Today, after soon three month in jail and no trial in sight, Leopoldo Lopez, political prisoner of the regime has his birthday. With the added bonus that his wife has been banned for visit for a while because the regime did not like an interview she gave to ABC in Spain.
So, has Leopoldo Lopez self sacrifice been worth something?
The point here is that when you are dealing with a dictatorship there is no measure of success. That is, the regime remains or the regime folds, but the timing maybe unaccountable to current events and apparent "plus scores". What you must do as an individual, is to do what you think needs to be done and hope for the best, keeping in mind that the grandest gesture has equal chances to topple the regime as the humblest of coincidences.
What Leopoldo unleashed February 12 and etched a few days later when he surrendered to the regime was a double whammy: an international acknowledgment that the Maduro regime is a crass dictatorship and that the Venezuelan opposition was duplicitous. That is why, that is the real reason why Leopoldo Lopez is in jail awaiting a trial that is not coming: too many people from both sides want him in. I do not mean to make some in the opposition sound that cynical, none really want Lopez to rot in jail there forever, but some are not adverse at him remaining in jail for a few months while they secure some form of deal with the regime, a deal where if possible they would figure as the benefactors that managed the release of Lopez.
Of course the regime want Lopez, and many other, to rot forever in jail, or dead if they could get away with it. The main reason for that hatred with Lopez is that represents all that they are not, educated individuals, rational, sensible, not seeking revenge for real or imaginary hurts, even good looking. That in addition he made it clear to the world that the regime is a dictatorship managed by thugs is, of course, unforgivable.
What is more troubling is that some in the opposition are not running over each other to make a grand stand and demand Lopez freedom or else. This, in a way, is harder to forgive. But the reason is also simple to understand: the revolt that Lopez represents is the one from a group of Venezuelans who think that they have no future, nothing to lose anymore. But inside the MUD there are people that have something to lose, little perhaps, but something nevertheless. As such people like Ramos Allup, leader of the fading AD old party, are ready to do anything to lower social tensions. Not because it is good to lower social tensions, something we can almost all of of us agree on, but because social tensions are bad for him since he will never lead them.
Thus for example they claim that they need to lead a "dialogue" that is missing key elements such as the people that actually expose their lives in protests, a dialogue that is going nowhere fast, where the only valid strategy, at least acknowledged by Aveledo this weekend, is to make the government stand up and leave once and for all. Thus we have irenic speeches where we are told, for example, that establishing a new truth commission bring us close to peace. That the regime bombs on day one such a commission by naming creeps like Amoroso or crazies like Serra should bring some sense to these heads but does not. Ramos Allup goes on saying that street protests brought nothing and thus we are forced to dialogue, when dialogue, for whatever it is worth, was made possible by forcing the regime into it, albeit as the fake they are.
I have no present to give Leopoldo Lopez in jail except a few verses in French from Paul Éluard if you forgive me the metaphor associating living in jail with death, a few verses for those who refuse their preordained fate and embrace the consequences.
Un homme est mort qui n’avait pour défense
Que ses bras ouverts à la vie
Un homme est mort qui n’avait d’autre route
Que celle où l’on hait les fusils
Un homme est mort qui continue la lutte
Contre la mort contre l’oubli.
Paul Éluard: au rendez vous allemand
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Friday, April 25, 2014
Hace 15 años votaba NO y NO
La efeméride de hoy nos lleva a 1999, hace 15 años, cuando Venezuela selló su destino con su más desatinado referendo "por ahora". Hasta Wikipedia tiene una pagina, escrita probablemente por algún chavista pagado para eso desde alguna sala situacional.
Vamos a asumir que la información de Wikipedia es mas o menos correcta, no tengo paciencia para indagar en fuentes mas confiables como los archivos periodísticos. Wikipedia, el opio del flojo. Total, bien me acuerdo de ese día para no depender ni siquiera de Wikipedia si no es por los numerosos que me imagino son sacados del CNE y que concuerdan con mis recuerdos porcentuales.
El referendo que llamo Chávez era ilegal. La constitución de 1961 en sus artículos 246 y 249 era clarísima en eso de modificar la constitución y eso no se cumplió, con la complicidad de la Corte Suprema, cuya presidenta entonces, Cecilia Sosa, se las hecha de anti chavista férrea. Algo mas de hierro hubiese sido bueno en 1999.
En su primera violación a una constitución, el chavismo arrancó con ese proceso constituyente. Y ha seguido violando las constituciónes una y otra vez hasta que hoy en día la del 99 es papel sanitario.
Hubo discusiones, pero hubo sobretodo una idiotez airada de gente que dijo que no se debía votar sobre algo ilegal, abriendo una ilustre tradición de abstencionismo que le ha sido útil una y mil veces al chavismo. Me recuerdo con que incredulidad pasé mi sábado 24 de abril y domingo 25 tratando de convencer a gente que tenia que ir a votar, que tenia que decir NO porque yo ya sabia en esa época que cualquier victoria pírrica seria interpretada como un avasallante triunfo por ellos. Solo logré sumar un hermano y una cuñada, ademas de mis padres y una tía que siempre votan, pase lo que pase.
Yo estuve en ese selecto grupo de 300.233 personas que votaron NO a la primera pregunta, un pobre 7.26% que se atrevió a decir NO a una nueva constitución. Para darles una perspectiva, Antonio Ledezma sacó solo en Caracas el pasado Diciembre 2013, con fraude y toda vaina, 710.101 votos. O sea, que la gigantesca abstención de aquel 25 de abril de 1999, 62.35% que no fueron a votar, permitió el arranque de este sistema político que hoy nos agobia con protestas, escasez, inflación, abuso, represión, falta de libertad a todo punto de vista, idiotez generalizada, servilismo, falta de escrúpulos, amoralidad y pare de contar....
Yo no se cuales fueron los motivos de los otros 300.232 en votar NO, pero el mio era muy claro: las constituciones son solo tan buenas como las gentes que las manejan y yo ya sabia que Hugo Chávez Frias era un coño e'madre. Lo sabia desde 1992, y lo hubiese sabido desde antes si lo hubiese conocido antes. No se si es algún don psíquico que tengo pero no ha habido un día en que haya dudado de que Chávez era un bandido, un abusador nato. De que cada día se confirmasen mis temores y mis certezas no ha sido consuelo alguno. Tan malo y perverso ha sido Chávez que nos dejó una herencia de corruptos que hoy nos agobian aun más que lo hacia Hugo. ¡Una maldición, pues!
Había otra pregunta ese día, sobre el sistema electoral a usar para dicha asamblea constituyente. Era una aberración. Yo, modesto conocedor de sistemas electorales, sabia que ninguna asamblea electa bajo tal sistema iba a ser plural. Efectivamente la asamblea electa con algo mas de 60% de los votos tuvo un 95% de los asambleístas. De allí solo podía salir una constitución viciada de origen, por mas votos que haya sacado después. Un documento que ignora la opinión del 40% mientras que el 60% le entrega todo a un solo individuo no puede ser auspicioso.
Esa segunda pregunta tuvo el merito de sacar 527.632 NO, para un 12,75% de los votos. O sea, por lo menos había gente que apoyaba a Chávez en esa época pero que ya presentían que la democracia y la pluralidad pudiesen estar amenazadas. Algo es algo.
Me van a perdonar las próximas palabras, pero en este país, en 1999, solamente habían 527.632 demócratas de los cuales 527.632-300.233= 227.399 eran comeflores que pensaban que Chávez no era tan malo como lo pintaban. En 1999 habían solamente 300.233 venezolanos que ya se sospechaban, sabían, del desastre que se nos venia encima, de otro par de décadas perdidas.
Les voy a confesar algo: cuando oigo a mucha gente dentro de la oposición hoy en día, cuando los veo actuar, me pregunto si todavía llegamos a unos 300 mil demócratas en todo el país. El chavismo lo doy por descontado porque si queda demócrata alguno en ese grupo, es también un(a) cobarde.
Yo no se cuales fueron los motivos de los otros 300.232 en votar NO, pero el mio era muy claro: las constituciones son solo tan buenas como las gentes que las manejan y yo ya sabia que Hugo Chávez Frias era un coño e'madre. Lo sabia desde 1992, y lo hubiese sabido desde antes si lo hubiese conocido antes. No se si es algún don psíquico que tengo pero no ha habido un día en que haya dudado de que Chávez era un bandido, un abusador nato. De que cada día se confirmasen mis temores y mis certezas no ha sido consuelo alguno. Tan malo y perverso ha sido Chávez que nos dejó una herencia de corruptos que hoy nos agobian aun más que lo hacia Hugo. ¡Una maldición, pues!
Había otra pregunta ese día, sobre el sistema electoral a usar para dicha asamblea constituyente. Era una aberración. Yo, modesto conocedor de sistemas electorales, sabia que ninguna asamblea electa bajo tal sistema iba a ser plural. Efectivamente la asamblea electa con algo mas de 60% de los votos tuvo un 95% de los asambleístas. De allí solo podía salir una constitución viciada de origen, por mas votos que haya sacado después. Un documento que ignora la opinión del 40% mientras que el 60% le entrega todo a un solo individuo no puede ser auspicioso.
Esa segunda pregunta tuvo el merito de sacar 527.632 NO, para un 12,75% de los votos. O sea, por lo menos había gente que apoyaba a Chávez en esa época pero que ya presentían que la democracia y la pluralidad pudiesen estar amenazadas. Algo es algo.
Me van a perdonar las próximas palabras, pero en este país, en 1999, solamente habían 527.632 demócratas de los cuales 527.632-300.233= 227.399 eran comeflores que pensaban que Chávez no era tan malo como lo pintaban. En 1999 habían solamente 300.233 venezolanos que ya se sospechaban, sabían, del desastre que se nos venia encima, de otro par de décadas perdidas.
Les voy a confesar algo: cuando oigo a mucha gente dentro de la oposición hoy en día, cuando los veo actuar, me pregunto si todavía llegamos a unos 300 mil demócratas en todo el país. El chavismo lo doy por descontado porque si queda demócrata alguno en ese grupo, es también un(a) cobarde.
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Peaceful protests bother you? Just ban them. And force punitive delation.
Once again today we have proof that the judicial system is totally at the service of the executive, that separation of powers is a concept of the past in a revolution where even a dead Chavez seems to be the lone ruler. In an unanimous decision (does anyone remembers a time when a chavista high court ruled with at least one dissent voice?) the constitutional hall has decided that article 68 of the constitution does not apply and that now any protest, ANY, must get a permit.
Now, in all fairness, the right to protest should not be unbridled. For example, if you protest and there are negative consequences as to your protest you should be accountable for them. Or you should not be able to protest when your motivation is based on prejudice. And even spontaneous protest, as the one that could happen because, say, a bank refuses to pays it account holders, should be held in such a way minimum harassment comes out of it. In other words, there should be some legal system that considers these protest activities for their consequences, but not their reasonable motivations. There is the matter of free expression associated with the right to protest, you know...
What the TSJ constitutional hall did today was to legislate where there is a vacuum. And it did so to deliberately favor the side that seems unable to find a democratic solution to stop the justified wave of protests in many areas all across the country.
In other words the TSJ has decided with a single stroke to limit two fundamental rights, the right to peaceful protest and by extension the rights on freedom of expression. Did I mention that as it has been the case for years there was NO DISSENTING opinion?
If this was not bad enough, reading the decision you find a few little jewels. I picked this one, at the end.
I translate (my emphasis):
---If there is disobedience of the decision taken by the highest civil authority of the jurisdiction, either because the expressly forbidden demonstration or public meeting was held, or because there were changes in the conditions of time, manner and place that were authorized previously, that authority shall submit to the Attorney General, at the earliest possible time, all information pertaining to persons who applied to peaceful demonstration, and it shall be used to determine their criminal responsibility for the crime of contempt of authority referred to in Article 483 of the Penal Code, in addition to criminal and legal liability that may be for conduct outside the law, deployed during or in connection with the demonstrations or public meetings.---
Let me give you a sense of perspective. The local authorities now have to act as accusing parties for anything that someone may complain, even if originally they supported the said protest. They are to become a snitch. And any excess committed in such a protest will be blamed on the callers for that protest. Let me give you an example.
Suppose that a neighborhood association decides to protest for the recurrent lack of water in its district. Suppose the chavista mayor says no because he has appointed a relative/political ally at the water authority. The protest is carried ahead anyway. The mayor now can sue the leaders that called for the protest. And if by any chance the protest was a little bit harsher than expected (they threw a tomato on a civil servant), the mayor will have an easier time for it. And if the mayor, sensing political danger, authorized the protest anyway but in conditions difficult to meet, it will be easy for the mayor to create some incident (a blocked street on any sudden excuse, forcing the protest to walk peacefully through another street) to state afterwards that the protest was not conducted as accorded and thus the organizers are subject to investigation and sanction.
You get the picture: repression is made way easier.
Of course the regime is unable to enforce nationwide such a new ruling. The intent is elsewhere. For example, Maria Corina Machado states in Tucupita that she supports the authorized protest in Maracaibo next day. Unfortunately something goes wrong with that protest next day and now MCM can be linked, even from Tucupita, and can be prosecuted because her support sent her supporters to that march and we do not know who was the cause of the said incident but since it could be a supporter of MCM then she should go to jail. And even if we find through a video all the guilty party that acted without MCM approval, since they self identified as her supporters, she is liable anyway. That is the objective of the new ruling, to create a new type of crime, that does not exist in the constitution, but that now can be used against any political target the regime has. The beauty of it all is that there was no need to modify the penal code, there was no need to debate and vote a new law, there was no need to amend the constitution. Just as in the case of the jailed mayors of San Diego and San Cristobal, the regime used the high court to create a new de facto system. Dictatorship anyone? Fascism anyone?
The question is: what will the MUD do at the next dialogue reunion? Holding my breath I 'aint not.
Now, in all fairness, the right to protest should not be unbridled. For example, if you protest and there are negative consequences as to your protest you should be accountable for them. Or you should not be able to protest when your motivation is based on prejudice. And even spontaneous protest, as the one that could happen because, say, a bank refuses to pays it account holders, should be held in such a way minimum harassment comes out of it. In other words, there should be some legal system that considers these protest activities for their consequences, but not their reasonable motivations. There is the matter of free expression associated with the right to protest, you know...
What the TSJ constitutional hall did today was to legislate where there is a vacuum. And it did so to deliberately favor the side that seems unable to find a democratic solution to stop the justified wave of protests in many areas all across the country.
In other words the TSJ has decided with a single stroke to limit two fundamental rights, the right to peaceful protest and by extension the rights on freedom of expression. Did I mention that as it has been the case for years there was NO DISSENTING opinion?
If this was not bad enough, reading the decision you find a few little jewels. I picked this one, at the end.
Ante la desobediencia de la decisión tomada por la primera autoridad civil de la jurisdicción, bien por el hecho de haberse efectuado la manifestación o reunión pública a pesar de haber sido negada expresamente o por haber modificado las condiciones de tiempo, modo y lugar que fueron autorizadas previamente, la referida autoridad deberá remitir al Ministerio Público, a la mayor brevedad posible toda la información atinente a las personas que presentaron la solicitud de manifestación pacífica, ello a los fines de que determine su responsabilidad penal por la comisión del delito de desobediencia a la autoridad previsto en el artículo 483 del Código Penal, además de la responsabilidad penal y jurídica que pudiera tener por las conductas al margen del Derecho, desplegadas durante o con relación a esas manifestaciones o reuniones públicas.
I translate (my emphasis):
---If there is disobedience of the decision taken by the highest civil authority of the jurisdiction, either because the expressly forbidden demonstration or public meeting was held, or because there were changes in the conditions of time, manner and place that were authorized previously, that authority shall submit to the Attorney General, at the earliest possible time, all information pertaining to persons who applied to peaceful demonstration, and it shall be used to determine their criminal responsibility for the crime of contempt of authority referred to in Article 483 of the Penal Code, in addition to criminal and legal liability that may be for conduct outside the law, deployed during or in connection with the demonstrations or public meetings.---
Let me give you a sense of perspective. The local authorities now have to act as accusing parties for anything that someone may complain, even if originally they supported the said protest. They are to become a snitch. And any excess committed in such a protest will be blamed on the callers for that protest. Let me give you an example.
Suppose that a neighborhood association decides to protest for the recurrent lack of water in its district. Suppose the chavista mayor says no because he has appointed a relative/political ally at the water authority. The protest is carried ahead anyway. The mayor now can sue the leaders that called for the protest. And if by any chance the protest was a little bit harsher than expected (they threw a tomato on a civil servant), the mayor will have an easier time for it. And if the mayor, sensing political danger, authorized the protest anyway but in conditions difficult to meet, it will be easy for the mayor to create some incident (a blocked street on any sudden excuse, forcing the protest to walk peacefully through another street) to state afterwards that the protest was not conducted as accorded and thus the organizers are subject to investigation and sanction.
You get the picture: repression is made way easier.
Of course the regime is unable to enforce nationwide such a new ruling. The intent is elsewhere. For example, Maria Corina Machado states in Tucupita that she supports the authorized protest in Maracaibo next day. Unfortunately something goes wrong with that protest next day and now MCM can be linked, even from Tucupita, and can be prosecuted because her support sent her supporters to that march and we do not know who was the cause of the said incident but since it could be a supporter of MCM then she should go to jail. And even if we find through a video all the guilty party that acted without MCM approval, since they self identified as her supporters, she is liable anyway. That is the objective of the new ruling, to create a new type of crime, that does not exist in the constitution, but that now can be used against any political target the regime has. The beauty of it all is that there was no need to modify the penal code, there was no need to debate and vote a new law, there was no need to amend the constitution. Just as in the case of the jailed mayors of San Diego and San Cristobal, the regime used the high court to create a new de facto system. Dictatorship anyone? Fascism anyone?
The question is: what will the MUD do at the next dialogue reunion? Holding my breath I 'aint not.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
How to admit failure in Venezuela: by threatening further and blaming others
I have to start with my own admission: for the past few weeks I have watched no Venezuelan TV, I have read papers at best every three days, and besides a little bit internet, not much else... But in all honesty I have also written less than usual and watched out on what to write. But Maduro gave me a pearl too good to pass on. The more so that it is in my field....
I have written several times already on how the regime has tried to control the distribution of ANY agricultural products through SADA, SICA and what not. In short, for those late in the show, in theory in Venezuela you cannot move a truck load of food, or ingredients needed to prepare food without a government permission that includes all, even the license driver of the trucker. For example, about a third of what I sell falls into that category and before we ship them we need to await for a government permit processed through Internet but that may take quite a few hours to be delivered. Sometimes forcing me to suspend shipment until the next day so I have to pay an extra day, and night, to the chauffeur forced to wait, notwithstanding the client having yet to suffer one more delay.... You get the picture.
Well, today Maduro admitted, unwillingly, that all of this system is not working, that contraband still takes place, that loopholes still do exist and people still traffic with goods and prices. Amen of also admitting unwillingly that prices controls do not work. Before I go into his solution, let me stress that unless you have contacts in the military that mans the roads and surveys the SADA and SICA, THERE IS NO WAY you can ship anything without being caught, without having a Nazional Guard on duty asking you for a large chunk of money, or goods, to let your truck pass. I know this as a fact, and an everyday fact, and those who do not need to go through the loops like I do, we know who they are. They can get away with it because 1. they are government companies or 2- they are in bed with corrupt bolishit companies (though that does not preserve them of the occasional "zealed" Nazional Guard on duty who only sees what he can bribe you out for, you know, like "my general is bigger than your general").
In other words, a decade of price controls and road supervisions and inspections, and fines and what not have not only not solved Venezuelan production problems, but scarcity must be at an all time high for Maduro to go on record even though the Central Bank has simply decided to stop publishing annoying numbers like inflation, scarcity index, etc...
So what does the genius of Maduro proposes?
- "some people did not understand the message of November and December" 2013: that is, sell at the price I tell you to say or you will be looted. That is good for investment to boost production. Remember my warnings on the Daka affair?
- "whoever plays with the law will be in big trouble". Which law? What the private enterprise has asked is that either the law for "just" process is allowed, without price controls that are quickly outdated with high inflation, or that price controls remain but please, spare us the wasted time on fixing "just" prices that the regime does not respect anyway. I know as a fact that in many of recent reunions held between the regime and private enterprise they have reiterated that there is a contradiction in having both a law on "just" prices and a scheme on fixed prices that never get reviewed. Each time public officials seemed offended because, well, both laws are meant to milk private business, not to defend customer who in the end is suffering increasing scarcity of goods. It is always annoying when people rub your nose in your own shit and they are right....
- "Wednesday we are going to announce how to reach an equilibrium point in the distribution through Mercal of 50 products" 50? Why not 27 or 63? And what does equilibrium means? That only Mercal will have some stuff and no one else? And how can you reach "equilibrium" in distribution when you cannot have regular production, due to the lack of dollars for raw material import, damming bureaucracy and what not??
- on April 25 a new wave of inspections will be made in the country's stores because they cannot "live like capitalistic parasites". Good for them! Bureaucrats will have an easy time for these inspections, even in Caracas shelves are emptying fast! I am a capitalist and boy, do I wish I could find a prey to hook upon like a parasite! Impossible today in Venezuela unless, of course, you are hooked upon government contracts though the support of people like, say, Diosdado Cabello.
- Jorge Roig, president of private sector organization, was termed of ill advice to distribution and commerce, that listening to his advice will land you in jail. So, why not put Roig in jail once and for all and close once and for all private sector? I have not read, nor have time to seek which particular declaration of Roig has so inflamed Maduro ire. But I am willing to bet that it was a very sensible declaration and that its main fault was to illustrate once again why the chavista system can only lead to repeated failures. I will welcome any reader correcting me, proving that Roig is an agent of Obama and what not....
- "Just " prices will be now the benchmark to regulate prices AND fix them, "as it should be" says he. So the contradiction is solved: prices will be reevaluated, made them "just" and made them permanent though price fixing. No more inflation, no more scarcity, no more speculation. A Nobel for Maduro!!!!!! Il suffisait d'y penser!
- and as a conclusion for his radio address, not only he does not realize that his whole speech is an admission that the last decade has been a HUGE failure, but he forges ahead, says that his system is better than the capitalist system of 15 years ago defended by the opposition today. De Nile runs deep.....
Trust me, the worst is yet to come, unless miraculously the regime produces a wad of cash and import everything it needs for Mercal and that miraculously trucks and roads are operative........... On the other hand it may well be that Maduro is preparing the people for worse days ahead by bullshitting his way through, hanging high and dry Roig only to apply all of his recipes AFTER. All is possible these days, but I'aint holding my breath.
I have written several times already on how the regime has tried to control the distribution of ANY agricultural products through SADA, SICA and what not. In short, for those late in the show, in theory in Venezuela you cannot move a truck load of food, or ingredients needed to prepare food without a government permission that includes all, even the license driver of the trucker. For example, about a third of what I sell falls into that category and before we ship them we need to await for a government permit processed through Internet but that may take quite a few hours to be delivered. Sometimes forcing me to suspend shipment until the next day so I have to pay an extra day, and night, to the chauffeur forced to wait, notwithstanding the client having yet to suffer one more delay.... You get the picture.
Well, today Maduro admitted, unwillingly, that all of this system is not working, that contraband still takes place, that loopholes still do exist and people still traffic with goods and prices. Amen of also admitting unwillingly that prices controls do not work. Before I go into his solution, let me stress that unless you have contacts in the military that mans the roads and surveys the SADA and SICA, THERE IS NO WAY you can ship anything without being caught, without having a Nazional Guard on duty asking you for a large chunk of money, or goods, to let your truck pass. I know this as a fact, and an everyday fact, and those who do not need to go through the loops like I do, we know who they are. They can get away with it because 1. they are government companies or 2- they are in bed with corrupt bolishit companies (though that does not preserve them of the occasional "zealed" Nazional Guard on duty who only sees what he can bribe you out for, you know, like "my general is bigger than your general").
In other words, a decade of price controls and road supervisions and inspections, and fines and what not have not only not solved Venezuelan production problems, but scarcity must be at an all time high for Maduro to go on record even though the Central Bank has simply decided to stop publishing annoying numbers like inflation, scarcity index, etc...
So what does the genius of Maduro proposes?
- "some people did not understand the message of November and December" 2013: that is, sell at the price I tell you to say or you will be looted. That is good for investment to boost production. Remember my warnings on the Daka affair?
- "whoever plays with the law will be in big trouble". Which law? What the private enterprise has asked is that either the law for "just" process is allowed, without price controls that are quickly outdated with high inflation, or that price controls remain but please, spare us the wasted time on fixing "just" prices that the regime does not respect anyway. I know as a fact that in many of recent reunions held between the regime and private enterprise they have reiterated that there is a contradiction in having both a law on "just" prices and a scheme on fixed prices that never get reviewed. Each time public officials seemed offended because, well, both laws are meant to milk private business, not to defend customer who in the end is suffering increasing scarcity of goods. It is always annoying when people rub your nose in your own shit and they are right....
- "Wednesday we are going to announce how to reach an equilibrium point in the distribution through Mercal of 50 products" 50? Why not 27 or 63? And what does equilibrium means? That only Mercal will have some stuff and no one else? And how can you reach "equilibrium" in distribution when you cannot have regular production, due to the lack of dollars for raw material import, damming bureaucracy and what not??
- on April 25 a new wave of inspections will be made in the country's stores because they cannot "live like capitalistic parasites". Good for them! Bureaucrats will have an easy time for these inspections, even in Caracas shelves are emptying fast! I am a capitalist and boy, do I wish I could find a prey to hook upon like a parasite! Impossible today in Venezuela unless, of course, you are hooked upon government contracts though the support of people like, say, Diosdado Cabello.
- Jorge Roig, president of private sector organization, was termed of ill advice to distribution and commerce, that listening to his advice will land you in jail. So, why not put Roig in jail once and for all and close once and for all private sector? I have not read, nor have time to seek which particular declaration of Roig has so inflamed Maduro ire. But I am willing to bet that it was a very sensible declaration and that its main fault was to illustrate once again why the chavista system can only lead to repeated failures. I will welcome any reader correcting me, proving that Roig is an agent of Obama and what not....
- "Just " prices will be now the benchmark to regulate prices AND fix them, "as it should be" says he. So the contradiction is solved: prices will be reevaluated, made them "just" and made them permanent though price fixing. No more inflation, no more scarcity, no more speculation. A Nobel for Maduro!!!!!! Il suffisait d'y penser!
- and as a conclusion for his radio address, not only he does not realize that his whole speech is an admission that the last decade has been a HUGE failure, but he forges ahead, says that his system is better than the capitalist system of 15 years ago defended by the opposition today. De Nile runs deep.....
Trust me, the worst is yet to come, unless miraculously the regime produces a wad of cash and import everything it needs for Mercal and that miraculously trucks and roads are operative........... On the other hand it may well be that Maduro is preparing the people for worse days ahead by bullshitting his way through, hanging high and dry Roig only to apply all of his recipes AFTER. All is possible these days, but I'aint holding my breath.
Monday, April 21, 2014
Stand offing happily in Venezuela
Easter week came and went without anything being solved in Venezuela.
I have been very busy on my personal emergencies, and trying to rest in between. Little time for news, not that it matters. The stuff I know about, that I live first hand, is the ability to work and produce. And on this front there has been no improvement. Whether the regime has a stash of dollars somewhere it is is not making them available for production. Maybe they are going to Cuba, to China, to corruption, but true productive business are having all the trouble in the world to get dollars to remain open, let alone be productive.
The dialogue/debate/guarimbalogue is going nowhere fast. To begin with a very substantial portion of the opposition thinks that Aveledo and co. are not representing the true interests and needs of the people, and I am not speaking of opposition only (1). The point is that the guarimbalogue is discussing the sex of angels without addressing our disastrous economic policies, our dependency on Cuba, on the lack of attack on true corruption (has anyone read anything about an investigation on the 50 million "commission" to Diosdado in the Venezuelan press? In fact, read this apologist and cry).
Meanwhile protest continue though they are are in a shifting mode. But peace is nowhere around the corner and the economic crisis keeps rolling on. The black market rate is at 67 even though the alleged "free" bolivar of SICAD 2 is at 50, nobody knowing how that value is attributed besides the will of the regime holders. And the last paper that still had a complete edition, El Universal, has gone down to a reduced edition, even though it did not publish the list of Venezuelan officials that Marco Rubio want to be pressured by Obama. A paper saving measure by El Universal? Even at SICAD 2 there is no printing material as the regime keeps suffocating freedom of expression, guarimabalogue and all.
I think I am going to focus on survival because no one out there cares about my needs. If the opposition is not able to send a commission of representatives to take a stand at the OAS, there is nothing to keep waiting for. If Maria Corina Machado has been booted and tomorrow a session of the Nazional Assembly is called as if nothing, why should I take these people seriously?
Fuck Aveledo, Capriles, Borges, Allup and the MUD!
--------------------
1- At least Aveledo had the wisdom to remind people that the student movement is autonomous from political parties.
I have been very busy on my personal emergencies, and trying to rest in between. Little time for news, not that it matters. The stuff I know about, that I live first hand, is the ability to work and produce. And on this front there has been no improvement. Whether the regime has a stash of dollars somewhere it is is not making them available for production. Maybe they are going to Cuba, to China, to corruption, but true productive business are having all the trouble in the world to get dollars to remain open, let alone be productive.
The dialogue/debate/guarimbalogue is going nowhere fast. To begin with a very substantial portion of the opposition thinks that Aveledo and co. are not representing the true interests and needs of the people, and I am not speaking of opposition only (1). The point is that the guarimbalogue is discussing the sex of angels without addressing our disastrous economic policies, our dependency on Cuba, on the lack of attack on true corruption (has anyone read anything about an investigation on the 50 million "commission" to Diosdado in the Venezuelan press? In fact, read this apologist and cry).
Meanwhile protest continue though they are are in a shifting mode. But peace is nowhere around the corner and the economic crisis keeps rolling on. The black market rate is at 67 even though the alleged "free" bolivar of SICAD 2 is at 50, nobody knowing how that value is attributed besides the will of the regime holders. And the last paper that still had a complete edition, El Universal, has gone down to a reduced edition, even though it did not publish the list of Venezuelan officials that Marco Rubio want to be pressured by Obama. A paper saving measure by El Universal? Even at SICAD 2 there is no printing material as the regime keeps suffocating freedom of expression, guarimabalogue and all.
I think I am going to focus on survival because no one out there cares about my needs. If the opposition is not able to send a commission of representatives to take a stand at the OAS, there is nothing to keep waiting for. If Maria Corina Machado has been booted and tomorrow a session of the Nazional Assembly is called as if nothing, why should I take these people seriously?
Fuck Aveledo, Capriles, Borges, Allup and the MUD!
--------------------
1- At least Aveledo had the wisdom to remind people that the student movement is autonomous from political parties.
Friday, April 18, 2014
Gabriel Garcia Marquez
The man died yesterday and has been today's news. I am no going to write much about it but I need to acknowledge that he was a rather poor politician, a maybe not so great human being, but one of the most stupendous writers ever. I have already written in 2007 a homage to Cien Años de Soledad, mentioning Love in the Time of Cholera and Chronicle of a Death Foretold, three essential books, to which if you are Latino American you should also add El General en su Laberinto.
One thing I have noticed it is the attacks made against him for his friendship for Fidel Castro. I want to make two comments on that.
First, Garcia Marquez could not let go from a revolution that was still "justifiable" in the 60ies. Castro offered him to direct a new style of news agency at a time he had not written yet 100 Years. That all of this went down the drain is another story. The fact of the matter is that in his old age Garcia Marquez moved to Mexico, not to Havana. And he never embraced Chavez. Amen of limiting his public contacts with his old friend Fidel. We could have hoped for more but we got at least that.
Second, we should not forget that one thing is the artist and another the public persona. The more so when the artist is a creator. For all of his political foibles Garcia Marquez did not let his politics pervade his art, at least not in the 4 books mentioned above. That is why those books are great masterpieces, because they speak to all of us, and probably much, much more to us, sentient beings, than the brain washed Cuban or Chavista. I am sorry for those who have the bad taste of celebrate the passing of one of the best writers of our times. Educated people should be able to make the difference between the likes of Wagner and Garcia Marquez, and the scum that glorified non creators like Dudamel are. To give you a recent example of reprehensible artist.
One thing I have noticed it is the attacks made against him for his friendship for Fidel Castro. I want to make two comments on that.
First, Garcia Marquez could not let go from a revolution that was still "justifiable" in the 60ies. Castro offered him to direct a new style of news agency at a time he had not written yet 100 Years. That all of this went down the drain is another story. The fact of the matter is that in his old age Garcia Marquez moved to Mexico, not to Havana. And he never embraced Chavez. Amen of limiting his public contacts with his old friend Fidel. We could have hoped for more but we got at least that.
Second, we should not forget that one thing is the artist and another the public persona. The more so when the artist is a creator. For all of his political foibles Garcia Marquez did not let his politics pervade his art, at least not in the 4 books mentioned above. That is why those books are great masterpieces, because they speak to all of us, and probably much, much more to us, sentient beings, than the brain washed Cuban or Chavista. I am sorry for those who have the bad taste of celebrate the passing of one of the best writers of our times. Educated people should be able to make the difference between the likes of Wagner and Garcia Marquez, and the scum that glorified non creators like Dudamel are. To give you a recent example of reprehensible artist.
Thursday, April 17, 2014
The US of A has a hard time to understand why South of the Rio Grande we have problems with them
Moises Naim explains how Fidel and Cuba took over Chavez and Venezuela
It is Maundy Thursday and I am tired after a very difficult week. Fortunately Moises Naim publishes a complete and brief summary on how Fidel Castro sucked the brain out of Chavez making this one transform Venezuela into a Cuban colony. Long time readers of this blog knew that, of course, but it is the first time I see this so explicitly printed in major media, title included: "Cuba fed a president’s fears and took over Venezuela".
The horrors of chavismo will be slowly but surely be revealed with time. The only question is what are going to say those who supported it even though so many denounced it?
Since it is in the Financial Time and that subscription may apply I am reproducing it complete below, video included. I apologize to the FT who offers to share the link but does not want to repost on Web. Here in Venezuela we have no such luxuries in time of resistance and I also will share the article through Twitter BEFORE I post this entry. I hope for their understanding if they find me out.
Cuba fed a president’s fears and took over Venezuela
By Moisés Naím
Caracas is paying the price for Chávez’s misplaced trust, writes Moisés Naím
The enormous influence that Cuba has gained in Venezuela is one of the most underreported geopolitical developments of recent times. It is also one of the most improbable. Venezuela is nine times bigger than Cuba, three times more populous, and its economy four times larger. The country boasts the world’s largest oil reserves. Yet critical functions of the Venezuelan state are either overseen or directly controlled by Cuban officials.
Venezuela receives Cuban health workers, sports trainers, bureaucrats, security personnel, militias and paramilitary groups. “We have over 30,000 members of Cuba’s Committees for the Defence of the Revolution in Venezuela,” boasted Juan José Rabilero, then head of the CDR, in 2007. The number is likely to have increased further since then.
A growing proportion of Venezuela’s imports are channelled through Cuban companies. Recently, Maria Corina Machado, an opposition leader, revealed the existence of a large warehouse of recently expired medicines imported through a Cuban intermediary – drugs allegedly purchased on the international market at a deep discount and resold at full price to the government.
The relationship goes beyond subsidies and advantageous business opportunities for Cuban agencies. Cuban officers control Venezuela’s public notaries and civil registries. Cubans oversee the computer systems of the presidency, ministries, social programmes, police and security services as well as the national oil company, according to Cristina Marcano, a journalist who has reported extensively on Cuba’s influence in Venezuela.
Then there is military co-operation. The minister of defence of a Latin American country told me: “During a meeting with high-ranking Venezuelan officers we reached several agreements on co-operation and other matters. Then three advisers with a distinctive Cuban accent joined the meeting and proceeded to change all we had agreed. The Venezuelan generals were clearly embarrassed but didn’t say a word . . . Clearly, the Cubans run the show.”
Why did the Venezuelan government allow this lopsided foreign intervention? The answer is Hugo Chávez. During his 14-year presidency he enjoyed absolute power thanks to his complete control of every institution that could have constrained him, from the judiciary to the legislature. He could also use Venezuela’s oil revenues at will.
One of the most transformational ways in which Chávez used the complete power he wielded was to let the Cubans in. He had many reasons to throw himself into the arms of Fidel Castro. He felt a deep affection, admiration and trust for the Cuban leader, who became a personal adviser, political mentor and geopolitical guide. Mr Castro also fed Chávez’s conviction that his many enemies – especially the US and the local elites – were out to get him and that his military and security services could not be trusted to provide the protection he needed. But the Cubans could reliably offer these services. Cuba also provided a ready-to-use international network of activists, non-government organisations and propagandists who boosted Chávez’s reputation abroad.
In return, Chávez instituted a programme of financial largesse that keeps Cuba’s economy afloat to this day. Caracas ships about 130,000 barrels of oil a day to the island on preferential terms – a small part of an aid programme that remains one of the world’s largest.
The extent to which Chávez was beholden to the Cuban regime was dramatically illustrated by the way in which he dealt with the cancer that would eventually kill him last year: he trusted only the doctors whom Mr Castro recommended, and his treatment mostly took place in Havana under a veil of secrecy.
Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, has deepened Caracas’s dependency on Havana even further. As students have taken to the streets in protest against an increasingly authoritarian regime the government has responded with a brutal repression that relies on many of the tools and tactics perfected by the police state that has run Cuba for too long.
The writer, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, is a former Venezuelan minister of industry and trade
The horrors of chavismo will be slowly but surely be revealed with time. The only question is what are going to say those who supported it even though so many denounced it?
Since it is in the Financial Time and that subscription may apply I am reproducing it complete below, video included. I apologize to the FT who offers to share the link but does not want to repost on Web. Here in Venezuela we have no such luxuries in time of resistance and I also will share the article through Twitter BEFORE I post this entry. I hope for their understanding if they find me out.
Cuba fed a president’s fears and took over Venezuela
By Moisés Naím
Caracas is paying the price for Chávez’s misplaced trust, writes Moisés Naím
The enormous influence that Cuba has gained in Venezuela is one of the most underreported geopolitical developments of recent times. It is also one of the most improbable. Venezuela is nine times bigger than Cuba, three times more populous, and its economy four times larger. The country boasts the world’s largest oil reserves. Yet critical functions of the Venezuelan state are either overseen or directly controlled by Cuban officials.
Venezuela receives Cuban health workers, sports trainers, bureaucrats, security personnel, militias and paramilitary groups. “We have over 30,000 members of Cuba’s Committees for the Defence of the Revolution in Venezuela,” boasted Juan José Rabilero, then head of the CDR, in 2007. The number is likely to have increased further since then.
A growing proportion of Venezuela’s imports are channelled through Cuban companies. Recently, Maria Corina Machado, an opposition leader, revealed the existence of a large warehouse of recently expired medicines imported through a Cuban intermediary – drugs allegedly purchased on the international market at a deep discount and resold at full price to the government.
The relationship goes beyond subsidies and advantageous business opportunities for Cuban agencies. Cuban officers control Venezuela’s public notaries and civil registries. Cubans oversee the computer systems of the presidency, ministries, social programmes, police and security services as well as the national oil company, according to Cristina Marcano, a journalist who has reported extensively on Cuba’s influence in Venezuela.
Then there is military co-operation. The minister of defence of a Latin American country told me: “During a meeting with high-ranking Venezuelan officers we reached several agreements on co-operation and other matters. Then three advisers with a distinctive Cuban accent joined the meeting and proceeded to change all we had agreed. The Venezuelan generals were clearly embarrassed but didn’t say a word . . . Clearly, the Cubans run the show.”
Why did the Venezuelan government allow this lopsided foreign intervention? The answer is Hugo Chávez. During his 14-year presidency he enjoyed absolute power thanks to his complete control of every institution that could have constrained him, from the judiciary to the legislature. He could also use Venezuela’s oil revenues at will.
One of the most transformational ways in which Chávez used the complete power he wielded was to let the Cubans in. He had many reasons to throw himself into the arms of Fidel Castro. He felt a deep affection, admiration and trust for the Cuban leader, who became a personal adviser, political mentor and geopolitical guide. Mr Castro also fed Chávez’s conviction that his many enemies – especially the US and the local elites – were out to get him and that his military and security services could not be trusted to provide the protection he needed. But the Cubans could reliably offer these services. Cuba also provided a ready-to-use international network of activists, non-government organisations and propagandists who boosted Chávez’s reputation abroad.
In return, Chávez instituted a programme of financial largesse that keeps Cuba’s economy afloat to this day. Caracas ships about 130,000 barrels of oil a day to the island on preferential terms – a small part of an aid programme that remains one of the world’s largest.
The extent to which Chávez was beholden to the Cuban regime was dramatically illustrated by the way in which he dealt with the cancer that would eventually kill him last year: he trusted only the doctors whom Mr Castro recommended, and his treatment mostly took place in Havana under a veil of secrecy.
Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, has deepened Caracas’s dependency on Havana even further. As students have taken to the streets in protest against an increasingly authoritarian regime the government has responded with a brutal repression that relies on many of the tools and tactics perfected by the police state that has run Cuba for too long.
The writer, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, is a former Venezuelan minister of industry and trade
Mientras Dudamel sigue vendiéndose a la represión Montero nos da un himno libertario
Gabriela Montero nos da una combinación de la Polonesa Heroica de Chopin con el himno nacional de Venezuela.
El único problema es que el chaburrismo ni sabe, ni le interesa, lo que Chopin y Polonia representan. En fin, que se hace .....
El único problema es que el chaburrismo ni sabe, ni le interesa, lo que Chopin y Polonia representan. En fin, que se hace .....
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Close to Easter the Guarimbalogue starts laying empty eggs
I am going to be brief: the vaunted results of last night "dialogue" leave me cold. True, Aveledo announces that a better truth commission WILL BE named, that an amnesty law has been rejected but that other ways WILL BE tried, that the opposition WILL BE able to offer suggestions to the fight against crime plan, that the many public officials that should have been chosen long ago WILL BE picked according to the law.
Am I the only one detecting a pattern of wishful thinking? Can I trade 4 WILL BE for a single IS?
See, when Patiño, the Ecuador foreign minister and maybe the biggest fan of chavismo inside UNASUR expresses wonderment at how much was achieved in a single session, well, I am suspicious.
There has been so many WILL BE in the past that went absolutely nowhere, that ended up favoring the regime, that I shall be excused to express my doubts.
That UNASUR was prompt in abandoning the opposition in April-May 2013 makes me doubt very much that this time around that they may be more serious.
That the people who made possible through gurarimba pressure that the regime accepted to sit down with the opposition are not present at the table makes me doubt that the results will be received with elation by the hoi polloi on the barricades, or not.
I think we should forget that, keep protesting as long as the regime does not throw at us a real bone; and for good measure actually challenge Aveledo to force him to bring him on the bacon or step down along with Capriles. I am sorry but for all their merits they did lose in October 2012, the "lost" again in April 2013, they lost a lot in December 2013. How can I believe that this time around they will get something out of the regime? Just my opinion, what do I know.
Am I the only one detecting a pattern of wishful thinking? Can I trade 4 WILL BE for a single IS?
See, when Patiño, the Ecuador foreign minister and maybe the biggest fan of chavismo inside UNASUR expresses wonderment at how much was achieved in a single session, well, I am suspicious.
There has been so many WILL BE in the past that went absolutely nowhere, that ended up favoring the regime, that I shall be excused to express my doubts.
That UNASUR was prompt in abandoning the opposition in April-May 2013 makes me doubt very much that this time around that they may be more serious.
That the people who made possible through gurarimba pressure that the regime accepted to sit down with the opposition are not present at the table makes me doubt that the results will be received with elation by the hoi polloi on the barricades, or not.
I think we should forget that, keep protesting as long as the regime does not throw at us a real bone; and for good measure actually challenge Aveledo to force him to bring him on the bacon or step down along with Capriles. I am sorry but for all their merits they did lose in October 2012, the "lost" again in April 2013, they lost a lot in December 2013. How can I believe that this time around they will get something out of the regime? Just my opinion, what do I know.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
La MUD está, en verdad, meando fuera del perol
Y en particular AD, Copei y Primero Justicia que, bueno, ¡se vayan pa'l carajo!
Estoy leyendo que en San Cristobal quieren primarias para el 5 de mayo para poder sustituir a Ceballos a finales de mayo. Eso debe ser una de los más grandes desatinos políticos que yo haya leído en años. Y valga Dios que hemos leído cualquier tipo de barbaridad.
O sea, si entiendo bien, mientras la MUD en Caracas dice mas o menos directamente que vivimos bajo una dictadura, que lo que le hicieron a Ceballos, Scarano y Machado es una barbaridad, rapidito por detrás van a recoger lo que puedan para sacarle provecho a la cosa y sacudirse a Leo y VP. La escusa que también se lee por allí es que la esposa de Ceballos tiene rabo de paja. Yo no se si eso es verdad ni me importa al fin y al cabo. Lo que importa aquí es que haya una respuesta política contundente al gobierno y a un TSJ vendido. Y eso, haciendo primarias y otras mariqueras seudo democráticas en un periodo de crisis extrema no es la respuesta.
Tal vez la respuesta con principios y ética que sugerí hace un par de días no guste a muchos. Pues bien, aquí le va otra sugerencia, mas sencilla, menos hipócrita que hacer primarias.
Si la Ceballos tiene rabo de paja en verdad se le dice muy cortésmente a Voluntad Popular que ponga otro candidato viable. Si no lo tiene, mala suerte y se coloca a una figura política importante INDEPENDIENTEMENTE de su afiliación política. El objetivo de ese candidato es rechazar en la campaña los abusos del TSJ y de hacer la elección un plebiscito contra el TSJ y Vielma Mora. Punto y aparte.
La elección NO PUEDE tener otro objetivo. El mismo candidato tiene que prometer que si el TSJ se hecha para atrás entonces renunciará inmediatamente para que Ceballos vuelva a ocupar la alcaldía. ¿Para que primarias si lo que se necesita es un carajo con las botas bien puestas que va a humillar a Vielma Mora y poner al TSJ en tela de juicio? ¿O es que en vedar en la MUD creen que el próximo alcalde de San Cristobal va a ser un alcalde normal? ¿O es que la MUD cree que haciendo una campaña de alcalde prometiendo reparar los huecos dejados por la guarimba de San Cristobal va a motivar a la gente?
Pero eso no es todo. Cuando veo la fotico de Ramos Allup todo abrazadito con lo peorcito que tiene el chavismo no se si vomitar o llorar. Vomitar de asco o llorar que un político que se la echa de chévere y machete no pueda controlarse mejor un primer día de debate. Que le de la mano y le hable con cortesía a esos bandidos es una cosa, que se sonrían descaradamente es otra. ¡Que vaina, coño!
Es que esa gente no termina de entender el porque de la Salida, de la Guarimaba. No es con fotos de Ramos Allup abrazándose con Didalco Bolivar, o Capriles lloriqueando que la gente lo abandonó en diciembre que van a solucionar la cosa, que van a convencer a la gente que su estrategia va a funcionar. Es que ellos parecen INCAPACES de entender sus metidas de patas, y para colmo nos echan la culpa después.
Si la vaina sigue así yo no voto más. No será porque no crea en el CNE, no será porque hay trampa, no, nada de eso. No voy a votar mas porque parece que lo único que me ofrecen para escoger, sea la MUD o sea el chavismo es entre un corrupto, un idiota o un asomado y con ninguno de esos vamos a salir del atolladero. Nunca.
Estoy leyendo que en San Cristobal quieren primarias para el 5 de mayo para poder sustituir a Ceballos a finales de mayo. Eso debe ser una de los más grandes desatinos políticos que yo haya leído en años. Y valga Dios que hemos leído cualquier tipo de barbaridad.
O sea, si entiendo bien, mientras la MUD en Caracas dice mas o menos directamente que vivimos bajo una dictadura, que lo que le hicieron a Ceballos, Scarano y Machado es una barbaridad, rapidito por detrás van a recoger lo que puedan para sacarle provecho a la cosa y sacudirse a Leo y VP. La escusa que también se lee por allí es que la esposa de Ceballos tiene rabo de paja. Yo no se si eso es verdad ni me importa al fin y al cabo. Lo que importa aquí es que haya una respuesta política contundente al gobierno y a un TSJ vendido. Y eso, haciendo primarias y otras mariqueras seudo democráticas en un periodo de crisis extrema no es la respuesta.
Tal vez la respuesta con principios y ética que sugerí hace un par de días no guste a muchos. Pues bien, aquí le va otra sugerencia, mas sencilla, menos hipócrita que hacer primarias.
Si la Ceballos tiene rabo de paja en verdad se le dice muy cortésmente a Voluntad Popular que ponga otro candidato viable. Si no lo tiene, mala suerte y se coloca a una figura política importante INDEPENDIENTEMENTE de su afiliación política. El objetivo de ese candidato es rechazar en la campaña los abusos del TSJ y de hacer la elección un plebiscito contra el TSJ y Vielma Mora. Punto y aparte.
La elección NO PUEDE tener otro objetivo. El mismo candidato tiene que prometer que si el TSJ se hecha para atrás entonces renunciará inmediatamente para que Ceballos vuelva a ocupar la alcaldía. ¿Para que primarias si lo que se necesita es un carajo con las botas bien puestas que va a humillar a Vielma Mora y poner al TSJ en tela de juicio? ¿O es que en vedar en la MUD creen que el próximo alcalde de San Cristobal va a ser un alcalde normal? ¿O es que la MUD cree que haciendo una campaña de alcalde prometiendo reparar los huecos dejados por la guarimba de San Cristobal va a motivar a la gente?
Pero eso no es todo. Cuando veo la fotico de Ramos Allup todo abrazadito con lo peorcito que tiene el chavismo no se si vomitar o llorar. Vomitar de asco o llorar que un político que se la echa de chévere y machete no pueda controlarse mejor un primer día de debate. Que le de la mano y le hable con cortesía a esos bandidos es una cosa, que se sonrían descaradamente es otra. ¡Que vaina, coño!
Nos pasan esta foto con leyenda. Pero preferimos dejar solo la foto. Los comentarios son de uds. pic.twitter.com/5e00iJbY8g
— Reporte Confidencial (@RConfidencial) April 16, 2014Es que esa gente no termina de entender el porque de la Salida, de la Guarimaba. No es con fotos de Ramos Allup abrazándose con Didalco Bolivar, o Capriles lloriqueando que la gente lo abandonó en diciembre que van a solucionar la cosa, que van a convencer a la gente que su estrategia va a funcionar. Es que ellos parecen INCAPACES de entender sus metidas de patas, y para colmo nos echan la culpa después.
Si la vaina sigue así yo no voto más. No será porque no crea en el CNE, no será porque hay trampa, no, nada de eso. No voy a votar mas porque parece que lo único que me ofrecen para escoger, sea la MUD o sea el chavismo es entre un corrupto, un idiota o un asomado y con ninguno de esos vamos a salir del atolladero. Nunca.
Monday, April 14, 2014
Munich versus Londres
 |
| Talking at the EU parliament. |
I read twice the infamous article of Luis Vicente Leon and I really, really want to believe that it was ill edited and thus he did not mean what he meant. In short, no need to elaborate, from reading the article you gather that not only resistance is futile, that the opposition is lost forever and that the best we can hope now for Venezuela is a corporatism state system, that is, a state that controls pretty much everything and considers interest groups and the private sector as mere contractors for its needs.
Luis Vicente Leon is the spokes person for Datanalisis, a pollster with a long tradition of occasional sulfur smell, and as such he is the frustrated wanna-be final guru of the opposition. In short, for years I have known that reading Leon, when you have the stomach for it, must be filtered by his desire to be considered the oracle of the opposition, the one through which we finally will get out from under Chavez shadow. Since he has failed I suppose that article is a his spiteful way to tell us: "I told you!"
The most striking thing for that OpEd piece is that the man actually seems not to mind the outcome, that it may actually be a relief to have a country where the regime exerts finally a tight political control but where in exchange it allows for more viable economic working conditions. As if it were possible considering that the extraordinary corruption of the regime would preclude for an equitable share of wealth between the regime potentates and the remaining private sector, either co-opted by force, or simply bought out. Truly, a corporatist state where the economical control is exerted by those with the political control, the worst form of capitalism, China like...
Now, Luis Vicente may be right, but he is politically tone deaf and deserves utter contempt for so openly preparing his comfortable future when repression succeeds finally.
That is, if repression succeeds, because we have a more hopeful vision, a proof of stamina and democratic will when Maria Corina Machado, expelled illegally from Venezuelan Parliament, is received with honors by the foreign commission of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. Interestingly we learn that the Venezuelan embassy was invited but declined to attend which is, in democratic European union parlance, unacceptable and an admission of guilt.
Whatever the effect of Maria Corina Machado (who was also received by the Brazilian congress and will be received in other places) we have two visions: the neo-collaborationist one of the L.V. Leon of this world and the resistance one, the democrats, like Machado.
The thing about time of troubles is that it reveals with great cruelty the truth in people.
A footnote on guarimbalogue
Just to let you know that last week exercise has disliked the regime and that I am pretty sure nothing will come of it.
Maria Corina Machado spoke at the European Parliament. Take that UNASUR credibility, fairness, alleged even handed, etc BS....
The students said that unless certain conditions are not met, even if finally invited they will not attend. Meanwhile the MUD is creating commissions to discuss stuff with the regime and nobody is paying attention.
Repression went hard this week end in Bello Monte area. So there is more love and concern of Maduro toward his people, who can add one more murdered student to his account.
Etc...
The problem remains that a regime that has lost the 50% of support wants to impose 100% of its model. Guess which side has to yield if peace is ever to come again?
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Si a cada 11 le toca su 13, pues a cada 13 le toca su 12
El chavismo está hoy ¿conmemorando? ¿celebrando? o tal vez ¿añorando? el mes de abril de 2002, un desastre que les sirve de Playa Girón. Porque otra cosa no tienen para su épica sino ese desastre del cual se salvo Chávez de carambola. Bueno, cuando escribo "se" salvo quiero decir "lo" salvaron porque el estaba lloriqueando en sotanas y en la playita de la Orchila donde lo habían puesto su incompetencia y su inconsciencia. Pero por suerte para Chávez, la incompetencia del otro lado fue mayor, demostrando que las Fuerzas Armadas de Venezuela ya no son ni capaces de hacer un golpe, sea en 1992 o 2002.El chavismo tiene un problema de épica ya que solo cuenta con los estentóreos intestinales de su héroe en el Museo Militar o en aquel túnel de tren del cual no quiero acordarme. Ni siquiera en su muerte pudo el líder crear un momento de épica, entregándose como lo hizo a unos extranjeros que lo aislaron antes de matarlo. Con el circo del funeral, sus poco iluminados lugartenientes no mejoraron el asunto, pasando luego directo a un trágico vodevil fascista que nos tiene a todos en ascuas, chavistas y no chavistas.
Después de casi 15 años jodiendo al país, lo único que el chavismo ha producido es "!Uh¡ !Ah¡ Chávez no se va" (y se fue) y "a cada 11 le toca su 13". Pues yo no sé lo que tienen que celebrar con eso del 13 de abril, si es que lo celebran en verdad porque lo único positivo para el chavismo fue salirse de ese gran susto. Si vemos bien las cosas, aunque nunca lo sabremos, la "dictadura" de Carmona no duró ni 48 horas y no empezó ni tan mal: se le tenia prohibido participar en las elecciones venideras (en 6 meses) a cualquier mimbro del gobierno de Carmona. Estoy seguro que la constituyente que seguiría el carmonazo hubiese cambiado eso, pero el asunto es que Carmona dio un golpe (DESPUÉS de la salida de Chávez que fue sin golpe, preguntarle a Lucas Rincón) prometiendo que el no se quedaba mas de 6 meses. Chávez desde el principio pidió 12 años y después pasó a vitalicio. Eso es una gran diferencia cualitativa.
El asunto es que con la excusa de abril 2002 el chavismo se arropó indebidamente con un manto de martirio que no le correspondía y que utilizó para vengarse de insultos reales e imaginarios. Que si Carmona tumbó a Chávez, pues cual es el problema de inhabilitar los que me caen mal, de tumbar alcaldes. Que si Carmona disolvió la Asamblea Nacional, pues cual es el problema de quitarle competencias al que no me gusta, como se lo hacen todos los días a Ledezma o a Capriles. Que si el "golpe" de abril violaba la constitución, pues cual es el problema que en la década que siguió Chávez se la violó tantas veces que hoy en día es irreconocible. Que si Carmona desconoció la voluntad del pueblo, pues cual es el problema en que el CNE me permita hacer trampa electoral. Que si Carmona representaba los ladrones de la cuarta, pues cual es el problema en que nosotros robemos mas de lo que se haya robado en toda la historia de Venezuela junta.
Pero he aquí el 12 de febrero de 2014. A partir de ese día unos estudiantes valientes desenmascararon lo vil y ruin del liderazgo chavismo, esa sarta de ladrones, traficantes de drogas, entreguistas de la soberanía, mentirosos violentos y groseros como cualquier fascista que se respete. Desde el 12 se reveló que la cúpula del chavismo es una pudrición, con un olor que sofoca tanto a sus partidarios como a sus oponentes.
A cada 13 le toca su 12, podemos decir ahora.
Saturday, April 12, 2014
How much "save Castro!" is part of the agenda about Venezuela?
I have written on and off about how vital Venezuela has become for the survival of the Castro brothers, and maybe their system. In the latest mention of this I was listing LatAm countries whose leaders cannot bear the fall of the Cuban regime as it would be a blow of their raison d'être. I need to come back on this with more emphasis after the words of Brazil's ex president Lula calling upon Maduro to create a "coalition" government to bring Venezuela out of its current crisis (in English here).
Let's start with the apparent sensible aspect of these words. In a normal country majorities are negotiated. Lula himself never had an absolute majority and has had parliament associates that he must take into account for setting the priorities of his administration. For all of Lula defaults, and he has many, he ruled as an apparent democrat. Or was at the very least forced to do so and play the game according to the rules. Even in countries where electoral systems favor a dual party system, coalitions do exist. The US is a big example when you consider that neither the GOP or the DEM are monolithic parties, but a coalition of interests agreeing on some basic points.
Thus Lula advice could seem sensible considering the deep crisis that Venezuela suffers. Unfortunately for him the PSUV, the regime's official party was created with the firm intention to fuse together all the original parties that supported Chavez. That it failed to do so has not modified the Leninist bent of the PSUV and for them it is simply impossible to conceive a coalition. Their everyday practice, from town-halls to Miraflores Palace restate everyday that commitment to establish in Venezuela a one party system. For chavismo negotiations are at best punctual, within a strategy of gaining time while the final blow is readied. See the examples of 2002, 2003, 2004.
Also, Lula cannot fail to know that given the current situation of Venezuela, the opposition is unable and unwilling to enter into such a coalition whose sole purpose would be to spread to them the blame of 15 years of mismanagement. Even the soft belly of the opposition would agree upon such as scheme if the regime were to part with substantial amounts of of its power. The Venezuelan opposition is a democrat one and thus expect what democrats expect everywhere: in a political deal all sides get something.
So, was Lula daydreaming when he offered such as DoA proposal?
No.
There are two options here, and they are not mutually exclusive.
Lula in fact sent a message to Maduro telling him that inside the frame of MERCOSUR his economic plans were nonviable and would lead to disaster, not only for Venezuela. So, either Maduro changes his policies or else. And if he does not know how to change them he should do a "coalition" government which may just mean the inclusion of some technocrats that would be allowed to work without major political pressure. Here, what matters the most, is that Venezuela finds a way to pay its debt towards Brazil. Since 2002 we know that Lula has cared shit about Human Rights in Venezuela and the rule of law.
But I prefer the second option. For all of these Castro lovers (Lula, Bachelet, Kirchner, Correa, and even Peña Nieto!) the failure of Venezuela would imply the collapse of Castroist Cuba. At this point in history all of these political careers have been built to a certain extent on the directions from Havana to their followers support election of leftist pseudo democratic governments as a temporary political option, once the Cold War was over.
Lula is the poster boy case of such policies. Elected president of Brazil he became the economical lamb making sure Brazil remain politically stable and kept growing. But surely if slowly he started introducing his people in all echelons of Brazilian bureaucracy for future protection, with his capping coup, the election of his designated successor. Meanwhile, wherever it was less crucial, Lula revealed his true self, promoting extremes such as the Foro de Sao Paulo or Chavez in Venezuela.
You can easily imagine that the fall of Maduro would be a hard blow to a decades long strategy of infiltration all across Latin America. An infiltration advanced enough that it has been able to neutralize presidents like Santos in Colombia or Piñera in Chile. Only Uribe in the last two decades (with a few burps from Peru's pre Humala presidency) has dared confront that angelical left mind set.
For Lula himself, who espoused Brazilian imperialism as a convenient tool to advance his continental political agenda, the blow would be particularly damaging and painful. Hence his efforts to preserve chavismo even under a coalition. If the student led movement were to win in Venezuela, the mental change of the country would be profound and would include the outright and definitive rejection of the Castro agenda and of a half century at vain attempts at lowering the US. The fall of Maduro may just be enough to give new wings to the Brazilian discontent to also push aside Lula and Roussef. The victory of the Venezuelan students could see the onrush of a new ideological free thinking including a decided control over politicians in all of Latin America. And that, from right to left, is a No-No
--------------------
PS: Maduro of course poo-pooed Lula. He claims that he already presides over a coalition that includes "diversely sexualized" folks. Besides showing that he is truly an idiot, if Maduro were indeed supportive of sexual minorities he would have approved gay marriage which would greatly simplify my life in these hours of tragedy.
Let's start with the apparent sensible aspect of these words. In a normal country majorities are negotiated. Lula himself never had an absolute majority and has had parliament associates that he must take into account for setting the priorities of his administration. For all of Lula defaults, and he has many, he ruled as an apparent democrat. Or was at the very least forced to do so and play the game according to the rules. Even in countries where electoral systems favor a dual party system, coalitions do exist. The US is a big example when you consider that neither the GOP or the DEM are monolithic parties, but a coalition of interests agreeing on some basic points.
Thus Lula advice could seem sensible considering the deep crisis that Venezuela suffers. Unfortunately for him the PSUV, the regime's official party was created with the firm intention to fuse together all the original parties that supported Chavez. That it failed to do so has not modified the Leninist bent of the PSUV and for them it is simply impossible to conceive a coalition. Their everyday practice, from town-halls to Miraflores Palace restate everyday that commitment to establish in Venezuela a one party system. For chavismo negotiations are at best punctual, within a strategy of gaining time while the final blow is readied. See the examples of 2002, 2003, 2004.
Also, Lula cannot fail to know that given the current situation of Venezuela, the opposition is unable and unwilling to enter into such a coalition whose sole purpose would be to spread to them the blame of 15 years of mismanagement. Even the soft belly of the opposition would agree upon such as scheme if the regime were to part with substantial amounts of of its power. The Venezuelan opposition is a democrat one and thus expect what democrats expect everywhere: in a political deal all sides get something.
So, was Lula daydreaming when he offered such as DoA proposal?
No.
There are two options here, and they are not mutually exclusive.
Lula in fact sent a message to Maduro telling him that inside the frame of MERCOSUR his economic plans were nonviable and would lead to disaster, not only for Venezuela. So, either Maduro changes his policies or else. And if he does not know how to change them he should do a "coalition" government which may just mean the inclusion of some technocrats that would be allowed to work without major political pressure. Here, what matters the most, is that Venezuela finds a way to pay its debt towards Brazil. Since 2002 we know that Lula has cared shit about Human Rights in Venezuela and the rule of law.
But I prefer the second option. For all of these Castro lovers (Lula, Bachelet, Kirchner, Correa, and even Peña Nieto!) the failure of Venezuela would imply the collapse of Castroist Cuba. At this point in history all of these political careers have been built to a certain extent on the directions from Havana to their followers support election of leftist pseudo democratic governments as a temporary political option, once the Cold War was over.
Lula is the poster boy case of such policies. Elected president of Brazil he became the economical lamb making sure Brazil remain politically stable and kept growing. But surely if slowly he started introducing his people in all echelons of Brazilian bureaucracy for future protection, with his capping coup, the election of his designated successor. Meanwhile, wherever it was less crucial, Lula revealed his true self, promoting extremes such as the Foro de Sao Paulo or Chavez in Venezuela.
You can easily imagine that the fall of Maduro would be a hard blow to a decades long strategy of infiltration all across Latin America. An infiltration advanced enough that it has been able to neutralize presidents like Santos in Colombia or Piñera in Chile. Only Uribe in the last two decades (with a few burps from Peru's pre Humala presidency) has dared confront that angelical left mind set.
For Lula himself, who espoused Brazilian imperialism as a convenient tool to advance his continental political agenda, the blow would be particularly damaging and painful. Hence his efforts to preserve chavismo even under a coalition. If the student led movement were to win in Venezuela, the mental change of the country would be profound and would include the outright and definitive rejection of the Castro agenda and of a half century at vain attempts at lowering the US. The fall of Maduro may just be enough to give new wings to the Brazilian discontent to also push aside Lula and Roussef. The victory of the Venezuelan students could see the onrush of a new ideological free thinking including a decided control over politicians in all of Latin America. And that, from right to left, is a No-No
--------------------
PS: Maduro of course poo-pooed Lula. He claims that he already presides over a coalition that includes "diversely sexualized" folks. Besides showing that he is truly an idiot, if Maduro were indeed supportive of sexual minorities he would have approved gay marriage which would greatly simplify my life in these hours of tragedy.
Friday, April 11, 2014
Dialogue, monologue or guarimbalogue? Venezuelan political discourse peculiarities
UPDATED.
I am not only a little preoccupied about personal matters but to tell you the truth from the start I lost any possible interest in the "dialogue" attempt last night at Miraflores. See, the regime is so predictable, such a permanent rehash of old grievances that one could have easily guessed the discourse.
The monologue
Last night it was my turn to stay over at the health center that the S.O. has been staying these days. Yes, even in functional high level health centers of Venezuela it is advised that a relative spends the night on a cot in the sick room. The S.O. having recovered somewhat from recent treatments asked me to put on the "debate" that was taking place in Miraflores. We caught it with Andres Velazquez intervention, which was passable. He was succeeded by Aristobulo Isturiz, Anzoategui current governor, and the travesty started. After a few minutes the S.O. found strength somewhere out of his apparent slumber to say "enough of this fucking idiot, turn it off".
Sponsored by UNASUR, last night was finally the first encounter on TV of spokespeople from the regime and the opposition. The regime must be feeling enough heat that it acceded to this highly dangerous show. After the absurd repression of these last two months, repression that has yielded no tangible result for the regime but nasty brutish backlash overseas, it needed desperately a picture of all smiling as if this were a normal country. With a lot of reticence the opposition agreed as long as a certain format would be respected and that could not be interpreted as the regime scoring a point. Maybe they should not have worried that much, the regime did a fine job of ridiculing itself in front of the national audience (it was a cadena) and in front of UNASUR sympathetic ears that must be having more and more second thoughts about validating further Venezuela's regime style.
I only watched Aristobulo and it was pathetic. He is said to be one of the wiliest minds of chavismo, maybe to be a tad less autocratic than his brethren. Last night he proved those wrong. He has the same mental chip as any other chavista, cannot leave behind what happened 10 years ago and, basically, thinks that not only they are perfect but what they do today is amply validated, out of all proportions, with what happened in April 2002. His worst offense, for me, was when he said that chavismo DID respect electoral results whereas the opposition did not, conveniently forgetting how elected opposition officials are deprived of as many means as possible from exerting their role. For example, Ledezma election 5 years ago for Caracas at large mayor was followed by the immediate approval of a law that gutted his office, passing most of his responsibilities, and patronage, to an appointed official. For example, Capriles difficult reelection in December 2012 was followed by the immediate appointment of the losing chavista, Jaua, at the head of a para-governing organization which has for Miranda state a budget that compares favorably with the one Capriles receives. One can only be flabbergasted in front of such cynical lies.
Another good moment must have been when Rafael Ramirez stated that the economical model of the regime was successful. With 60% inflation, humongous foreign debts, importing maybe 75% of our food, having stopped the publication of verifiable statistics, a decrease in oil production, and what not, the guy has the chutzpah to declare victory.
All of this simply reveal in a dramatic way that chavismo is a cornered system, self-locked in an series of cliches and dead ideologies. I wonder even if their speech is a monologue, seems rather a litany. How can you reach with them a basic vocabulary and grammar to attempt a dialogue?
The dialogue
From what I read the presentation of the opposition envoys were over all much better than the regime's one, if anything by showing that apparently the opposition is more knowledgeable on dossiers and country's problem than the regime trapped in a frozen mind set. It is amazing that people that have been 15 years in office seem way outpaced in delivery by an opposition that is constantly harassed and denied access to real data.
But that is not really the point. The point is that the regime pretends to have a dialogue without conditions. Whereas the opposition offers very reasonable conditions, things that in normal countries are not considered "conditions". For example it wants political prisoners to be released. The opposition does not mind them being sent to trial but wants them to be judged in liberty until a sentence comes, like it happens to the very few corrupt and abusive chavistas that have to be sent to trial. Another request is that the constitution is followed. That means in practical term that it is not possible that the high court of 32 members has never a dissent opinion. That means that the offices of comptroller of the nation is given to someone that actually will control the expenses of ALL elected officials, be them chavista or opposition. And other such examples.
What does chavismo want? That opposition ceases all type of protests, recognize the primacy and mandatory line for Venezuela organization even if last April 2013 there was a an electoral fraud to hide that chavismo had lost a majority of the vote. The government has all and wants things to stay that way. Is dialogue, any type of dialogue and agreement a possibility?
The guarimbalogue
In the face of the stubbornness of the regime, of its inability to find solutions to the problems of Venezuela what is left to do? Little but not hopeless.
We must participate in the discussion tables that the UNASUR wants to set but we should be firm as we have been in this first round. And the protest must continue non stop, even if violent barricades, guarimbas, are a nasty byproduct. After all, that the regime has been forced to accept such a pantomime is a success for guarimbas, no matter how these have been criticized, even by Capriles. In fact, if Capriles last night was able to present a reasonable survey of the situation in a cadena, it is because guarimbas allowed for it, with the inherent contradictions that not only he could not control them, but he criticized them.
Last night we had a guarimbalogue, we had a mandatory cadena where for the first time in a decade it was possible for some chavistas to discover that the opposition existed, that it was not a figment of their imagination, that it was more articulated than their own leaders, that it went beyond guarimbas and that it had forced the regime in that admission. Just by itself it vindicated two months of protests and sufferings.
If you do not understand or agree with what I just wrote in the last paragraph let me give you the following image. We are always told never to pull a thread from a hand knitted sweater because the whole thing may just fall apart. This is exactly what may have happened last night to chavismo. This one is a monstrous knitted coalition that includes narco traffickers, big time corrupts, incompetent people that have a job only because they are chavistas, resentful leftists, taliban ones, pro Cuba agents, ambitious military and what not. It is sort of a sweater with horrifying patterns. Last night may have been the thread that if pulled adequately, for long enough, may end up unraveling the whole thing.
But I am not holding my breath.
-------------------
UPDATE.
Reading the press this Saturday morning as to last Thursday night show I find a certain contentment within the opposition OpEdistia. I would not be so sanguine.
True, it was a major achievement for the opposition and that presentation maybe the beginning of something. But there is one thing that we should not forget: chavismo mind dose not work like hers and for them the "failure" may actually be a good thing. Let me explain.
Chavismo is that ugly sweater described above, and as such it is composed of mostly failures led by mediocrities. What allowed them so much power was a demagogic language, their willingness to waste the country's wealth instead of investing it, and a hateful leader who unfortunately knew how to reach for the heart and fears of an uneducated mass. It is/was an historical accident made possible by self sufficiency of a decadent political class.
The failure Thursday night of the chavista representative to go out of the written script of resentment and ideology may actually be good for the regime. You need to understand that dictatorship are by definition the rule of a minority over a majority through the use of brute force. As such, the regime reminded the minority that supports them that they need to stick with them otherwise in a post chavista world that would value again education, skills, competence, effort, social restraint, rule of law, they will be relegated again to the bottom of the scale as long as they refuse to play by the rules of civilized society. The contrast between the representatives of the regime and those of the opposition crudely reminded them that only by supporting vile mediocrities like Diosdado Cabello will the chavismo core retain its privileges.
Through this comment I do not mean to state that dialogue is worthy or a waste of time, that the opposition will gain more or less than the regime, just point out that sitting at a table for a few hours is only the beginning of a process of unpredictable consequences.....
I am not only a little preoccupied about personal matters but to tell you the truth from the start I lost any possible interest in the "dialogue" attempt last night at Miraflores. See, the regime is so predictable, such a permanent rehash of old grievances that one could have easily guessed the discourse.
The monologue
Last night it was my turn to stay over at the health center that the S.O. has been staying these days. Yes, even in functional high level health centers of Venezuela it is advised that a relative spends the night on a cot in the sick room. The S.O. having recovered somewhat from recent treatments asked me to put on the "debate" that was taking place in Miraflores. We caught it with Andres Velazquez intervention, which was passable. He was succeeded by Aristobulo Isturiz, Anzoategui current governor, and the travesty started. After a few minutes the S.O. found strength somewhere out of his apparent slumber to say "enough of this fucking idiot, turn it off".
Sponsored by UNASUR, last night was finally the first encounter on TV of spokespeople from the regime and the opposition. The regime must be feeling enough heat that it acceded to this highly dangerous show. After the absurd repression of these last two months, repression that has yielded no tangible result for the regime but nasty brutish backlash overseas, it needed desperately a picture of all smiling as if this were a normal country. With a lot of reticence the opposition agreed as long as a certain format would be respected and that could not be interpreted as the regime scoring a point. Maybe they should not have worried that much, the regime did a fine job of ridiculing itself in front of the national audience (it was a cadena) and in front of UNASUR sympathetic ears that must be having more and more second thoughts about validating further Venezuela's regime style.
I only watched Aristobulo and it was pathetic. He is said to be one of the wiliest minds of chavismo, maybe to be a tad less autocratic than his brethren. Last night he proved those wrong. He has the same mental chip as any other chavista, cannot leave behind what happened 10 years ago and, basically, thinks that not only they are perfect but what they do today is amply validated, out of all proportions, with what happened in April 2002. His worst offense, for me, was when he said that chavismo DID respect electoral results whereas the opposition did not, conveniently forgetting how elected opposition officials are deprived of as many means as possible from exerting their role. For example, Ledezma election 5 years ago for Caracas at large mayor was followed by the immediate approval of a law that gutted his office, passing most of his responsibilities, and patronage, to an appointed official. For example, Capriles difficult reelection in December 2012 was followed by the immediate appointment of the losing chavista, Jaua, at the head of a para-governing organization which has for Miranda state a budget that compares favorably with the one Capriles receives. One can only be flabbergasted in front of such cynical lies.
Another good moment must have been when Rafael Ramirez stated that the economical model of the regime was successful. With 60% inflation, humongous foreign debts, importing maybe 75% of our food, having stopped the publication of verifiable statistics, a decrease in oil production, and what not, the guy has the chutzpah to declare victory.
All of this simply reveal in a dramatic way that chavismo is a cornered system, self-locked in an series of cliches and dead ideologies. I wonder even if their speech is a monologue, seems rather a litany. How can you reach with them a basic vocabulary and grammar to attempt a dialogue?
The dialogue
From what I read the presentation of the opposition envoys were over all much better than the regime's one, if anything by showing that apparently the opposition is more knowledgeable on dossiers and country's problem than the regime trapped in a frozen mind set. It is amazing that people that have been 15 years in office seem way outpaced in delivery by an opposition that is constantly harassed and denied access to real data.
But that is not really the point. The point is that the regime pretends to have a dialogue without conditions. Whereas the opposition offers very reasonable conditions, things that in normal countries are not considered "conditions". For example it wants political prisoners to be released. The opposition does not mind them being sent to trial but wants them to be judged in liberty until a sentence comes, like it happens to the very few corrupt and abusive chavistas that have to be sent to trial. Another request is that the constitution is followed. That means in practical term that it is not possible that the high court of 32 members has never a dissent opinion. That means that the offices of comptroller of the nation is given to someone that actually will control the expenses of ALL elected officials, be them chavista or opposition. And other such examples.
What does chavismo want? That opposition ceases all type of protests, recognize the primacy and mandatory line for Venezuela organization even if last April 2013 there was a an electoral fraud to hide that chavismo had lost a majority of the vote. The government has all and wants things to stay that way. Is dialogue, any type of dialogue and agreement a possibility?
The guarimbalogue
In the face of the stubbornness of the regime, of its inability to find solutions to the problems of Venezuela what is left to do? Little but not hopeless.
We must participate in the discussion tables that the UNASUR wants to set but we should be firm as we have been in this first round. And the protest must continue non stop, even if violent barricades, guarimbas, are a nasty byproduct. After all, that the regime has been forced to accept such a pantomime is a success for guarimbas, no matter how these have been criticized, even by Capriles. In fact, if Capriles last night was able to present a reasonable survey of the situation in a cadena, it is because guarimbas allowed for it, with the inherent contradictions that not only he could not control them, but he criticized them.
Last night we had a guarimbalogue, we had a mandatory cadena where for the first time in a decade it was possible for some chavistas to discover that the opposition existed, that it was not a figment of their imagination, that it was more articulated than their own leaders, that it went beyond guarimbas and that it had forced the regime in that admission. Just by itself it vindicated two months of protests and sufferings.
If you do not understand or agree with what I just wrote in the last paragraph let me give you the following image. We are always told never to pull a thread from a hand knitted sweater because the whole thing may just fall apart. This is exactly what may have happened last night to chavismo. This one is a monstrous knitted coalition that includes narco traffickers, big time corrupts, incompetent people that have a job only because they are chavistas, resentful leftists, taliban ones, pro Cuba agents, ambitious military and what not. It is sort of a sweater with horrifying patterns. Last night may have been the thread that if pulled adequately, for long enough, may end up unraveling the whole thing.
But I am not holding my breath.
-------------------
UPDATE.
Reading the press this Saturday morning as to last Thursday night show I find a certain contentment within the opposition OpEdistia. I would not be so sanguine.
True, it was a major achievement for the opposition and that presentation maybe the beginning of something. But there is one thing that we should not forget: chavismo mind dose not work like hers and for them the "failure" may actually be a good thing. Let me explain.
Chavismo is that ugly sweater described above, and as such it is composed of mostly failures led by mediocrities. What allowed them so much power was a demagogic language, their willingness to waste the country's wealth instead of investing it, and a hateful leader who unfortunately knew how to reach for the heart and fears of an uneducated mass. It is/was an historical accident made possible by self sufficiency of a decadent political class.
The failure Thursday night of the chavista representative to go out of the written script of resentment and ideology may actually be good for the regime. You need to understand that dictatorship are by definition the rule of a minority over a majority through the use of brute force. As such, the regime reminded the minority that supports them that they need to stick with them otherwise in a post chavista world that would value again education, skills, competence, effort, social restraint, rule of law, they will be relegated again to the bottom of the scale as long as they refuse to play by the rules of civilized society. The contrast between the representatives of the regime and those of the opposition crudely reminded them that only by supporting vile mediocrities like Diosdado Cabello will the chavismo core retain its privileges.
Through this comment I do not mean to state that dialogue is worthy or a waste of time, that the opposition will gain more or less than the regime, just point out that sitting at a table for a few hours is only the beginning of a process of unpredictable consequences.....
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
Comunicado de la MUD sobre las elecciones anunciadas para San Cristóbal y San Diego
En el día de hoy la señora Tibisay Lucena ha anunciado que el CNE convocará a elecciones para nuevos alcaldes en San Cristóbal y San Diego. Con toda responsabilidad la Mesa de la Unidad Democrática no reconocerá dichas elecciones y hará todo cuanto esta en su poder para evitarlas.
La señora Tibisay Lucena peca de dos maneras graves en su anuncio.
Primeramente ella no es quien para llamar dichas elecciones ya que su periodo esta vencido hace un año. El CNE tal como esta compuesto hoy en día no tiene legitimidad para llamar a elección alguna mientras sus autoridades no sean renovadas según manda la constitución y las leyes. El CNE actual solo puede atender reclamos de pasadas elecciones y mantener el instrumento de trabajo. El CNE actual no puede empezar procesos electorales de alto riesgo político cuando el tiempo le ha quitado su legitimidad.
En segundo lugar la señora Lucena comete una grave intromisión política en su anuncio. Ella dice: "este CNE apoya totalmente todas las gestiones que ha hecho el Gobierno venezolano, y de todos los sectores, para acercar a esta visión donde se puedan encontrar y conseguir un espacio de paz para los venezolanos". Al resaltar al gobierno al frente de un supuesto proceso de paz ella nuevamente se parcializa a favor del gobierno. Dejando entender que nuevas elecciones en San Critóbal y San Diego puede ser vistas como una aporte a la paz de parte del CNE ella transforma el CNE en un agente político cuando su rol exclusivo es de ser un servicio requerido por las partes interesadas. Que nosotros sepamos los consejos municipales todavía no han hecho formalmente dichas peticiones al CNE ya que la manera en como sus alcaldes han sido destituidos y hechos presos no ha sido aceptada. De hecho, forzar elecciones que nadie quiere en esos municipios puede agravar la crisis que hoy en día se vive en todo el país.
La Mesa de la Unidad ratifica con el presente comunicado su desacuerdo con la decisión del TSJ en lo que considera no solamente como un acto inconstitucional de este, sino un abuso de poder la manera en la cual fueron destituidos estos alcaldes electos por un amplio voto mayoritario el pasado mes de diciembre. Recordamos al TSJ que su rol principal es de ratificar o anular sentencias, no emitirlas sin que haya existido juicio previo. Mas allá de cualquier crimen que hayan podido cometer los ciudadanos Scarano y Ceballos, ellos tienen derecho a recibir un juicio completo y no uno sumario como lo hizo el TSJ. Y sus electores también tienen derecho al respeto de su voluntad política y de saber a través de un juicio completo las faltas de sus alcaldes para ellos decidir si se justifica sea destitución, sea revocatorio, sea inhabilitación política.
En visto de lo planteado no nos es posible sino interpretar el anuncio de la señora Lucena hoy como una provocación, e incluso como un intento de justificar las acciones del TSJ afirmando que este tiene desde ahora el derecho de quitar a cualquier persona electa por el pueblo según le parezca. ¿Para que seguir teniendo un CNE si al fin y al cabo el trabajo de los representantes del pueblo solo se valida si así lo decide una corte de jueces donde no hay justicia sino devoción al poder central? ¿Para que perder tiempo en costosas elecciones?
Le recodamos a la señora Lucena que una gran parte de la crisis que hoy vive Venezuela se debe a la poca transparencia de la actuaciones del CNE cuando ella lo presidia legalmente. Sus reiteradas marcas de afecto político hacia el régimen chavista, su constante parcialidad permitiendo todo tipo de abusos por parte del gobierno en periodos electorales le han quitado credibilidad alguna en poder organizar elecciones limpias, sobre todo en medio de esta crisis. Y menos presentarse como un arbitro preocupado por la paz del país. Es muy tarde para usted, señora Lucena, la historia ya la está juzgando.
La Mesa de la Unidad Democrática no va a aceptar que se celebren elecciones para alcaldes en San Cristóbal y en San Diego mientras no se respeten los tramites constitucionales que sean aceptados por todos los actores. Utilizaremos todos los medios posibles para bloquear estas elecciones, incluso el día de las elecciones, y no reconoceremos esos resultados. Si el gobierno y sus súbditos en el CNE y el TSJ no gustan de nuestra posición le invitamos a tomar desde ya las medidas necesarias para pasar a una dictadura franca y abierta.
Pero si todavía a alguien dentro del régimen le preocupa la democracia les invitamos a realizar un referendo consultivo en San Diego y San Cristóbal sobre las acciones del TSJ. Esos sí seria un avance hacia la paz y la restauración de la democracia.
---------------------------------
Obviamente nunca leeremos un comunicado así desde la MUD donde ya deben de estar peleándose para nombrar candidatos para esas ciudades, e ir divididos y así entregárselas al chavismo. Y después Capriles lloriquea que la gente no va a votar... Si la MUD no reacciona fuertemente en contra de Tibisay ni yo iré a votar.
La señora Tibisay Lucena peca de dos maneras graves en su anuncio.
Primeramente ella no es quien para llamar dichas elecciones ya que su periodo esta vencido hace un año. El CNE tal como esta compuesto hoy en día no tiene legitimidad para llamar a elección alguna mientras sus autoridades no sean renovadas según manda la constitución y las leyes. El CNE actual solo puede atender reclamos de pasadas elecciones y mantener el instrumento de trabajo. El CNE actual no puede empezar procesos electorales de alto riesgo político cuando el tiempo le ha quitado su legitimidad.
En segundo lugar la señora Lucena comete una grave intromisión política en su anuncio. Ella dice: "este CNE apoya totalmente todas las gestiones que ha hecho el Gobierno venezolano, y de todos los sectores, para acercar a esta visión donde se puedan encontrar y conseguir un espacio de paz para los venezolanos". Al resaltar al gobierno al frente de un supuesto proceso de paz ella nuevamente se parcializa a favor del gobierno. Dejando entender que nuevas elecciones en San Critóbal y San Diego puede ser vistas como una aporte a la paz de parte del CNE ella transforma el CNE en un agente político cuando su rol exclusivo es de ser un servicio requerido por las partes interesadas. Que nosotros sepamos los consejos municipales todavía no han hecho formalmente dichas peticiones al CNE ya que la manera en como sus alcaldes han sido destituidos y hechos presos no ha sido aceptada. De hecho, forzar elecciones que nadie quiere en esos municipios puede agravar la crisis que hoy en día se vive en todo el país.
La Mesa de la Unidad ratifica con el presente comunicado su desacuerdo con la decisión del TSJ en lo que considera no solamente como un acto inconstitucional de este, sino un abuso de poder la manera en la cual fueron destituidos estos alcaldes electos por un amplio voto mayoritario el pasado mes de diciembre. Recordamos al TSJ que su rol principal es de ratificar o anular sentencias, no emitirlas sin que haya existido juicio previo. Mas allá de cualquier crimen que hayan podido cometer los ciudadanos Scarano y Ceballos, ellos tienen derecho a recibir un juicio completo y no uno sumario como lo hizo el TSJ. Y sus electores también tienen derecho al respeto de su voluntad política y de saber a través de un juicio completo las faltas de sus alcaldes para ellos decidir si se justifica sea destitución, sea revocatorio, sea inhabilitación política.
En visto de lo planteado no nos es posible sino interpretar el anuncio de la señora Lucena hoy como una provocación, e incluso como un intento de justificar las acciones del TSJ afirmando que este tiene desde ahora el derecho de quitar a cualquier persona electa por el pueblo según le parezca. ¿Para que seguir teniendo un CNE si al fin y al cabo el trabajo de los representantes del pueblo solo se valida si así lo decide una corte de jueces donde no hay justicia sino devoción al poder central? ¿Para que perder tiempo en costosas elecciones?
Le recodamos a la señora Lucena que una gran parte de la crisis que hoy vive Venezuela se debe a la poca transparencia de la actuaciones del CNE cuando ella lo presidia legalmente. Sus reiteradas marcas de afecto político hacia el régimen chavista, su constante parcialidad permitiendo todo tipo de abusos por parte del gobierno en periodos electorales le han quitado credibilidad alguna en poder organizar elecciones limpias, sobre todo en medio de esta crisis. Y menos presentarse como un arbitro preocupado por la paz del país. Es muy tarde para usted, señora Lucena, la historia ya la está juzgando.
La Mesa de la Unidad Democrática no va a aceptar que se celebren elecciones para alcaldes en San Cristóbal y en San Diego mientras no se respeten los tramites constitucionales que sean aceptados por todos los actores. Utilizaremos todos los medios posibles para bloquear estas elecciones, incluso el día de las elecciones, y no reconoceremos esos resultados. Si el gobierno y sus súbditos en el CNE y el TSJ no gustan de nuestra posición le invitamos a tomar desde ya las medidas necesarias para pasar a una dictadura franca y abierta.
Pero si todavía a alguien dentro del régimen le preocupa la democracia les invitamos a realizar un referendo consultivo en San Diego y San Cristóbal sobre las acciones del TSJ. Esos sí seria un avance hacia la paz y la restauración de la democracia.
---------------------------------
Obviamente nunca leeremos un comunicado así desde la MUD donde ya deben de estar peleándose para nombrar candidatos para esas ciudades, e ir divididos y así entregárselas al chavismo. Y después Capriles lloriquea que la gente no va a votar... Si la MUD no reacciona fuertemente en contra de Tibisay ni yo iré a votar.
Monday, April 7, 2014
Monday blues on a blackmailed Venezuela
In the wee hours Saturday morning the Nazional Guard and Nazional Police decided to attack the barricades in Caurimare. As a consequence there has been a locking up of streets all around the area from Chuao to Macaracuay, throwing quite a lot of distress in my plans to take care of the sick. Since I am trapped and forced to think a little I though that it may be a good time to consider at where is the country standing at.
The first thing that we may want to observe is that the assault of the Caurimare barricades was absolutely unnecessary. The area votes 80% against chavismo, at least. As such it is the opposition voter that is mostly inconvenienced. But then again, some of the corrupt boligarchs that reside in the area may start getting tired of the hours of traffic it takes to go around Caurimare. If a case can be made against the repeated attacks on Altamira, no solid case can be made by the regime to invest political capital in an area where the only thing that will happen is to radicalize it even further.
There is only one explanation and that is that the regime needs to keep up the provocations, that the regime does not want any dialogue, that the regime is working hard at creating excuses to crack down. And the pattern is there for those who want to see it. Let' look at a telling example last week: the mockery the regime did of the UNASUR suggestion to take a harder look at human rights abuses as a way to try to prime up the pump of dialogue. I have put on the right a table describing the composition of the commission and the description of some of the newly created commission members. Truly such a commission will only work at excusing the regime's action and put blame as much much as possible on the opposition. this one should not even bother answering an invitation for an eventual seat.
This is a plain mockery of international advice and it speaks volumes of the mindset behind army barracks and the walls of Miraflores Palace.
It is crystal clear that the regime has no intention to establish a serious dialogue with the half or more of the country that opposes it. The only way to reach a durable peace in Venezuela is to start acknowledging the existence and rights of all, to create an institutional frame work that does not depend of the power in place and that is there to serve ALL citizens equally. You know, banalities like an independent judicial system or an electoral system that does not actively promote the regime.
Besides creating that absolutely useless commission, the regime demands that the opposition seats to dialogue without preconditions when the regime holds ALL in the country; the regime calls for dialogue while it strips mayors illegally of their mandate; and worse, removes a Representative just because the Orwellian Pig of Cabello said so. These are provocations deliberately scheduled all along every week for the past two months.
And yet the regime still balks at making this an absolute dictatorship by arresting, say, Capriles, or calling a state of exception to allow the army to break down the protests. This is of course a dangerous strategy because an incident could happen that could push forward these events without giving time to the regime to have damage control ready.
So why is the regime walking such a tight rope when all recent polls show that the regime is not benefiting from this strategy (while it is not clear the opposition is).
There are several reasons, I think, that push to constant provocations..
One is that some are trying to gain time while they prepare their withdrawal. Cuba exploitation of Venezuela could be in such a group. Some corrupts are also in that group while they straighten their affairs and launder enough cash to live comfortably in exile. Provocations hide these maneuvers while offering a possible excuse to run away from the country when they decide to kick out Maduro.
Another is that people dealing and wasting away discussing provocations are not discussing food scarcity, lack of jobs and what not.
There may be other reasons but the one that explains better everything is that too many in the country are not dealing with Maduro, Cabello and the associated combo as they should be leading with: they should be dealing with them for what they are, a delinquent organization. Rules of engagement are not the same when you need to deal with these people. Chavismo in office, like any gangster group, lacks understanding of the notions of democracy, rights, ethics, change, etc... Chavista like Cabello think that there is nothing wrong in the way they made their obscene amount of wealth. Money looted away from the state is no crime because it belonged to all, and thus belonged to no one.
Sunday Milagros Socorro wrote her last article for El Nacional and in it she has choice terms for those in the regime. One I liked in particular:
It sounds much better in Spanish but you get the idea.
This is our true problem, we are into the hands of a gangster group that is looting the country while at the same time making it a narco state. Hence the constant provocation to try to create some form of blackmail that will allow the regime to hold us all in place, or safely exit, whichever comes first.
The first thing that we may want to observe is that the assault of the Caurimare barricades was absolutely unnecessary. The area votes 80% against chavismo, at least. As such it is the opposition voter that is mostly inconvenienced. But then again, some of the corrupt boligarchs that reside in the area may start getting tired of the hours of traffic it takes to go around Caurimare. If a case can be made against the repeated attacks on Altamira, no solid case can be made by the regime to invest political capital in an area where the only thing that will happen is to radicalize it even further.
There is only one explanation and that is that the regime needs to keep up the provocations, that the regime does not want any dialogue, that the regime is working hard at creating excuses to crack down. And the pattern is there for those who want to see it. Let' look at a telling example last week: the mockery the regime did of the UNASUR suggestion to take a harder look at human rights abuses as a way to try to prime up the pump of dialogue. I have put on the right a table describing the composition of the commission and the description of some of the newly created commission members. Truly such a commission will only work at excusing the regime's action and put blame as much much as possible on the opposition. this one should not even bother answering an invitation for an eventual seat.
This is a plain mockery of international advice and it speaks volumes of the mindset behind army barracks and the walls of Miraflores Palace.
It is crystal clear that the regime has no intention to establish a serious dialogue with the half or more of the country that opposes it. The only way to reach a durable peace in Venezuela is to start acknowledging the existence and rights of all, to create an institutional frame work that does not depend of the power in place and that is there to serve ALL citizens equally. You know, banalities like an independent judicial system or an electoral system that does not actively promote the regime.
Besides creating that absolutely useless commission, the regime demands that the opposition seats to dialogue without preconditions when the regime holds ALL in the country; the regime calls for dialogue while it strips mayors illegally of their mandate; and worse, removes a Representative just because the Orwellian Pig of Cabello said so. These are provocations deliberately scheduled all along every week for the past two months.
And yet the regime still balks at making this an absolute dictatorship by arresting, say, Capriles, or calling a state of exception to allow the army to break down the protests. This is of course a dangerous strategy because an incident could happen that could push forward these events without giving time to the regime to have damage control ready.
So why is the regime walking such a tight rope when all recent polls show that the regime is not benefiting from this strategy (while it is not clear the opposition is).
There are several reasons, I think, that push to constant provocations..
One is that some are trying to gain time while they prepare their withdrawal. Cuba exploitation of Venezuela could be in such a group. Some corrupts are also in that group while they straighten their affairs and launder enough cash to live comfortably in exile. Provocations hide these maneuvers while offering a possible excuse to run away from the country when they decide to kick out Maduro.
Another is that people dealing and wasting away discussing provocations are not discussing food scarcity, lack of jobs and what not.
There may be other reasons but the one that explains better everything is that too many in the country are not dealing with Maduro, Cabello and the associated combo as they should be leading with: they should be dealing with them for what they are, a delinquent organization. Rules of engagement are not the same when you need to deal with these people. Chavismo in office, like any gangster group, lacks understanding of the notions of democracy, rights, ethics, change, etc... Chavista like Cabello think that there is nothing wrong in the way they made their obscene amount of wealth. Money looted away from the state is no crime because it belonged to all, and thus belonged to no one.
Sunday Milagros Socorro wrote her last article for El Nacional and in it she has choice terms for those in the regime. One I liked in particular:
Ya hemos dicho también que, para tener preeminencia en el chavismo, es preciso brindarse al sacrificio ético: si quieres hincarle el colmillo a la entraña palpitante de Venezuela, debes ponerte en cuatro patas y ofrecer el espinazo moral para que te lo partan. Solo así podrás participar del banquete que desmedra a la patria.
We have also said that to reach the top echelons of chavismo it is necessary to toast to the sacrifice of ethics: if you want to bite deeply into the palpitating core of Venezuela, you need to get first on your four and offer your moral backbone so that they may break it. Only thus you will be able to participate into the feast that is destroying the country.
It sounds much better in Spanish but you get the idea.
This is our true problem, we are into the hands of a gangster group that is looting the country while at the same time making it a narco state. Hence the constant provocation to try to create some form of blackmail that will allow the regime to hold us all in place, or safely exit, whichever comes first.
Sunday, April 6, 2014
El facilismo intelectual de Carlos Raúl Hernández
Hay un artículo de opinión en El Universal de hoy que quisiera comentar de manera breve. Se trata de un escrito de Carlos Raúl Hernández donde lo que choca es un facilismo intelectual para evitar sus responsabilidades, algo mas bien indigno del momento que vivimos.
Si bien es cierto que "la salida" era riesgosa y improvisada, también es cierto que no había ningún plan político atendiendo seriamente las quejas de una gran parte del país. Solo en política el vacío conduce a generación espontanea de materia.
Es impresionante como Hernández trata de ridiculizar los proponentes de "la Salida" porque aparentemente él sufrió en carne propia un ataque tuiteresco de gente a quien él no le cae bien. O algún resentimiento de ese tipo. Leemos cosas que le habrían dicho como:
Hernández acierta en algunas cosas pero por mas que acierte no puede esconder su parte de culpabilidad en la debacle que el pronostica.
Existe un sector político y de opinión existencialista y algo comeflor que pretende tener un plan pero que no tiene resultados. Cuando ese sector decidió no seguir la pelea por el fraude de abril 2013 (¡hace ya un año!) se repitieron los errores de 2004 y 2010, ya que le gusta Hernández dar fechas de errores. Si hubo una abstención demoledora en diciembre de 2013, fue por eso, por la incapacidad de ese sector, al cual Hernández parece pertenecer, de reconocer sus propios errores y no entender porque la gente no va a votar. Ahora, esos tres millones que faltaron en diciembre están guarimbeando o protestando y la MUD, y Capriles, y Hernández parecen absolutamente incapaces de entenderlos, de comunicarse con ellos. Y por lo tanto aparecen oportunistas.
En vez de tener un tono fácil y burlador para eludir sus responsabilidades intelectuales, seria mejor que Hernández se dedique a explicarnos como vamos a aguantar económicamente hasta diciembre 2015, como vamos a ganar elecciones contra un gobierno que a nivel de trampa y abuso parece que va a dejar al de Chávez como un aprendiz. Después sí tendrá credibilidad para criticar a otros. El facilismo tanto en Hernández como en los de "la Salida" es lo que nos lleva adonde estamos.
Si bien es cierto que "la salida" era riesgosa y improvisada, también es cierto que no había ningún plan político atendiendo seriamente las quejas de una gran parte del país. Solo en política el vacío conduce a generación espontanea de materia.
Es impresionante como Hernández trata de ridiculizar los proponentes de "la Salida" porque aparentemente él sufrió en carne propia un ataque tuiteresco de gente a quien él no le cae bien. O algún resentimiento de ese tipo. Leemos cosas que le habrían dicho como:
"¿Cuánto te paga el gobierno? ¿Y es que crees que hay que votar con ese CNE?".O sus conclusiones autocomplacientes como:
"¿Entonces tenemos que esperar hasta 2019? ¿Qué propones tú?" (cómo si alguien que desesperado incendia su casa con la familia dentro, preguntara a los bomberos "qué propones tú").
Se repiten los errores de 2002 a 2005 y de cara a las elecciones parlamentarias de 2015, la grieta que se cerraba entre oposición y chavismo podría ensancharse. Recrudece el escepticismo entre los que no creerán en las elecciones, ni en "la calle" ni en nada. No por mucho madrugar amanece más temprano, pocas cosas peores que los ataques de histerismo político y nadie tiene derecho a arrastrar a todos a la derrota porque le vino una puntada.
Hernández acierta en algunas cosas pero por mas que acierte no puede esconder su parte de culpabilidad en la debacle que el pronostica.
Existe un sector político y de opinión existencialista y algo comeflor que pretende tener un plan pero que no tiene resultados. Cuando ese sector decidió no seguir la pelea por el fraude de abril 2013 (¡hace ya un año!) se repitieron los errores de 2004 y 2010, ya que le gusta Hernández dar fechas de errores. Si hubo una abstención demoledora en diciembre de 2013, fue por eso, por la incapacidad de ese sector, al cual Hernández parece pertenecer, de reconocer sus propios errores y no entender porque la gente no va a votar. Ahora, esos tres millones que faltaron en diciembre están guarimbeando o protestando y la MUD, y Capriles, y Hernández parecen absolutamente incapaces de entenderlos, de comunicarse con ellos. Y por lo tanto aparecen oportunistas.
En vez de tener un tono fácil y burlador para eludir sus responsabilidades intelectuales, seria mejor que Hernández se dedique a explicarnos como vamos a aguantar económicamente hasta diciembre 2015, como vamos a ganar elecciones contra un gobierno que a nivel de trampa y abuso parece que va a dejar al de Chávez como un aprendiz. Después sí tendrá credibilidad para criticar a otros. El facilismo tanto en Hernández como en los de "la Salida" es lo que nos lleva adonde estamos.
Carta abierta a la ministra Meléndez, a la FANB y a la FAN
Señora ministra.
Hace unas semanas había leído con mucho interés su defensa de la GNB y del ejercito en El Nacional, EL Universal y VTV. También en AVN para que no digan que no me informo. Permítame hacer unos comentarios.
Primero, usted debería empezar por botar a quien sea que la esta asesorando porque esa persona no sirve. Para que esa persona le haga hacer hincapié sobre las bajas y heridos de la GNB cuando el otro lado reclama números 10 veces mas altos es una torpeza.
Segundo, usted metió la pata diciendo que ustedes no reprimen cuando hay ya docenas y docenas de vídeos y fotos que atestiguan de lo contrario. Uno hubiese esperado por lo menos algo así "Nosotros no reprimimos aunque a veces algunos componentes se excedan". Una cortesía, digamos, a las victimas.
Pero el asunto no es este. El asunto es que usted no tiene idea de lo desprestigiadas que están las fuerzas armadas en Venezuela. Por mas saraos que hagan para tratar de levantar al autoestima, por mas que se automojoneen, el hecho es que ustedes generan pavor y rechazo, además de pena ajena.
Es por eso que en el encabezado diferencio la carta a su nombre y al de las FANB y FAN. Las FANB son ahora en la mente de todos, exceptuando tal vez algún chavista que no ha tenido un pensamiento propio en una década, una sarta de abusadores corruptos. Si dentro del chavismo todavía hay quienes los alaban, no se engañe: ellos están buscando lo suyo. Todos hemos sidos matraqueados por la Guardia en las carreteras. Todos lo empresarios que importan han sido matraqueados de una forma o otra en los puertos por personal de la guardia o de las FANB. Y los que no manejan ni importan han visto, por ejemplo, en las distribuciones de Mercal y otras dádivas como los militares presente los manosean, chantajean, dan prioridad a amigotes, se llevan su tajada primero, etc. etc.
Aquí en Venezuela hoy el que dice que le gusta las FANB es porque tiene un amigote adentro que le manda su tajada. Punto.
Y ni empiezo con todos los reportes internacionales sobre la asociación con el narco trafico de los de verde para cobrar verdes. Me conformo en recordar que en Maiquetía todavía estamos esperando saber quien fue el militarote pesado que llenó el avión de Air France con docenas de maletas de droga. Esa esta más que suelto por allí y todos lo saben.
También me dirijo a las FAN, entendiendo por ese termino los que están con uniforme pero que posiblemente no sean tan corruptos, algo más "institucionales" digamos. Aunque poco me fió de ellos. Me acuerdo durante el plan Bolívar 2000 cuantas filtraciones habían de los latrocinios militares. Hasta Cruz Weffer tuvo que ir a la corte aunque ahora creo que está lirondo de penas por allí. Pues bien, ya no hay mas esas filtraciones, sino uno que otro chisme via Bocaranda. ¿Que pasó? ¿Perdieron la moral también? ¿Roban menos y por eso se sienten como inocentes y se callan?
Me permito decirle todo esto porque quiero que usted entienda perfectamente que nadie serio en la oposición quiere un golpe militar. Primero, ya estamos en una dictadura militar donde usted, FANB y FAN hacen los que le da la gana. Y mal, pero eso es otro asunto. Estoy convencido que no existen suficiente militares decentes para que puedan dar un golpe que no sea uno de los tres golpes bañados con el de 18.
También aprovecho la oportunidad par a decirle que si los EEUU hubiesen querido invadir a Venezuela lo hubiesen hecho hace añales. Ellos no le van a tener miedo a generalotes gordos, corruptos e incompetentes. Ni a almirantas cada día mas histéricas. La verdad es que ellos no nos respetan por dejar que gente como usted se quede tanto tiempo en el poder. No van a hacer nada, nosotros nos buscamos ese peo y nosotros nos lo vamos a tener que resolver. Así que por favor absténgase de decir sandeces como esta "Vienen cumpliendo un plan injerencista que viene desde afuera". La verdad es que estamos hartos de la manera como se ha manejado el país en estos últimos años y de la cual usted y su combo tiene una grandísima culpa que la historia sabrá cobrarle aunque sea en libros. No necesitamos a absolutamente nadie que nos motive a echar a sus caras el desprecio que sentimos hacia ustedes.
No es a Maduro que queremos fuera, es un sistema que ustedes alcahuetean. Sépalo de una buena vez y deje de chillar: el ejercito podrido que usted representa no lo queremos.
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| El puñito de la amenaza |
Primero, usted debería empezar por botar a quien sea que la esta asesorando porque esa persona no sirve. Para que esa persona le haga hacer hincapié sobre las bajas y heridos de la GNB cuando el otro lado reclama números 10 veces mas altos es una torpeza.
Segundo, usted metió la pata diciendo que ustedes no reprimen cuando hay ya docenas y docenas de vídeos y fotos que atestiguan de lo contrario. Uno hubiese esperado por lo menos algo así "Nosotros no reprimimos aunque a veces algunos componentes se excedan". Una cortesía, digamos, a las victimas.
Pero el asunto no es este. El asunto es que usted no tiene idea de lo desprestigiadas que están las fuerzas armadas en Venezuela. Por mas saraos que hagan para tratar de levantar al autoestima, por mas que se automojoneen, el hecho es que ustedes generan pavor y rechazo, además de pena ajena.
Es por eso que en el encabezado diferencio la carta a su nombre y al de las FANB y FAN. Las FANB son ahora en la mente de todos, exceptuando tal vez algún chavista que no ha tenido un pensamiento propio en una década, una sarta de abusadores corruptos. Si dentro del chavismo todavía hay quienes los alaban, no se engañe: ellos están buscando lo suyo. Todos hemos sidos matraqueados por la Guardia en las carreteras. Todos lo empresarios que importan han sido matraqueados de una forma o otra en los puertos por personal de la guardia o de las FANB. Y los que no manejan ni importan han visto, por ejemplo, en las distribuciones de Mercal y otras dádivas como los militares presente los manosean, chantajean, dan prioridad a amigotes, se llevan su tajada primero, etc. etc.
Aquí en Venezuela hoy el que dice que le gusta las FANB es porque tiene un amigote adentro que le manda su tajada. Punto.
Y ni empiezo con todos los reportes internacionales sobre la asociación con el narco trafico de los de verde para cobrar verdes. Me conformo en recordar que en Maiquetía todavía estamos esperando saber quien fue el militarote pesado que llenó el avión de Air France con docenas de maletas de droga. Esa esta más que suelto por allí y todos lo saben.
También me dirijo a las FAN, entendiendo por ese termino los que están con uniforme pero que posiblemente no sean tan corruptos, algo más "institucionales" digamos. Aunque poco me fió de ellos. Me acuerdo durante el plan Bolívar 2000 cuantas filtraciones habían de los latrocinios militares. Hasta Cruz Weffer tuvo que ir a la corte aunque ahora creo que está lirondo de penas por allí. Pues bien, ya no hay mas esas filtraciones, sino uno que otro chisme via Bocaranda. ¿Que pasó? ¿Perdieron la moral también? ¿Roban menos y por eso se sienten como inocentes y se callan?
Me permito decirle todo esto porque quiero que usted entienda perfectamente que nadie serio en la oposición quiere un golpe militar. Primero, ya estamos en una dictadura militar donde usted, FANB y FAN hacen los que le da la gana. Y mal, pero eso es otro asunto. Estoy convencido que no existen suficiente militares decentes para que puedan dar un golpe que no sea uno de los tres golpes bañados con el de 18.
También aprovecho la oportunidad par a decirle que si los EEUU hubiesen querido invadir a Venezuela lo hubiesen hecho hace añales. Ellos no le van a tener miedo a generalotes gordos, corruptos e incompetentes. Ni a almirantas cada día mas histéricas. La verdad es que ellos no nos respetan por dejar que gente como usted se quede tanto tiempo en el poder. No van a hacer nada, nosotros nos buscamos ese peo y nosotros nos lo vamos a tener que resolver. Así que por favor absténgase de decir sandeces como esta "Vienen cumpliendo un plan injerencista que viene desde afuera". La verdad es que estamos hartos de la manera como se ha manejado el país en estos últimos años y de la cual usted y su combo tiene una grandísima culpa que la historia sabrá cobrarle aunque sea en libros. No necesitamos a absolutamente nadie que nos motive a echar a sus caras el desprecio que sentimos hacia ustedes.
No es a Maduro que queremos fuera, es un sistema que ustedes alcahuetean. Sépalo de una buena vez y deje de chillar: el ejercito podrido que usted representa no lo queremos.
Thursday, April 3, 2014
Announcement
Dear readers.
I am going to be forced to cover less Venezuela events in the next crucial days, and with less details. My S.O. of 15 years has a cancer that may be terminal and we only found out late February. That would explain all the health problems he has had since last October. It also explains why I am in Caracas for now over a month.
Dealing with the current situation in Venezuela, seeing from close all the failures in the health system would give material for a book. But I do not have much time to write. Nor do I have the emotional stamina to write about it.
I will keep writing in the blog as it is a way to keep my mind off my personal situation. After all, some hospitals do have WiFi, you know... But it will be irregular, from ten posts in a day to a week silence.
I am going to be forced to cover less Venezuela events in the next crucial days, and with less details. My S.O. of 15 years has a cancer that may be terminal and we only found out late February. That would explain all the health problems he has had since last October. It also explains why I am in Caracas for now over a month.
Dealing with the current situation in Venezuela, seeing from close all the failures in the health system would give material for a book. But I do not have much time to write. Nor do I have the emotional stamina to write about it.
I will keep writing in the blog as it is a way to keep my mind off my personal situation. After all, some hospitals do have WiFi, you know... But it will be irregular, from ten posts in a day to a week silence.
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