is misleading. 2014 has not only being wasted, but it has also been destructive. We failed to advance on any aspect, and we went back quite a lot on others.


So yesterday Maduro held a press conference where supposedly he was going to announce economic measures. Of course I do not follow Maduro's addresses at all. Chavez, on occasion , I could tolerate. Listening to Maduro is always insulting to your intelligence, web/newspapers will suffice next day. Yesterday was no exception as the BBC itself reports (a joint which has been rather forgiving on Maduro):

He [Maburro Maduro]accused the United States of flooding the markets with oil as part of an economic war against Russia.
He said his country was suffering the consequences of an economic war launched by US President Barack Obama "to destroy" the oil producers' cartel, Opec.
"It is a two-year plan, which is affecting the prices of commodities and many developing economies," Mr Maduro said.
"The US wants to impose a unipolar world controlled from Washington. That is madness."
The crisis offered a "great opportunity for Venezuela to change its economic model," the president added.

It is simply amazing that Maburro Maduro keeps repeating the nonsense that the US is "flooding" the markets. I mean, the guy is president of a country and responsible of finding a lifeline somewhere. Has nobody told him that such idiotic display of ignorance and misinformation is a sure way to scare any possible bail out candidate?

But to add idiocy to ignorance Maduro speaks of a "two year plan"  without offering any proof, that Washington is trying to impose an unipolar world when Obama has been extensively criticized from his disengagement from the world, accused even of "isolationist" in the great old US tradition. This last one is particularly irking as Europe had to do the dirty job in Libya and if Syria is such a basket case is due in part of Obama's refusal to intervene as long as he could get away with it. Is Maduro that ignorant of what happened to his "allies"?

And of course Maduro rehashes the argument that Venezuela is going to change its economic model even though Chavez profusely while leaving Venezuela almost exclusively dependent of what oil it can export. Does Maduro believes the bulk of these journalists do not know that?

I think that at this point it must be a deliberate strategy of Maduro to come out as more ignorant than what he really is [dumb he is not, after all his intrigues landed him at Miraflores]. Watch Russian TV, RT, and you will see journalists repeating the same nonsense. Even our own Eva Golinger, recycled from track writer to alleged journalist, interviewed Cabello who said point blank that the opposition is who stole all the money through CADIVI. Were Golinger a journalist she could have pointed out that chavismo has been controlling CADIVI all the time while this cash passed away. But Golinger who is to journalism what I am to, well, I cannot come with an example. I can even assert that if I wanted to be a hack at RT I probably would do a better job than she does.

Whatever. The point here is that authoritarian petro states who did not invest their resources in semi sensible ways are hurting and have no choice but to launch a propaganda campaign once the price of oil collapsed.

But I have been digressing. The point is that Maduro called for a press conference to announce measures and he only announced that these will be announced next year.  To compensate he offered the same set of platitudes, including choice items like "it is forbidden to decrease social spending". Sure, through printing bolivares and devaluation of the currency at will it is possible to prove to the hurdled masses that in #bolivares social spending remains the same....

Thus 2014 came and went, the regime did nothing to deal with the crisis. That paralysis in turn made things worse and with the fall of oil prices we are bewildered as to what to do. The regime is itself in panic mode and we are batedly waiting if reform or communism are to be announced next month.

In Venezuela criminals are appointed to the High Court, TSJ (UPDATED)

Maikel Moreno salad days

The current cycle of the regime tight hold on ALL levers of power and decision is finally over: the high court has been packed solid red. As I wrote in a previous post, nothing is to be surprising there: the regime knows it has lost the majority in the country and since it is a mere band of thugs it is preparing itself to find ways to remain in control no matter what. This is the way thugs/mafia/criminals operate.

The only surprise here, whatsoever, is the brazenness of the whole thing. And today takes the top price as a criminal is one of the newly appointed 12 "justices". One would have hoped that the regime would have found some tiny fig leaf to hide the impudence of its actions. But no. For example, two of the "justices" appointed are directly involved in flagrant irregularities of Simonovis case, Marjorie Calderon and Maikel Moreno. This last one was already a legal creep in the Puente Llaguno and Danilo Anderson affairs.


Then again let's not forget that the previous chair of the TSJ, Luisa Estela Morales, had been fired because of her incompetence, not once, twice. Never mind that the whole TSJ was filmed a few years ago singing as a chorus "Uh, Ah, Chavez no se va" (and here at 4:10, and even clearer here, the infamous 2006 session).

The requirements to be a "justice" in Venezuela is not that you are a legal eagle, that your prose and logic are impeccable.  No, the only requirement is that you are willing to sign any sentence that those who truly hold power send you.

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@dolartoday has the full "prontuario" (penal record?) of Maikel Moreno, today sworn in as a "justice" to the highest court of Venezuela, TSJ (it bears repeating!)

El Honorable Mikel. Les presento a uno de los futuros magistrados al Tribunal Supremo de Justicia. #NoValeYoNoCreo pic.twitter.com/o5jxsNUT5U
— DolarToday (@DolarToday) December 23, 2014

Translation:
1987 murder in Ciudad Bolivar
1989 associated with another murder
1990 manages to go free
1993 secretary in some Caracas court (!!!!!)
1995 becomes lawyer from the Santa Maria U. (one of the easiest universities to get a degree from, little bit more than signing attendance sheet)
2002 defends one of the regime murderers of 2002 April
2003 becomes a minor judge in Caracas (!!!!)
2004 issues arrest order against Simonovis
2005 judge in charge of Anderson case (where he did forgeries)
2007 suspended in March and fired in June
2014 TSJ "justice".

Zeitgeist at Arapito

This holiday period had to provide us rich evidence on the country's degradation, none as telling as the mass robbery at Arapito beach.

Arapito used to be one of the paradise beach Venezuela had decades ago, even featuring in European tourism posters. I still remember going there as a kid as a stop over on the road to Cumana, our annual vacation outing then. Since then mass tourism has come, but not of the good type. Thinning coconut trees, greasy spoon stands, noisy crowd on holidays. I certainly will not spoil my fond memories by going back there, the more so after the mass robbery that took place yesterday.


About half a dozen guys with masks and war weapons dropped off a peñero (local type of fishing boat) to rob the 300 or so visitors to the beach as well as the stand owners. Even though these last ones had the time to call for police, this one lasted over an hour to show up. By then the robbers had left on another stolen peñero (the original one having broken down). The robbery was so thorough that even one of them stole the dog of a little girl. Folks were left, well, a little bit more naked than what they were minutes ago. It is to be noted that although the robbers could not steal the cars for obvious nautical reasons, they still took property titles of the vehicles parked in the area: getting a property title is difficult today for basic lack of plastic supplies so those are valuable for stolen cars that need some "validation".

When everything was done, the incensed locals, accused outright of complicity by the incompetent local "security" authorities even though they clearly live off tourism decided to block the main road. The scandal became large enough that even the prosecutor office had to be disturbed from its holiday and intrigues in Caracas to dispatch someone to Arapito.

This being narrated, what is this so zeitgeisty?

Let's begin by the reporting of the event. It started on Twitter and I already knew about it on the 26 at night. Yet no official media reported on it until next day, and minimizing the fact as much as possible. For example media favorable to the regime passes along the news as 5 people that robbed only 30 beach goers. Certainly the 300 beach goers did not have all their purses and cel phones and tablets around their neck while splashing in the Caribbean waters, but the terror was shared by all.  It is impressive the way news reporting has been automatized by regime media and its recently acquired associates such as once upon a time independent Ultimas Noticias. Whenever the regime is at fault, news are delayed until an official line is emitted.

Let's talk about security now. We will pass on what is standard excuse by now: if it is not the fault of the evil empire and the fascist right then it is due to the locals complicity. Certainly in most crimes of this nature, here or abroad, there is some form of local informer associated with the planning of the crime. But this should never be used as an excuse by the authorities for their inexcusable delays, even less to put ALL the locals on the bench. These folks maybe simple minded and willing to rip off tourists as much as they can get away with it but they are hardworking and know very well their livelihood depends on tourists coming back to Arapito.

And let's go into the tourism ministry led by Andres Rizarrarita Izarra, who became infamous internationally after laughing off loudly crime in Venezuela during a CNN interview on crime. He has pretended since he got that job that tourism in Venezuela is fine, that it is safe, that it is of easy access. And yet Arapito is the prime example on how what should be a treasured beach, a national landmark, does not even have apparently a life saver that could also turn into a security guard as needed. As it is the case in Venezuela, it is all talk, all promises, no actions, no anchoring to reality. But in the case of Izarra it is particularly foul as this one has sponsored an expensive campaign with a comic character, "Cheverito", that tries to convince us that Venezuela is a tourism paradise when you cannot go to the corner deli without the risk of being mugged. Without counting on other problems for tourism such as power outage, non potable water in faucets, lack of toilet paper.... But then again the "cheverito" misión is just another propaganda ploy.

And so goes the deliquescent country.

Amused by the latest "coup" in Venezuela

So, I start my day with this:

Los principales líderes de la oposición deben pronunciarse nacionalmente e internacionalmente ante el golpe de Estado del gobierno.
— Leopoldo Castillo (@elcitizen) December 27, 2014

The main leaders of the opposition must express themselves [condemn?] nationally and internationally as to the coup from the government. 

Oh my, oh my!  Kind of late, no?

There is no doubt that the recent appointment of the "poder moral", the CNE and the high court (in a few hours) have been done against the constitution, never mind its spirit. No doubt whatsoever, even for chavismo whose brazen hurry in the whole thing is as perfect a confession as you could hope for.

So, why am I amused?


It is funny that suddenly so many people who have prided themselves of a certain circumspection in the past, or who denounced the dictatorship and forgot about it, are suddenly so vocal on the subject. And Castillo is not the one I have in mind specifically: I am certain he was aware of the dictatorship for a long time but his social notoriety and duties inhibited him from loud accusations no matter how true these could be. But he has waited too long for it, just as the opposition MUD has waited too long for a credible reaction now.

See, all that happened this week, all that happened when the election was stolen from Capriles in 2013, all that happened when the succession of Chavez was crassly manipulated, all the legal delays that should have never been, the firing of elected representatives, and more, all comes from the basic self neutering of the national assembly elected in 2010.

For those who do not read this blog with the regularity you should :-), the scheduled national assembly election of December 2010 was advanced illegally by three months. The regime rightly expected that it would lose the 2/3 majority it needed to rule unfettered. The prediction having been fulfilled the regime had sill in place for 3 months the outgoing assembly that, in spite of losing its legitimacy, decided on an enabling law that lasted 18 month and which gave Chavez the necessary absolute control to rule until his reelection campaign in 2012.

That enabling law was, as far as this blog was concerned, a coup and should have been denounced vigorously by the opposition. Yet, this one accepted to take its seats. The more unacceptable that the outgoing assembly did also change the rules of the assembly allowing the chavista "majority" to effectively silence the debate and control attributions of opposition representatives.

That is why I am amused: where is the credibility of the opposition today to denounce that, say, Tibisay Lucena remains at the helm of the electoral board CNE to allow all sorts of electoral cheating?  Now that it is public and notorious that some "leaders" of the MUD like Ramos Allup are "negotiating" to preserve their interests I doubt very much that anything will even be attempted from the MUD, no matter what Castillo wishes. What is discouraging people to vote are not the multiple coups perpetrated by the regime, but the absolute distrust that some in the MUD now inspire, its loss of the little bit of backbone it had until 2012. For all practical purposes the 2015 elections are already lost. The worst is that the regime may actually not need to cheat!

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I wrote a series of portraits in Spanish as to some of those responsible for the dictatorship and those responsible specifically for the 2010 coup. Clearly, at least one person knew that today would come.

Ah! And least I forget, as far as I am concerned this has been a dictatorship since 2004.

Is it possible that I am the lone Cassandra in this fucking joint?

2015 has already started in Venezuela

And no, it is not that we have an obscure date line that we cross on our own. It is that the obscure power struggle inside chavismo is already in full swing, not waiting to be a 2015 crisis fall out.

Today Rafael Ramirez, once upon a time under Chavez the tsar of the wallet, has been demoted once more. A very few months ago having been pushed from holder of the oil purse to Foreign Minister, he is now mere ambassador to the UN. This confirms that a second group inside chavismo has lost its position and that the battle among the remaining surviving factions to occupy that space is in full swing. And the substitute to Ramirez indicates which are the factions on the rise: the lunatic left.

But first let's look at Ramirez downfall. Downfall, yes, no matter what lame excuse is advanced by Maduro that Ramirez will fight for  world peace better by sitting in the UN Security Council. As if that Council had achieved anything notable in recent memory. Which bring the interesting question about the life of the Chavez daughter that was sent there last October. Maybe Maduro already forgot? Who is the real ambassador at the UN? Can the regime hopes to make a difference through ambassadorial revolving doors?

Why did Ramirez finally fall? Because he was the only one that made a tiny bit of sense inside chavismo. Oh, he was not a bright light, but at least he understood that if you want to make the revolution world wide you need cash; and to get the type of cash revolutionaries will accept you need more than just a printing press. As such, once Giordani was ejected Ramirez set up on the task to convince chavismo that there should be some order put into state finances. After all, he knew better than anyone else the dismal situation looming on the horizon as having been himself the main culprit for the downfall of PDVSA, Venezuela oil company once upon a time golden goose.

Ramirez could risk it as his own power base inside chavismo was rather small even though arguably the one with the biggest potential influence. He could aspire at bringing around some consensus. After all Ramirez had the power of blackmail knowing very well who stole what and when and how much. But he miscalculated the extent of chavismo internecine fights where no one was willing to give an inch or power. So in the end, rather than making some crucial economic decisions they all found it easier to agree in sidelining him. Oh!  They could not fire him outright of course. Chavez almost never did so. Failed operators were sent into the sweet oblivion of an overseas embassy.

But Ramirez is also paying for having "failed" to keep oil barrel at 100 USD. The autistic regime cannot understand the reasons why oil is now below 60, neither Ramirez can, and even less Maduro. But Cuba does and sent Venezuela packing. Which I am sure made  Maduro pass that additional anger on Ramirez... (1)

At least there is a piece of good news for Ramirez there: he has the excuse to bring his family out of Venezuela and never come back if he wishes.

Before we go into the general context let's look at who is replacing Ramirez at the foreign office: Jorge Rodriguez sister, Delcy Rodriguez, one of the most odious person in the regime. Odious because vindictive, incompetent, ignorant and what not. But a true radical, out there to exact revenge for real or imaginary wrongs, no difference for her and her brother. This is exactly what the regime needs right now as foreign minister: somebody unable to understand the subtleties of language in front, someone with no sense of ridicule whatsoever, someone willing to scream bloody murder no matter what. Dictatorships have often Foreign Ministers like that as mouth pieces while the real work is done discretely elsewhere (which who would be lucky if someone in the regime could do "discreet" work...)

Let's add to this that in spite of all international warnings the regime is making life even more miserable for political prisoners, has eschewed any pretense at dialogue, political opening, and what not. This week, after naming three radicals to high civil rights positions, having made sure that the Electoral Board will remain in its hand, chavismo is about to pack 100%  the High Court, likely including judges with a criminal record...

It is thus quite clear which are the factions of chavismo gaining the upper hand: the radical/thug groups. They are the ones that knows they have no future if they have to leave office, because they either will be blamed for the 2015 crisis or they will go to jail. They are thus preparing themselves to become an outright dictatorship.

Do we have any glimmer of hope? Not much even though that radical/thug is divided in sub groups: narco military, corrupt nincompoop but cruel revolutionaries (e.g. the Rodriguez), corrupt military, and other assorted idiots with blinders (the opposition has become insignificant). I think that for the time being their animal survival instinct will postpone major break up. We still have to wait for the first serious food riots, probably as early as the first quarter of 2015 already running as the last reserves were depleted the week before Christmas. We will see what happens when these start.

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1) A sharp critic may observe that it is simply impossible that Ramirez cannot understand the reasons for oil prices fall. Well, maybe Ramirez understands them but he either refuses to accept it, or is unable to make the other understand. Same difference to me.

Leopoldo Lopez versus Diosdado Cabello

Two major newspapers have published letters as OpEd from the two sides of the Venezuelan spectrum. I will let you judge by yourself comparing them. I also re-publish them integrally so you do not need to seek the the links.

The first one was in the New York Times, which editorial policy seems to have changed quite a lot since it decided to help exculpate the Castro brothers, or at least to have them exculpated enough to "justify" renewing ties with Cuba. Their point man for that having been a Colombian background journalist, Londoño. The least that we can say about his texts was that even himself could not sound very convincing about his attempt at ooohs! and aaahs over Cuba today. If charitably I could try to accept the notion that the pro Castro moment was dictated by "higher state interests" of the US, the Op Ed below, supposeldy written by Diosdado Cabello, head of the Nazional Assembly is a clumsy disgrace. Read:

Hectoring Venezuela on Human Rights
By DIOSDADO CABELLODEC. 17, 2014

CARACAS, Venezuela — IT seemed an unfortunate coincidence that just as scores of people demonstrating against police brutality were being arrested on the streets of New York and other cities, the United States Congress passed a bill to bring sanctions against members of my country’s government for alleged human rights abuses during protests earlier this year.

While Congress accused Venezuela’s government of cracking down on dissent, African-American communities across the United States expressed outrage over police killings of unarmed black men. Then, as legislators on Capitol Hill criticized Venezuelan officials for purported violations of democratic norms, a Senate report revealed the extent of torture by the Central Intelligence Agency.

The antigovernment protests in our country that began in February resulted in the deaths of more than 40 people, many of whom were either pro-government supporters or innocent bystanders. Of those deaths, a significant number were caused by antigovernment demonstrators, who used violence to try to oust our democratically elected government. Rather than engaging in lawful and peaceful demonstrations, those protesters used barricades and burning debris to block streets. They also caused the deaths of several motorcyclists by stringing wires across roads.

Our government responded with restraint, allowing those violent demonstrations to go on for several months. Every effort was made to ensure that only protesters who directly violated laws or placed the lives of others in danger were detained. For example, those responsible for burning public buses with Molotov cocktails, or who set fire to a public university, were rightly arrested and charged — as were 17 state security agents accused of using excessive force against protesters, who are awaiting trial.

Eventually, our citizens grew tired of those protests and their incoherent tactics, which only created chaos and insecurity in our streets. The unrest subsided, and the opposition lost credibility. The leader of the opposition coalition Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (the Democratic Unity Roundtable) subsequently resigned after disagreements within the organization.

After the death of my good friend, and our president, Hugo Chávez, almost two years ago, our country has experienced a series of difficulties, including economic problems. As president of the National Assembly and the vice president of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, which was founded by Mr. Chávez, I have worked with President Nicolás Maduro to find viable solutions.

To respond to the falling price of oil, which underpins our economy, we are cutting public spending by 20 percent. But we will not cut funding to our key social programs, which provide essential medical care, education and welfare to our citizens. We are also taking measures to battle the high inflation that has plagued our nation over the past two years, and we are battling to end the black-market dollar trading that sabotages our foreign exchange system.

Some months ago, Mr. Maduro extended an olive branch to the Obama administration by naming an ambassador to the United States, and inviting Washington to name an ambassador to Venezuela. Mr. Maduro also named me to lead a high-level commission to repair relations with the United States government. To date, President Obama has neither accepted our ambassador, nor offered his own in return. And there has been no sign from Washington of any intent to engage with my commission.

Imposing sanctions against a country that has caused no harm to the United States is no way to move toward a constructive relationship. Unilateral sanctions against other nations have usually failed and have been rejected by a majority of the international community.

In Cuba, a decades-long trade embargo caused great hardship but failed to realize the United States’ objective of ending the Cuban revolution. The United Nations’ many votes to lift the embargo exposed how isolated Washington had been in its policy. It would be regrettable if sanctions against Venezuela, first opposed by the White House, now became a way for the Obama administration to appease those in Congress who oppose the historic restoration of relations between the United States and Cuba.

A majority of Venezuelans, regardless of party affiliation, reject these sanctions and view them as baseless aggression. We will not be bullied by efforts to weaken or discredit our government.

We have tried to move toward improving relations with the Obama administration, but have been rebuffed. We can only wonder if the timing of these sanctions is an attempt to distract public opinion from the exposure of rights violations by United States law enforcement officers.

Diosdado Cabello is the president of the National Assembly of Venezuela.

A version of this op-ed appears in print on December 18, 2014, on page A39 of the New York edition with the headline: Hectoring Venezuela on Rights.

This been done, the Wall Street Journal which along the Washington Post has been the most consistent critics of Cuba and Venezuela (with their differences but clear objectives both) has published a letter from jail, already a tad more challenging if you get my drift. It comes from Leopoldo Lopez that we can be sure has had a hand in its redaction, and in English of course, compared to the one from Diosdado that he may not have been writing himself in Spanish (I will gladly publish a picture of his manuscript first draft if he has penned it, proving me wrong: after all having blocked me on Twitter assures me that his people follow me).

Letter From a Venezuelan Jail
I am one of scores of political prisoners locked away because of our words and ideas.

By: Leopoldo López, Dec. 26, 2014

Los Teques, Venezuela – My country, Venezuela, is on the verge of social and economic collapse. This slow-motion disaster, nearly 15 years in the making, was not initiated by falling oil prices or by mounting debts. It was set in motion by the authoritarian government’s hostility toward human rights and the rule of law and the institutions that protect them.

I know this on an all-too personal level. I am writing from a military prison, where I have been held since February as a result of speaking out against the government’s actions. I am one of scores of political prisoners in my country who are locked away because of their words and ideas.

This unjust incarceration has given me a firsthand view of the pervasive abuses—legal, mental and physical—perpetrated by the ruling elite in my country. It has not been a good experience, but it has been an enlightening one.

My isolation also has given me time to think and reflect on the larger crisis facing my country. It has never been clearer to me that Venezuela’s road to ruin was paved years ago by a movement to dismantle basic human rights and freedoms in the name of an illusory vision of achieving greater good for the masses through the centralization of power.

When the current ruling party, the United Socialist Party, first took power in 1999, its supporters viewed human rights as a luxury, not a necessity. Large segments of the population were living in poverty, and in need of food, housing and security. Protecting free speech and the separation of powers seemed frivolous. In the name of expediency, these values were compromised and then dismantled entirely.

The legislature was neutered, allowing the executive to rule by decree without the checks and balances that prevent government from veering off track. The judiciary was made accountable to the ruling party, rendering the constitution and the law meaningless. In an infamous 2009 case, Judge Mary Lourdes Afiuni was imprisoned for ordering the release of a businessman and government critic who had been held for three years in pretrial detention, one year more than allowed under Venezuelan law.

Meanwhile, political leaders—myself included—were persecuted and imprisoned, stifling the competition of ideas that could have led to better decisions and policies. Independent news organizations were dismantled, seized or driven out of business. The “sunshine that disinfects,” and the scrutiny that motivates good decision-making, no longer benefit our leadership.

Venezuela’s current president, Nicolás Maduro, has taken this to a terrible new low. Rights are rationed as though they were scarce goods to be traded for other means of subsistence: You may have employment if you give away your free speech. You may have some health benefits if you give away your right to protest.

Apologists, many from other countries, including the U.S., say these sacrifices were and are for the collective good of the country. Yet the lives of Venezuelans, especially the poor, are worse by every measure. Inflation, at more than 60%, is rampant. Scarcity of basic goods has led to empty shelves and long lines. Violent crime is skyrocketing and the murder rate is the second highest in the world, behind only Honduras. The health-care system is collapsing. And many financial experts are predicting a default on the country’s debts in a matter of months.

The challenges now facing Venezuela are complex and will require years of work on many fronts. That work must begin with restoring the rights, freedoms and checks and balances that are the proper foundation of civil society.

The international community has an important role to play—especially our neighbors in Latin America. To remain silent is to be complicit in a disaster that doesn’t just impact Venezuela but could have implications across the hemisphere. Organizations such as the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) and the South American trade bloc Mercosur must come off the sidelines. Countries such as Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Argentina must get involved.

At home, our constitution provides a way forward if we will heed its words. Our proposal is simple but powerful: All rights for all people. Not some rights for some people. No regime should have the power to decide who gets access to which rights. This idea may be taken for granted in other countries, but in my country, Venezuela, it is a dream worth fighting for.
Mr. López is the former mayor of the Chacao district of Caracas and the leader of the Popular Will opposition party.

I for one think the former to be written by a spoiled brat that wants to hold the ball during recess if the other kids do not want to play by his rules. The second letter is by a statesman. Enough said.

The Christmas 2014 post

Dear readers, it is time to wish you a merry Christmas. At least, if you have the luck to reside outside of Venezuela the odds that your Christmas will be at least decent are good. Here in Venezuela it is going to be one the saddest Christmas in a long time, with significant odds of getting even worse in December 2015.


One of the striking facts this year is the paucity of fireworks. Usually by December 15 at the latest pets are rattled by frequent explosions. This year, I swear, I may hear one or two a day at most, and usually if Magallanes Baseball team wins (it is Venezuela's season).  But drive through the streets of Caracas and Christmas decoration are scarce, in homes as well as in stores.  Never mind the sparsely stacked shelves. And yet traffic is more infernal than ever. Why? People need to visit twice as many malls to get at least the basics so that the Christmas of their children may not be too dreary. And drive three times as many to find the ingredients of will be this year a rather simplified Christmas table.

Comfort this year will be more like an US Thanksgiving, the joy of being alive and still be able to gather with your loved ones. But one thing is to be willing to celebrate that, the other to be forced into that lone option when you cannot quite do so considering that a million and a half Venezuelans have left the country since Chavez was elected.

As for me, it has been a very difficult year. Not only work problems have grown, it seems, exponentially, but it has been a continuous battle to help my cancer stricken S.O. You need to go though the trial of taking care of a complex disease to understand how inhumane Venezuela has become in the last decade, from a bureaucracy that could not care less about your troubles, to the difficulty to find the basics, to the hardship to navigate with a sick person through the run down streets and sanitary installations of the country, private or not. Basically you are at the mercy of the goodwill of a few, even if you have cash in hand.

But we made it through the year, and we even formalized our civil union after 15 years together. Not in Venezuela, of course, where the homophobic regime wants nothing to do with gay rights of any type. If gays have rights that would imply that other groups should also have rights, isn't it not? Certainly the regime cannot allow people to entertain such notions. So we did it at an embassy which allows me to chose my S.O. and recognize legally the union, though no marriage as this one can only be held in the country of "origin".  Venezuela explicitly forbade celebration of gay marriages in local embassies. I let you guess the reasons why the "freedom revolution" of Chavez cannot even follow the simple foot steps of other Latin American countries.

I will be thankful this year that all my close ones are alive, that we managed to find almost all the treatments required for my S.O., that we are still not broke, that if a cure is very unlikely we may still make it sort of a chronic condition.

One day at a time.

But that does not stop me from thanking all readers though this year, for giving me the motivation to still write as a way to escape reality, for a few minutes at the computer. Is it not strange that escaping reality is now through writing about that reality?

Merry Christmas to all.

@dcabellor blocks me! A Twitter consecration!

Contrary to many people I make a point to put the Twitter account of those that I do criticize on Twitter. It is just fair, it gives them a chance to reply back if they wish, it proves that I am not a hypocrite. Well, Diosdado Cabello, a frequent target of my tweets, does indeed read my tweets and does not like them (or whoever manages his account, the more likely possibility!) So I have been blocked! I am tickled pink!

Some democrat! does the NYT knows about that?

Which is totally stupid anyway as I can open another account and read his tweets, criticize him, until I am blocked again. But such idiots can only get so much of my time...  thin skin....

Another day, another constitutional violation (UPDATED)

It cannot be any clearer (my emphasis)

Artículo 279. El Consejo Moral Republicano convocará un Comité de Evaluación de Postulaciones del Poder Ciudadano, que estará integrado por representantes de diversos sectores de la sociedad; adelantará un proceso público de cuyo resultado se obtendrá una terna que será sometida a la consideración de la Asamblea Nacional que, mediante el voto favorable de las dos terceras partes de sus integrantes, escogerá en un lapso no mayor de treinta días continuos al o a la titular del órgano del Poder Ciudadano que esté en consideración. Si concluido este lapso no hay acuerdo en la Asamblea Nacional, el Poder Electoral someterá la terna a consulta popular.
En caso de no haber sido convocado el Comité de Evaluación de Postulaciones del Poder Ciudadano, la Asamblea Nacional procederá, dentro del plazo que determine la ley, a la designación del titular del órgano del Poder Ciudadano correspondiente.
Los y las integrantes del Poder Ciudadano serán removidos por la Asamblea Nacional, previo pronunciamiento del Tribunal Supremo de Justicia, de acuerdo con lo establecido en la ley.

Article 279 of the constitution states clearly that the three holders of "citizen power" are to be named by a 2/3 vote of the national assembly after a lengthy process of selection. If the assembly cannot reach a 2/3 agreement, a list of three candidates will be submitted to popular election to fill the 7 year terms.

Using as an excuse an obscure ruling, unconstitutional of course, of the high court the National Assembly today elected by a simple majority the three holders for the next 7 years.

Infamous Luisa Ortega, the nazi-like prosecutor of the regime, a woman so degraded, was of course renewed in her tenure. At this point she might as well hold to it: sort of shooting her victims herself, how much lower can she really go?

For ombudsman or "people defender" a total Chavez apparatchik was named with Tarek Saab. In this most delicate position that requires equilibrium and an absolute lack of partisanship the regime has put someone who used to be close to Chavez but was pushed aside the inner circle by putting him as governor of Anzoategui. After leaving the state he was in sort of an oblivion until his resurrection this week, all steroided up.  The funny thing here is that before Chavez he used to be known as a human rights defender, but once Chavez made it to Miraflores Tarek became a promoter for the theory that human rights only existed for chavistas.

As for the third one, the "republic's comptroller" a quiet discreet figure was appointed to make sure that the boat of corruption shall not be rocked. Manuel Galindo, close to the current power structure, knows very well where the corruption is, so we can be sure he will know how to hold his agents and how to unleash them when the regime needs a purge or something.

There is of course no surprise in the whole thing though even at this late in the game we still manage a little bit of amazement at the brashness of the whole thing.  But there is a simple explanation for yet another constitutional violation (and more to come in the next days for the high court and electoral board appointments). The regime can read polls and knows that even naked electoral fraud may not save it from a new National Assembly next year, controlled by the opposition. Never mind that the economic crisis will get worse by the day.

Thus the regime is preparing itself in any way it can to hold to levers that will attenuate as much as possible a putative opposition victory. A national Assembly voided of significant power in a system where all the controls of the state operate to further annul its action is an option for the regime that it cannot pass on.

NOTE: I assume that there will be elections that will be held in conditions that will allow for an opposition victory. But of course, the regime can find lots of excuses to postpone or void elections, for example through food riots sponsored by the regime itself.

At any rate, if any one thought remotely that there was the possibility of dialogue in the country, today they were set right. Now, what is the opposition going to do? Nothing, that is  my bet.

UPDATE: Bruni gives a perfect explanation, in Spanish, of the high court ruling that allowed for the constitutional violation.

2014: the year all and nothing changed

In Venezuelan history books, when the real ones will be written, it is possible that 2014 will be qualified as the year as all changed and yet nothing changed. 2014 will be framed between 2013 the year chavismo became an outright dictatorship and 2015 the year when all went to hell.

I suppose that a long time blogger must cave in to the routine of writing a year in review post. So might as well get over with it, even before writing a Merry Xmas post. And yet 2014 may still be full of surprise in Venezuela like the regime shutting out the opposition from any of the administrative post it deserves in a normal democracy (1). But the essential has been done: short of a major earthquake, tsunami or meteor crash, the deed that matters is done for Venezuela for 2014.

The year started after the infamous "dakazo" of November 2013, where allowing "legal" looting the regime ensured a municipal electoral victory the following December.  The stage was set for a regime ready for any trickery to flatter the bulk of a populace just out to grab anything regardless of the consequences. The first consequence was that the regime entered paralysis in doing anything that was not a give away, without cash for it. The second consequence was a division inside the opposition, between those that were not going to keep taking abuse from the regime and those who, well, may be talked into tolerating such abuses.

January woke up with empty shelves in all electronic, hardware, furniture stores and the like. These shelves never got replenished.  Some stores on occasion got some shipments that usually were tightly controlled by the Nazional Guard, if anything for them to have first pick. Thus started the constant item of this year, random scarcity of goods. Paper toilet did come back on a regular basis but never did milk while toiletries and laundry detergent are now treasure troves.


February, as it is often the case in Venezuelan history, saw a new popular protest. Unfortunately for this one, even though polls reflected discontent inside chavista strongholds, these ones left the students to hang out high and dry, preferring to stand in line for food, I suppose assuming that the absence of people protesting will shorten the waiting lines. But in all earnest, a significant chunk of the opposition did not accompany those who protested. Yet, possibly a million people attended the surrender of Leopoldo Lopez and that was bad news for him. From then on Primero Justicia and AD would slowly but surely for all practical purposes withdraw their support.

March was full of protests and full of growing repression from the regime. The pictorial record of violence from the regime is flabbergasting. The torture in jails have been duly documented for almost 200 cases. But thousand of "incidents" are still floating in the air.

As April rolled in and as chavista areas remained quiet, the regime could brag of some success. But what the regime did not quite realize was that its image was shot for good.  Perhaps if Chavez had done that repression many people would have been willing to look the other way, just as so many are looking the other way at the crimes of Fidel Castro now that Obama is playing nice with Cuba. But neither Maduro nor Cabello can coattail Chavez. It certainly did not help that a feeble "dialogue" temptation between regime and opposition went nowhere fast, considering the clear intransigence of the regime.

In May it became clearer why Maduro and Cabello were being rejected more than expected: once the tear gas dissolved some we could cry over the deteriorating Venezuelan economy. Of course, people in the know were aware that since 2012 Venezuela is in dire need to adjust its spending, liberalize its economy, take measures to promote local production. Meanwhile May started with a 30% increase of the minimum wage while the inflation was already calculated at 60%. It seemed that rationality was not an option for the regime.

June brought the only glimmer of hope that the regime would start doing something about the economy after 2 years of paralysis. Giordani, the architect of the current disaster, was finally dismissed after a decade and a half in office. But Ramirez put in place could not do anything, assuming he actually wanted to do something, and assuming that what he proposed made sense. Within months he would be pushed away from the state wallet to foreign relations where he has had no success that I can think of.

July was the month where consequences of the previous year started to come home. Divisions started becoming more apparent within chavismo with the vocal raise of "Marea Socialista", a loony fringe left à la PODEMOS in Spain. The opposition did not fare better as its chair was forced out and some speakers started betraying their real agenda, like being pleased with the continuous arrest of Lopez. More ominously the last newspaper with the means to do investigative reporting, with an independent and critical voice went to the dark side as it got new owners STILL not officially identified to date. Since July there are only TWO national newspaper left to criticize the regime. And no network. But the worst of the months was perhaps the international recognition of Venezuela as a narco pariah state with the arrest and release of Carvajal in Aruba. If anyone had doubts about the thuggish nature of the regime, thug as in mafia, the pressure put on the Netherlands and Aruba for the release of Carvajal, our most notorious narco general, was there to enlighten them.

Through August we got a better sense of how adrift the regime was, of its total inability to change anything in good or in bad. The trial of Lopez became an international joke and started gathering condemnations from each quarter, even from the UN. Maduro went once again to Cuba but it started looking more and more as if he were merely receiving orders. We know why now. What was more worrisome is that the regime started discussing official forms of rationing and revealed its inability to control borders by displaying a gigantic army operation to try to stem smuggling to Colombia. We all wonder what percentage of that smuggling is back into place today... But the worst of all was the start of the selling of CITGO, the jewel in the crown, the final acknowledgement that the regime was bankrupt. And yet the price of oil had not started its precipitous fall, though people in the know knew that prices were destined to go down to 80$, at the very least.

September got us more bad news and more hints that the regime was going nowhere. Even though the economic writing on the wall was now for all to see, the regime backed down from any measures, not even a slight increase in gas prices which would have helped if anything to meet bureaucratic payrolls. Instead, diversion tactics were employed going as low as creating a Chavez religion.

More decomposition was seen in October where a high ranking chavista was murdered by his body guards. Or even worse, Chavez daughter became our ambassador to the UN just because she is Chavez daughter, and she likes her shopping. And that was the month when the oil barrel reached 75 and this blogger announced that Venezuela was officially broke. (2)

November was all and nothing. All the themes from previous months were retaken according to circumstances: the mock trial of Lopez and his dreadful incarceration; an international appeal for his freedom by some of the major political figures of Latin America; more economic problems; more inaction and idiocies.

But all of this has become irrelevant this December when the Castros made a backhanded deal with Obama that sent packing a long set of negotiations with the European Union who demanded in exchange for economic help a clear improvement on human rights in the island. More damming for Venezuela was that clearly Maduro had not been consulted on that matter, left alone on his own to shout idiotic ant US slogans that he probably will soon be the only one in the planet shouting them.

It has been a totally wasted year for Venezuela. The regime has embarked on the road of repression and more sectarianism, if possible. And yet there is nothing in exchange, not the faintest hint at some economic change, economic improvement. In fact, two years of inaction have made the situation much, much worse to the point that now were are faced with the need of a complete a painful overhaul dictated from outside, from those who may be willing to give us some money so we do not starve. In 2015 the regime will have only one option: become a hash tyranny or collapse if it fails to do so. I am afraid that reviewing this year I can see a dramatic autism inside the regime (and among many of the opposition). I think dialogue and negotiation and shared responsibilities are not possible anymore unless imposed from outside. And with the rather likely complete abandonment of the regime by Cuba now that there is nothing left to leech from at 55$ a barrel, I even doubt that the regime may be that good at repression. Bloody and messy and maybe with some results, I can see that, but ineffective for the long term where you need a careful and ideological core base to be a successful oppressor. With the end of cash, chavismo does not have what it takes, no matter how many "colectivos" are willing to work for free or power.

I am afraid that once more I must come back to a post written in 2007 on why I thought the revolution had died that year. Not that it makes me feel better to be proven right, but I was right.

Whatever ideology and hope existed in Chavez earlier years these ended when he closed RCTV and started the first massive student protest. No revolution can succeed if the intellectuals do not accompany it. That year he tried a referendum to consolidate an authoritarian model and he failed because the students were the singing voice and because the economy had its first burst of scarcity. The signs were there, clear. Chavez could have reviewed "his" revolution but instead he decided unknowingly to nail the coffin himself by imposing the failed referendum anyway, by killing democracy, by killing freedom of thought. Since 2007 it has been a slow but steady march toward state destruction in order to transform Venezuela into a safe cave where narcovermin and thugs can hide. 2014 has been the last year of that process, reaching the final paralysis before the final paroxysm.

2015 will be the new Venezuela, a concentration camp or the beginning of a recovery.


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1) constitutionally high courts justices, electoral board and some other spots must be replaced at the end of their term by people duly picked through a citizens process and voted in by a 2/3 majority of the National Assembly. But the current Nazional Assembly cannot take the faintest risk and is hell bent on violating any constitutional provision to get ALL posts, leaving, perhaps, a single one at the CNE to make believe that the electoral board is "impartial".  The big question here is that the political opposition is not being very vocal about it, letting even appear that some may not mind voting for the regime if the opposition "token" representative comes from among X or Y party.

2) this entry is all based on the posts of this year. Plenty of details fro you if you go to the archive section at the bottom at click at the corresponding month.

Cubazuela officials in turmoil as Cuba regains its own name (UPDATED with rats)

There is great confusion in Caracas.

On one hand the regime had been preparing for a major anti US offensive, rooted in a sanction bill that Obama finally signed. On the other hand, a day earlier Obama was for all purposes giving a free pass to over 5 decades of Castro's tyranny and their crimes. The local potentates, not trained at all in the world finesses are all in a major state of confusion. And contradictions galore.


We can start with the foreign minister, Rafael Ramirez, past and ever oil tsar,  who says he will go to all international courts to protest the abuses made by the US against Venezuela. Before going into his bad faith and deliberate ignorance, let's observe that Venezuela has diligently tried to counter opposition claims in all courts of justices (1). Thus, going now from the opposite side walk will only bring ridicule over infamy to Venezuela and Ramirez. But then again, by now, Ramirez is beyond the possibility of further tarnishing his name.

The thing about Ramirez (and others like Padrino Lopez, see later) is that they betray their profound ignorance on how the US functions.  For those from the regime that I trust monitor my blog listing up "evidence" to send me to jail someday, let me explain how things work up North.

The US president can influence Congress but cannot control it, contrary to Venezuela where a Congress like assembly is a mere rubber stamp of the caudillo in place. The resolution voted by Congress aims only at folks in the public administration of the regime who have committed abuses against Human Rights. It is not about Venezuela. The problem here is that the gang of criminals in charge of the country is taking the country as hostages, just as they do in bank robbery movies with the patrons happening to be there at assault time. Hence Ramirez et al. reactions in recent days, mere bank robbers that just heard a police siren.

Once Congress votes a law, it is very difficult for a president to oppose it unless he counts on at least a third of Congress to avoid a veto overrule. What Ramirez fails to understand is that not only there is ample bipartisan support for sanctions on Venezuelan officials, but Obama has better fights to pick up with Congress than over Venezuela, the more so after the Cuban Overture that has nothing to do with Gershwin pleasant own. And never mind a stinging rebuke of Obama's overture by the Washington Post!

This being said let's go to the words of defense minister Padrino Lopez who sees in the sanctions a mere international conspiracy. The same usual suspects I suppose. Apparently Padrino thinks that "they" want to give Venezuela a bad name. Where has he been these past years?  That ship as sailed Padrino! I even saw in a TV French drama a few month ago one character telling the other that X judicial function worked in France, that it was not Venezuela! "on est pas au Vénézuela ici". In other words, Padrino apparently is unaware of what is said about Venezuela. And this, being defense minister. But then again he has a job to do and because of that he needs to pretend to be an idiot. All is possible.

But that would still be acceptable in the way dirty politics are acceptable. However Padrino goes on and thinks out loud about how stupid Venezuelans are.  He invites observers to visit Venezuela to observe in situ how respectful we are of such rights.  Never mind that never has chavismo allowed for such visits, what infuriates most about his words is that our basic human right for a minimum of personal security when we go around carrying our errands is not respected. Venezuela has one of the highest crime rates in the world and it is because of people like Padrino that we are in such situation even if it is his job, allegedly, to help in our protection.

Then again you must understand that people like Padrino owe it all to the bolivarian farce and as such they have long ago left the world of reality for a mission that they probably do not quite understand themselves.  Not forgetting that the new relationship between Cuba and the US is perturbing tot he core that confused mission.

It promises a lot of "famous last words" episodes in the coming months.....

UPDATE. Rats leaving the ship and an absolutely clueless "captain".

In the series "one picture is worth a thousand words".
Raul: go ahead, your doing well!

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1) Venezuela has gone as far as quitting respectable human rights courts to try to silence claims against the regime.

Venezuela is done for; it is not me saying it, it is Raul Castro

The news today is of course Obama deciding to renew ties with Cuba after about 50 years of embargo and what not. I will not even bother to put up a link, just open your Google News section.

I am not going to argue the pros and cons. One thing is clear and it is that the embargo has not worked, has furnished the odious Castro criminals with an excuse that they have milked beyond the udder. Yet the failure of the embargo was not the idea per se, but the way successive weaklings applied it, speaking tough when the Miami Cuban vote was needed, forgetting about it as soon as they were sworn into some elected office. Clearly something had to be done and I am too busy, too overwhelmed by my own life and home problems to give you the opinion of my crystal ball about the well founded of that initiative of Obama, or any other possible one.


However I am going to concede one thing: whether Obama is misguided about this outing, it is certain that he is the only one that could take such a gamble. His presidency is over, he lost baldy recent elections. The guy has nothing to lose and it is quite possible that his decision is more than just a bow to the left of his party that he does not need anymore, anyway. Sometimes state decisions must be done and someone has to wear the hat and assume responsibility for all past mistakes and/or successes that led nowhere (both, it is an abstract thought, bear with me).  I would not be surprised that we learn someday that some high flying Republicans may have secretly encouraged the embers of this White House to take a step that serves, well, so many people right and left.  After all, let's not forget that Nixon went to China and even got an opera named for his trip.  What rules over the world, in the end, is not what people think it is.

But this is a Venezuelan blog and as such I am going to write next about what this all means for us.

For one thing, all the recent anti US actions from Venezuela and chavismo against the US of A are now under a different look. The utter misguided foreign policies of Maduro and his combo reveal one thing: they had no clue about what Raul Castro was doing. They were in the dark. They were never allies of the Castros as Chavez tried to make us believe for too many years: we were just a Castro colony, a pawn with an accidental wallet to pluck. Now the proof is in front of the dumb chavismo. Now what for them? Are they going to keep screaming about possible sanctions from the US towards the most corrupt of chavismo? (it took the official media of the regime hours to announce the news officially).

Another thing is that the way Raul Castro has dumped Venezuela for the US tourism dollar. Now that Venezuela is bankrupt, the only quick fix available for Cuba is to open its tourism to US visitors, and to Miami Cubans eager to come back and buy back, say, their ancestral home. Raul Castro, for all practical purposes, told us today that Venezuela is done, that he cannot leech much more from it, and that he dumps us without ceremony. We are broke and not even the most idiot of chavistadom can pretend to ignore that for much longer.

But what worries me the most about the whole Raul-Obama deal is that a wind of impunity is blowing through the Caribbean. Thousands of Cuban criminals that supported the Castro horrendous dictatorship are now going to go Scott free. Sure, a couple of them will be somehow sent to trial, scapegoats for decades of tyranny and errors. But it looks like the Castros are now going to die peacefully in their bed while the cult to Che will grow even stronger as throngs of lobotomized US tourists will be driven to the high places of Che crimes.

Is this last part going to affect us. Maybe. Maybe not.  Who is to say that in exchange for forgiveness for his own henchmen Raul is not willing to deliver the Venezuelan narco traffickers to US authorities?  Is Venezuela part of the deal, as a token present to Europe and the US? As this blog sort of agreed commenting a few months ago the predictions of Rafael Poleo.

More interestingly, if Raul is really going to dump Venezuela, could that mean that this is the end of chavismo economic policies, when there is not much worth left to save?  If Maduro was all along the mere representative of Cuba in Caracas, a pro consul if you wish, what is his future now?

And more questions. Many more. But you get the point: today's Obama/Raul show is just the beginning a new bewildering chapter in Latin America history of dictatorship survival. This is barely a start line. The end line maybe further than 40K. It may actually be just the start of a poliathlon....

Let's just hope that this way will indeed be less costly than a civil war in Venezuela.

Mas idioteces de Arreaza, una vergüenza de vice presidente

Ya tuve que narrar unas cuantas imbecilidades del vice presidente que nos gastamos en Venezuela estos días. Pero el tipo insiste. Ahora va a amarrar la pata a los mesones de trabajo de los investigadores para evitar la fuga de cerebros.

En la cumbre Iberoamericana de Veracruz hace unos días Arreaza se quejo de la fuga de cerebros de América Latina, llegando a decir palabras destinadas al inmortal diccionario de los perfectos idiotas (expresión ya vieja en cuanto se refiere a cierta izquierda latinoamericana).

"Queremos poner una alerta sobre la movilidad, porque la hemos sufrido. En Venezuela no solo sufrimos la fuga de cerebros (...), también sufrimos el robo de cerebros" [educados] "con divisas del pueblo venezolano, y luego se quedaron en el exterior".
"cualquier estrategia de movilidad de estudiantes, de investigadores, de profesores" [esté] "muy bien regulada para que efectivamente vayan esos profesionales donde de verdad haya la necesidad y no se queden amparados en ese tipo de desarrollo de otros países en otras partes del mundo".

Y completó con cultura general de la barbaridad:

"No se trata de cuánto invertimos del PIB en educación, el problema no es cuantitativo sino cualitativo. ¿Es esa educación en que invertimos la que necesitan nuestros pueblos para liberarse?[despotricando una supuesta educación para las élites]"¿Son esos los valores que estamos inculcando, los principios, los métodos que nuestros pueblos necesitan para liberarse?" "Creemos que la ciencia, la técnica y arte de nuestros pueblos deben estar guiados a la creación de bienes necesarios para proporcionar el bienestar de nuestros pueblos, fuera de la enajenante lógica del consumismo (y) el capitalismo" y [toda cultura] "a ser preservada, protegida y difundida" [frente] "transculturización".

Vayamos por partes.

Como lo escriben observadores internacionales asombrados a la emigración de Venezuela, como explica el cínico de Arreaza que desde que su suegro llego al poder tal vez millón y medio de venezolanos se fueron del país. Y se calcula que un 80% son profesionales.

Nos imaginamos también las "regulaciones" que van a inventar para evitar la fuga de cerebros. Tal vez solo podrán ir a estudiar con gigantes científicos como Cuba o Korea del Norte. Seguro que querrán regresar después de una temporada por esos lares.

Siendo el mismo vice una élite producto de un braguetazo no entiende que en los países avanzados las élites son siempre educadas, de un alto nivel, con su creatividad e independencia intelectual garantizadas. La gracia allí es dejarlas trabajar mientras los gobiernos inteligentes tratan de sacarle provecho a sus trabajos para beneficiar a las masas. No al revés, como Arreaza implica, que se determine primero lo que quieren las masas (¿Quien decide eso?). ¿En que momento histórico donde se impuso criterio político e teologizado ha sido la ciencia exitosa?  Pobre idiota que seguro ni sabe de Lysenko ni entendería su fracaso estrepitoso.

Pero ademas remata con transculturizacion, o sea que lo de los gringos no se puede imponer pero que si se podría imponer esa cosa chimba que la robolución trata de hacer pasar como cultura genuina y autóctona. Que nos diga el Arreaza que ha creado de transcendental en ciencia o en cultura la revolución chavista. Esperamos con bated breath.

Yo no se de enajenación del consumismo y del capitalismo, pero aquí el que de seguro esta enajenado mentalmente de la realidad es Arreaza.

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P.D. Me imagino que para Arreaza eso cuenta como logro intelectual...

Conoce las actividades organizadas por la Fundación Comandante Eterno, en el Cuartel 4F. Entérate y difunde! pic.twitter.com/nDtJvBZMXf
— ViceVenezuela (@ViceVenezuela) December 10, 2014

O tal vez el ballet maoista sobre la vida de Chávez...

The Phantom of Miraflores

There is no doubt about it, not only Maduro is in denial but he has a plan. That the plan is written by Cubans willing to gamble on outright repression is inconsequential. That the plan has any chance of success is beyond the point. That chavismo itself will not support it is the least of his worries.

Floating, falling, sweet intoxication

Right now all indicators are in free fall.

The black market has reached 178 yesterday and there is no sign whatsoever that the slide will stop. Certainly not as long as the regime clings to a fictitious 6.3 that only people well connected may access (I suppose like those in the van caught yesterday in Puerto Cabello with around 10 million USD in cold cash).

From the oil front news are getting worse. The Brent has reached a 5 years low and some predict an oil barrel at 43USD!!!!!

And even though the regime hides the best it can its statistics the advanced numbers by serious observers predict now a 3 digit inflation for next year, and Barclay's says that GDP will contract 4.4% this year and 6.2% next year.

In this darkness that you know you cannot fight

There are more concrete indicators that suggest things are going downhill fast.

Coffin production has decreased because there is no stuff to build them coffins. What? Let's hope that there is enough fuel oil for incineration.

Telecom services will go up next year. "because we do not want G4 network to be only for the elites". Stuff like that cannot be made up... I would, personally, settle for a G3 working, for at least one in two mobile calls going through.

Our main food producer, Polar, keeps being under constant attack. It was accused of not producing all the corn flour needed, by no one else but the chavista head of the Polar Union. Unfortunately he did not bother to check that Polar was processing all the corn it could get and it certainly was not its fault that there was no more corn available. That has not stopped organizations like "Juventud Obrera de la Central Bolivariana de Trabajadores" (Young Unskilled Labor of Bolivarian Workers Central Union?) led by a certain Gerdul Guttierez (Gerdul?) to demand more inspections even though at the same time they acknoweldge that they have nothing on Polar...


Turn your face away from the garish light of day
Turn your thoughts away from cold unfeeling light

So what is Maduro doing from Miraflores Palace? Nothing. Well, nothing besides insulting people right and left and looking for scapegoats. Any scapegoat will suffice at this point.

Let's start with the usual conspiracy theory. Now the new variation is that Fitch et al. are conspiring to downgrade Venezuela ratings so no one will lend to Venezuela outside of exorbitant interest rates. As Damian Pratt writes well, reality check are not words in Maduro's dictionary. Never mind that actually some oil companies DO lend to oil projects. Or is Maduro the only person in the regime unaware of the currently existing debt burden? That no rainy day fund was ever set aside?

Insults also come and go.  Chritine Lagarde, chair of IMF was accused of having a spaghetti brain. Of course Lagarde is laughing it all as Maduro has finally recognized that Venezuela needs "financing". She knows the last word is hers.

Purge your thoughts of the life you knew before
Open up your mind, let your fantasies unwind

And the offensive does also betray great nervousness in the higher up echelons of the regime. The US Senate, now that Mary Landrieu has been booted out, mercifully, has finally voted a bipartisan legislation to emit sanctions against Venezuelan authorities that are involved in the repression earlier this year. NOTE: these are no sanctions against Venezuela, just against possible assets of a couple hundred chavista that happily jailed folks this year, tortured them, etc... We are just waiting for the House to pass its version and it seems that Obama will sign it. Of course he will sign it, if anything because the Venezuelan dog has only bark left to it. If that.

Maduro was prompt to react. Apparently the US is desperate... And if they dare, there will be an unanimous response from Latin America to defend Venezuela... Then again, the upper echelons of the corrupt regime will be hit where it matters more: their wallet and ability to go shopping in the US.

Close your eyes and surrender to your darkest dreams

The regime is putting, deliberately?, itself in a corner. I wonder if it is not the script from Cuba, dressed through the narco criminals that dot the Venezuelan army. "We are going to jail if we lose power. Henceforth let's declare bankruptcy, stop paying shit, and shoot down anyone that dares to oppose us". Do they have a choice? After all, Cuba has postponed its negotiations with the European Union where it was assumed that economic help for the transition would in exchange of better Human Rights records, even if the notion of single party would not be challenged.

Draw your conclusions.

A small commentary on the exaggeration of the Bolivar collapse

For readers of this blog and other keen observers of Venezuelan reality, it has not passed without notice that the black market rate of the Venezuelan Bolivar (VEB) has taken a major dive in front of the America Dollar (USD).

The last time the VEB was below 100 to an USD was October 21, at 98,09. Thus we can calculate that the depreciation of the Venezuelan currency has been of (174.03-98.09)/174.03=43.6% in 51 days. That is, the currency has lost 43.6/51=0.7% per day. A staggering number by any mean.

I am not going to discuss here the consequences of that (for example, most car repair shops are already closing for the annual holiday because no one is selling them spare parts until there is some currency stability, just as my car has troubles).  What I am going to try is to enlighten the reader in that inasmuch as it is true that the VEB has nose dived in two months, it is also true that the real fall may not be as bad as what Dolartoday claims. Which is not necessarily going to reassure you as you will find out (dolartoday itself suggests that, by pointing out "cash" transactions at a distant 157,41 on December 7).

Let's start by a concrete observation. Let's say that you have 100,000 VEB to trade for USD and you go to the Colombian border, at Cucuta, the only place where you can do this in the open. On December 7 you would have gotten 100,000/174.03=575 USD.

What can you do with 575 USD? Not that much. You cannot even travel to Miami from Caracas. If you live in the US, it does not pay you for a month of rent, not even a month of car lease if you need a solid family car.  Heck, you may not even get three weekly grocery stores trips for your family if you eat more than macaroni and cheese.

What can you do with 100,000 VEB? More. You cannot afford a car whatsoever (nobody really except those in non kosher businesses, but that is another issue). However you can feed your family for a full month and more (assuming that you find what you are looking for, another story too). You can have your home repainted. Even in Caracas you may be able to pay 2 or 3 months rent.

My point here is that I, for one, not only cannot afford the 174 rate but even if I could I probably would not, preferring to go out and buy whatever I can, to resell it later as the crisis moves along. That is, I would but at that rate if there were a true immediate life threatening problem (as for a crucial medicine for my S.O.)

I know that you cannot truly compare Venezuelan acquisitive capacity with any other country holding more rational economic principles. There are so many distortions here that it makes such a comparison an end game. Still, 100,000 VEB is more, in concrete terms, than 567 USD. I personally think that if we distance ourselves somehow from the craziness of the regime, assuming that it is directed at their lumpen while they decide what to do, 100 VEB to 1 USD is closer to the truth. What gives? The Cucuta clientele.

See, folks tend to forget one thing: people exchanging dollars like crazy at the Colombian border are not your average Venezuelan (note: as far as I know at Cucuta you can get the exchange rate du jour at different places but you cannot get truly how much is being exchanged; correct me if I am wrong). The people that exchange in Cucuta are in large part people laundering their money; contraband, assorted smuggling, guerrilla extortion, drug dealing, local public employees skimming, and what not. These people are much more willing to exchange at any rate if the political winds are unfavorable, if there is not much to buy inside the Venezuelan border, if oil prices drop too much for their taste.

But political people, from whoever holds dolartoday to the regime main thugs and opposition politicians, passing through manipulative local bankers and traders, find it most convenient for their agenda to support that Cucuta exchange. Then again the regime helps along by keeping up an unreasonable control exchange and not publishing truthful data that would conform the explicit value of the VEB in regards to the USD (reserves / circulating money) that dolartoday itself places at 86.67 on December 7 ("implicito").

Meanwhile, as all of this circus keeps going on, the little money saver, the small business guy, does not know what to do, does not know what to buy, does not know what price to sell, thus feeding the inflationary spiral.  In the end, from crooked politician to small guy, we will all get screwed (though of course the thugs will fare better).

My advice? Do not buy dollars right now, wait for an official devaluation that cannot be long in coming. Go out and buy whatever it is you can find to buy, from canned goods to linen. And sit tight on them. You are going to need them next year.

PS: Of course, all of this may become wishful thinking in a month from now when the black market reaches 200 or 300... I am assuming that the regime will try to cut its expenses somewhat because if not we are on the way to Germany circa early 20ies of last century... And no regime survives that.

When dictatorships have nothing left to lose: Machado on the spike

What is more surprising today is in fact that the regime did not jail Maria Corina Machado, when it could have done it exactly as it did with Leopoldo Lopez.  Why?

Maria Corina saliendo del MP. Se le Imputa "conspiración" la pena es de 8 a 16 años de prisión #YoEstoyConMariaCorina pic.twitter.com/5lkkDj1swv
—  MAC_Photography  (@MAC_Photo) December 3, 2014

That tweet shows her leaving the prosecutor office after having been charged with conspiracy, which means that if she were to be found guilty after a trial she would get at the very least 8 years in jail. So, why is she, apparently, going to be tried "in liberty" while the same trial for Leopoldo Lopez is going nowhere, leaving him to languish in jail since February 18 in rather abject conditions? After all, there is no doubt about her being guilty by association with Lopez, as you can see by yourself next as she accompanied closely Leopoldo Lopez the day he was taken by the regime.

True courage, holding strong under fear.

Let's look first, to better understand the situation, at the folly in jailing Maria Corina Machado, a true act of fascist desperation. Maria Corina Machado has even sat down at the OAS to explain the Venezuelan situation. Never mind that she is a duly elected representative, with the highest number of votes by far from any of the 2010 crop. Never mind that she has been received in many parliaments of South America. Never mind the wide array of activities here and abroad that she has participated in. Never mind that she ALWAYS spoke her mind which makes one wonder why now? After all, she was equally "guilty" as Lopez and thus there is absolutely no reason for the regime to wait for 10 months more.

I suppose that the true reason is that the regime has nothing left to lose. Its international reputation is now down the trash hatch. The recent failure of Ramirez trip at the OPEC summit is plain proof of it. Venezuela is confronted to the prospect of an oil barrel below 70 when it needs above 100 USD to keep its expenses and international subsidies to pimps like Cuba. Thus the regime has been served notice that its credibility with serious countries is zero, that these countries are simply waiting for the whole thing to collapse and/or become a brutal dictatorship. At this point, noting that opposition has not stopped in Venezuela, noting that polls seem to agree that close to 70% of the Venezuelans want the exit of Maduro (thus 70% of conspirators in Venezuela?), it has also become clear for the regime that repression is its only hope. Having nothing left to lose, the regime has decided to deal with the opposition biggest, arguably, international star. Jailing and torturing Lopez and two other mayors and a few dozens of students have not helped. So it is time to jail Machado, as a warning to lesser figures of the opposition that they are next in line if they do not shut up.

But then again, her jailing has been postponed.

One could argue that since she is a woman in a machista revolution (yes, machista, as all women with "power" are only there to do the maids dirty jobs) it would not look good to jail a woman. But then again there is the case of judge Afiuni awful treatment that has raised world wide rejection. For Maduro et al, Machado's sex is not a problem (remember that Diosdado Cabello sent his goons to beat her up publicly at the Nazional Assembly).

One could argue there is a certain fear of international opinion, that perhaps having Machado in jail may not help when the regime gets to ask for help, hat in hand. I do not think so. The regime is by now too far gone, to Cuba like to care about rejection. This is all about blackmail, blackmailing for help in exchange for not interfering with other countries' business like it is the case right now with the FARC/Santos negotiations over Colombia's future, held in Havana of all "trustworthy" joints!

One could even argue that the objectives of the regime are a slower, longer and meaner torture than the one inflicted upon Leopoldo Lopez. After all, the impression is that the opposition MUD is still crying over that abuse but is not doing much anymore about it. Lopez is "passé" and the regime would need a newer scapegoat. Although I agree more with this one than the two above, there is still something missing.

Thus I am left, bereft of further theories, to assume that Machado is actually a pawn inside chavista inner struggles, just as I posited that Lopez is one of the trump cards of Diosdado Cabello. Unfortunately if the Lopez case was relatively easy for me to speculate on, in the case of Maria Corina Machado it is more difficult to speculate who is benefited by it inside chavismo. Not that they are not going to jail her eventually, this is a certainty, but the time is still not quite decided.

See, there is something different between Machado and Capriles or Lopez or any other one. For example, even if Voluntad Popular is a more law and order party, Lopez's vehicle is trying to join the "international socialist" group. That is the tradition of political Venezuela since 1958: nobody wants to be center, all want to be from left of center to extreme left (which goes a long way in explaining the failure of democracy in Venezuela but that is another story). Maria Corina Machado is the first credible politician that embraces openly private property, the laws of market, law an order, and a human approach to things without caving in to populist excuses for mediocrity. She was the lucky one able to challenge Chavez on prime time.

One would think that the obvious and novel right of center approach of Maria Corina Machado would reassure all current actors who assume that she is neutralizing herself by not following populist principles. But she is not, even with the failure to grow her own party she is still a force to reckon with. In spite of her upper class upbringing she still can reach across the lines to alleged chavista voters. And the MUD has trouble working closely with her (is she their bad conscience?). Thus I offer the idea that she is a pawn, just like Lopez, but to a more "right wing" sector inside chavismo. After all, there are many inside chavismo that understand that the leftist populist orgy is over, that they need to put to work, to launder somehow, all the money they stole. And thus Maria Corina Machado could be part of a plan to bring the country back to a more kosher way of dealing with the economy.

It is too early to even think about what that plan maybe. We may at best speculate on what sector of chavismo is open to the idea of Machado's ideas and potential. A sector of the army and the bolibourgeois nouveau riche could be interested in a more pro business agenda. Whatever it is, we can bet that the fate of Machado is not quite settled inside chavismo and that actually the perversion may be pushed to the point of a chavista sector wanting to grab on to her to counter Cabello's hold on Lopez.