Aveledo resigns as chair of MUD: my heartfelt thanks for his hard work

No break even for lunch. Turning on I learn that Ramon Guillermo Aveledo has resigned his chair at the head of the MUD.


Of course from twitter we get everything from praise the lord, about time, to fewer thanks for a job well done. I am in the later sets even though in past months Aveledo had more misses than hits.

For those late in the game, Aveledo was the umpire in the opposition alliance in the MUD. As such his role was to shepherd a coalition of democratic groups that shared a profound alienation to the anti democratic nature of Chavez and the regime that succeeded him. Unfortunately that was all that the coalition shared, as Fausto Maso happens to point out yesterday in El Nacional, having the merit to state clearly what we all know that one thing is to be anti chavista and another not to have an inner chavista.

As a consequence of its nature the MUD and its candidates could not offer a clear cut program of changes for the country. That worked up to a point as long as Chavez was alive since the fight there was more about personality and abuse rather than development theories. And thus integrity and opportunism could coexist inside the MUD. But Chavez gone this coexistence was not possible anymore. On one side there were people with convictions and the willingness to stand for them. On the other those who thought that it was all a matter of time and that it was enough to slowly recover the disgruntled chavista vote. Faced with a frontal thugocracy the differences deepened.

Aveledo is a man of democratic convictions and substantial negotiating skills. That served him well when the opposition recovered and grew to become a majority in April 2013. We shall ever be grateful for his brilliant role until then.  But that victory was also the beginning of the end of the Aveledo system. With a Capriles that was in the ranks of the opportunists and the bulk of the MUD wondering whether it was worth taking over government considering the crisis ahead, I think that Aveledo started overruling his convictions to appear more like a compromiser. As such all decided to accept the electoral fraud of April 2013 that became unassailable after the political mistakes at the root of the December 2013 local elections setbacks. Thus the MUD became unmanageable as conviction and opportunity could not coexist anymore under the directing wand of Aveledo.

Even though Aveledo strikes some rather undignified notes in his resignation speech, his departure had become inevitable as the radical opposition was on the verge of breaking away, sinking the chances for all. But it is also my opinion that the Capriles/Aveledo model has run its course and that after 3 electoral set backs in a row, no matter how nicely worded the notice is and no matter the positive signs coming along, the model was exhausted, the label of loser inescapable.

It is unavoidable: the opposition needs to have its unitary model evolve and needs to adopt some clear positions behind which all will stand. The time of love and kisses is gone, whether we chose to accept it. The paradox is that the slow but certain sinking of chavismo may allow the opposition to split and solve its difference though internal elections without major damage. Capriles and Aveledo, deservedly or not, had started to be seen as an obstruction.

Now we can just hope that after the democratic example of Aveledo withdrawal of the front line (he will remain inside the MUD) that people much more destructive than Aveledo ever was will take heed and do the same. You know who you are Ramos Allup and Ramon Jose Medina.

The Venezuelan narco-state kicks open its closet door

Long time readers of this blog know it: Venezuela suffers under a dictatorship where drug traffic has played a major role, promoting corruption and the over all break up of the constitutional state. Yet, as long as Chavez was alive a fiction of democracy was maintained, a fiction where someone that was not a direct drug dealer was in charge. This week end events about how the Venezuelan regime used some of the worst thuggish ways to get back one of its capo taken away in Aruba prove beyond doubt that we are not into dissimulation anymore, this is an out and proud narco-state.

This post is not a translation of the preceding one even though the title are the same. Instead let's do an exercise in how to define a narcostate. Indeed, we are past the labels of XXI century fascism, neo-totalitarian or dictatorship regime. A narco-state requires an additional set of descriptions.


Historically in the Americas Venezuela may be the second official narco-state, the first one having been Panama under Noriega. We must note that heavy drug traffic influence in politics does not make a country a narco-state. For example the rule of law, as weak as that one may be, still holds sway in Mexico, Colombia, and even Honduras to name some of the potential candidates. A narco-state is the one where the upper hand in decision making is to protect drug traffic and its personnel. That does not mean traffickers rule directly: they are too busy making money to partake in the day to day matters of state. Their objective is that this state does not trouble their system, besides the occasional drug catch to quiet down international outrage, something duly taken as normal loss/expenses in accounting.

There is also a difference between narco-states in the Americas and those in Asia. There greed was the basic drive in Asia, though opium was used against imperial China. In the Americas greed is supplemented by anti US, or even anti Occidental values. The radical left here has embraced drug traffic as a way to get at the United States. And they have been helped along by the Cuban regime of the criminal Castro brothers. The longest tyranny in the Americas has been the one in Cuba which has offered haven for all sorts of defeated guerrillas and narco-guerrillas on the run. Including hiding the booty as long as the Castros got a take. The poster group has been the Colombian FARC who know pushes the chutzpah at negotiating a supposed peace deal with the Colombian government from Havana itself.

With the arrival of Chavez in Venezuela the Castro got the ideal student. A military coup monger, an abundant hot air producer, sitting on an oil stash that allowed a fake populist democracy, there was no need to rely on the unpalatable drugs for political financing. Unfortunately Chavez hanging around the FARC and harboring Bolivarian continental delirium brought inside Venezuela drug traffic. First to help the FARC and then as a bona fide local business where the Venezuelan armed forces took the lion's share.

It is too early to know when the transit to narco-state caught on in earnest. I personally think it started before Chavez was reelected in 2006. And it sped up fast after that. In 2007 a constitutional referendum that failed was designed to put all power into the hands of Chavez, making controls irrelevant. But that failure just postponed the changes through unconstitutional laws. By the time a dying Chavez was reelected in 2012 Venezuela had ceased to be a democracy. This blog is one of the many witnesses.

The narco-state was set up officially during Chavez agony. His death led to an open constitutional violation to seat Maduro as the heir, followed by the first outright open electoral cheating, when it was possible to document, for example, that the dead voted.  Since then the struggle inside chavismo to control the level of powers have included drug traffickers among one or more of the factions in the struggle.

And last weekend, when we saw to which extend the regime would go to rescue one of its capo we knew finally that the narco-state was here, that the drug traffickers had won the game, that whomever would control the country would do so at the sufferance of the narco-folks. The narco-state was out and proud as it humiliated poor little Aruba, brought speedily the Netherlands to its knees and splashed egg on the US face. Just as your average thug neighborhood dealer would do if you crossed them even by accident.

So, what are the Venezuelan narco-state drivers?

First, it rules in the middle of anarchy and lawlessness. Venezuela is in chaos. Now you can even smuggle a ton of cocaine in a commercial flight without anyone of importance in Venezuela going to jail. Simply put, if you witness a drug deal, do not bother reporting it: nothing will come of it, or worse, you could become a victim yourself.

Second, the economic situation is of little concern. Drug traffickers work in dollars and euros. As long as they have the manpower to do their deeds they cannot care less about inflation and scarcity: they dollars will always buy what they need. Hence why the regime prefers to spend its time in internal struggle rather than tackle the economy: drug traffickers believe in circus above bread.

Third, it does not promote a particular ideology except the one needed to justify the front men in office. Chavez may have been a Marxist wanna-be, the ones who rule today are the military branch that allied to Cuba and got rich though corruption and/or drug traffic. There is no ideology in the army, just pretend loyalty. This fits perfectly with the methods of narco-mafias which require loyalty above all to ensure the deliveries are done as planned. Fascism is what comes the closest.

Fourth, it needs enemies, real or imaginary. That is a must to support not only a dictatorship but also a narco-state who is after all of criminal and immoral nature. An excuse is needed. Chavismo has offered plenty of enemies, from Colombia's Uribe to the Empire not forgetting the leftist antisemitism that has been comprehensively written upon by Daniel Hannan yesterday in The Telegraph yesterday, of which this blog has been honored with one of the few links used to strengthen the point made; giving me quite a lot of traffic.

I suppose that I could come up with a few more points but these four one say it all by themselves.

The real question now is what will the world do about it. In Venezuela the bulk of the opposition has proven not to have will and/or the ability to fight back. Few have principles and are willing to stand for them. Little support do they get.

Will the world listen or are we going towards a new wave of appeasement?

La narco Venezuela salió del closet/armario

Vamos a estar claros: hace mucho tiempo que los que observamos Venezuela de cerca sabíamos que su régimen era militarizado, sufriendo las consecuencias que ello implica, corrupto y narcotraficante, que es lo que hay desde las ultimas décadas del siglo XX. Antes esos regímenes traficaban en esclavos, oro, trata de blancas y otras cosas, pero desde que el norte le sacó gusto a empolvarse las fosas nasales de blanco, evolucionó el sector.

Narco-chusma: 4 en las listas de la DEA y 3
a quien le falta poco para ingresarlas

Pero al mismo tiempo que empezó el norte a drogarse, apareció en el sur una ideología anti norteamericana, o mas bien, anti valores occidentales. El objetivo de las pandillas que van de los Castro hasta el foro de Sao Paulo es minimizar a los Estados Unidos. Eliminarlo seria mejor pero para eso esperarán que la migración desde el sur haga el trabajo. Es mas, esos sistemas políticos anti norte americanos favorecen aun mas la migración.

Una herramienta clave, promocionada por los hermanos Castro, ha sido el trafico de droga a los Estados Unidos y a Europa. En su amargura de fracasados y resentidos se adueñaron de un portaaviones en el Caribe desde el cual han hecho toda clase de fechorías para tratar de destruir los valores occidentales, sin ofrecer nada a cambio. O ofertas transitorias dependientes de los caudillos o guerrillas de turno. Y mientras que sus discípulos hacían esos tráficos, los de Colombia siendo los mas aventajados alumnos, los Castro cobraban su tajada por ayudar, por guardar el botín, por recoger los heridos y esconderlos.


El sistema llego a su cenit con Hugo Chávez en Venezuela. Golpista, hablador de paja e iluso, era el candidato ideal. Ademas, sentado sobre la botija petrolera, podía crear la ilusión de democracia popular sin necesitar recaudar fondos a través del narcotráfico.  Pero eso no impidió que Venezuela se volviese un narcoestado, tal vez ya antes de la reelección de Chávez en el 2006. Sin embargo el narcoestado, el segundo de la historia después de Panamá pudo pasar agachado, por lo menos hasta la muerte de Chávez.

Pero ya en el ultimo año de Chávez las características del narco-estado no se pudieron esconder fácilmente. Las desviaciones electorales, los abusos de poder, los cambios inconstitucionales de las leyes anunciaban que un sistema político autoritario sin el menor escrúpulo iba a nacer. La puerta de ese closet, o armario como lo llaman en España, empezó a entreabrirse muerto Chávez cuando su sucesión fue asegurada a Maduro violando la constitución y haciendo una trampa electoral descarada. Sin embargo las rivalidades internas del chavismo retrasaron el gran evento. La pateada final de la puerta del closet fue la carvajalada en Aruba el fin de semana pasado.

Vamos a estar claros: no importan las circunstancias ni que tan culpable de narcotráfico sea Carvajal. Aquí lo que cuenta es que los gobernantes de Venezuela se comportaron como hampones, de esos que se hamponizaron a través del trafico de droga y peleas territoriales para la distribución. Veamos:
- amenazaron a una pobre isla indefensa con buques o quien sabe que
- gritaron como no se grita nunca en diplomacia, de esos gritos para asustar, como los malandros cuando te atacan y van a empezar a golpearte
- hicieron chantaje
- acusaron a los arubeños de corruptos (olvidándose de que cada ladrón juzga por su condición), ademas de otros insultos
- se unieron todos para salvar a uno de ellos como no había pasado nunca antes (y hubo oportunidades, desde Antonini a Isea). ¡La pandilla primero!
- pero lo peor de todo es que recibieron a Carvajal como un héroe a pesar de que tiene años en la mira acusado de todo con evidencias que saltan a la vista.

Ese recibimiento de Carvajal nos recuerda que hace ya bastantes años se viene reportando las "cortes malandras" que son retablos o oratorios o altares en donde aparecen famosos malandros o asesinos (¿o pranes ya?), al lado de Jesús o José Gregorio o Maria Lionza. Pues este fin de semana hemos observado con gran dolor que la internalización de los anti valores ha llegado a lo mas alto del poder en el estado.

A partir de ahora Venezuela es un narco estado y orgulloso de serlo. "Pride" quedo corto como vocablo. Y lo peor del caso es que parece que todos esos anti valores han penetrado profundamente al PSUV y al ejercito. Quedo claro. No hay uno que se haya rebelado en ese congreso. Que sepamos. Y me temo que no habrá porque 15 años de practica de odio y anti-valores dejan cerebros calcinados.

Carvajal 1, Welfare State 0, US of A offside, El Nacional -1

So, as I was afraid, Carvajal was released, and faster than I expected.  I must confess that for a while I thought the Dutch would be firmer, and at least negotiate something solid back for them. Why, the infamous plane blasting would have put enough outrage in its leaders to show resolve! And yet in my first two entries on the subject I was careful to note that there was still a stretch to see Carvajal rot in an US jail.

The Netherlands King visits the naked emperor of chavismo

But the Dutch are the Dutch, they are not principled like Scandinavians, they are not reckless like Latins. Business is ALWAYS business with them, nothing personal. At home they are paragon of civic attitudes and virtue. They will save Anne Frank while in Indonesia the natives did not miss them when the Japanese invaded. In the end they lost both but that is another story.

And let's face it, why would the Netherlands go to war with Venezuela over Aruba? Over what looks now like a botched DEA job? Did they not send Willem and Maxima to see Maduro last November? The only European head of states in a long time willing to breathe the foul air of Caracas.....


There is a reason why countries are not ready to take definite stands against thugs like Venezuela or Putin: too many economic interests put together with real expensive welfare state systems. Welfare systems are sustained in large part on the big amount of taxes companies like Shell pay the Dutch treasury: company taxes, income taxes from its employees, sales taxes from Shell's products sold in the Netherlands, and local taxes here and there. I do not know what is the extent of Shell or other Dutch companies exposure in Venezuela, directly or indirectly through "associations", but it must be big to be the only European willing to send its king, and to release Carvajal so quickly.

And that is all I will blame the Dutch with: they are true to themselves and there is no point in being upset at them more than necessary. The Dutch are tough when they are in a group, very tough. But alone in front of Venezuela, because the US of A is using them instead of doing the job themselves......  here, if I am going to put most of the real blame, it is on the US of A. Sorry.

Let's discuss more interesting stuff in the second part of the post.

Chavismo is going to party hard tonight. I would not. The international backlash is there and will not be erased with a picture of Carvajal back home. The PR disaster, from bullying Aruba to defending a narco military has been read in all foreign offices and press rooms. There is no escape from that one. Not that chavistas care of PR, of course, but their travelling style will from now on be severely crimped as the US of A will not do the same mistake next time. And that, chavismo cares about.

Inside Venezuela the swift retrieval of Carvajal can only mean one thing: the military are on top. Venezuelan military may be all or some corrupt and/or narco but they have that thing about "no man left behind" though for the wrong reasons. More interestingly, the desperate push to get back Carvajal betrayed a deep seated fear in the army.

Was Carvajal that important? Yes and no. The basic case on Venezuela as a drug narco state, a terrorist supporter, is already established. There is enough evidence, enough defections already available to the US and the EU (remember Aponte Aponte, Velazquez Alvaray, Izea, and more?). Carvajal was only going to plug a few holes, bring more details. Or maybe not. What was important here was not Carvajal knowledge, but the precedent that all of these narco thugs could eventually receive just punishment.

Finally, what was this all about? A farce maybe? After all, the big loser of the day may be El Nacional which published today that Carvajal had planned to surrender to the US for a while. El Nacional needs to account fast and well for such a major misinterpretation.  Or can it do so?

The thing is that the swift, I repeat the word, retrieval of Carvajal means that not only the army has acted but also the drug traffickers, and all the thugs that could be affected. Money and means were put to serve the "cause" of Carvajal and thus maybe if he tried to surrender he may have not been able to do so....  All conspiracy theories are allowed tonight.

One thing is certain: quite a few countries "friendly" to Venezuela have discovered this week the power of drug cartels and military inside Venezuela, and that a decent opposition playing by the rules has no chances. These countries may decide to keep a blind eye on Venezuela anyway, but it will do them no good: drug traffic and militarism is an  Ebola to democracy. It is already spreading away from Venezuela, count Aruba as its new victim, an island swiftly abandoned by the countries supposed to protect it.

PS: by way, this is clearly far from over. A Pandora box has been opened. Even the Venezuelan opposition risks to pay for other people mistakes. The MUD is on record accusing Carvajal this Saturday.

Carvajal affair fallout starts: Aruba flights banned

UPDATED Well, the least we can say is that the arrest of Carvajal in Aruba Wednesday has tied in knots the Venezuelan regime the way a downing of a flight by the Russian has not affected the Dutch, the way Gaza bombings have not created retaliations against Israel (yet, for both).  For us, mere mortals, the arrest of an accused drug lord cannot compare to the victims of a plane crash or with the victims on both side of the border in the middle East; but for the rulers of Thuggistan Venezuela, arresting one of theirs is a capital offense of unspeakable proportions. While the country gets ready to go to war, flights to Aruba are already annulled and threats of all kinds are uttered by people that should know better (but probably have been designated as sort of sicko designated hitter).

Informamos a nuestra clientela que nuestros vuelos comerciales hacia Aruba, quedan cancelados a partir de hoy 25/07/2014 y hasta nuevo aviso
— Laser Airlines (@laserairlines) July 26, 2014

Tweet from Laser Airlines announcing the suspension of its flights to Aruba.


So, what is it that put the regime over the edge? Well, a judge in Aruba has decided that Hugo Carvajal will stay for the time being in Aruba, that the US has 60 days to prove conclusively its case for extradition and that the progress of the procedure will be monitored by the judge on a weekly basis, meaning that at some point the judge may decide to release Carvajal if the US does not establishes fast enough its reasons. Any normal person would find that quite reasonable. Carvajal has already his lawyers in Aruba, hired by the vice minister of Foreign Affairs designated hitter Calixto Ortega himself. Aruba is not giving him yet to the US so he has time to prove he is innocent. Etc. Etc.

The attitude of the Venezuelan regime is execrable on many levels.

First, it is bullying a small island country which depends in part on Venezuelan tourism. For a "revolutionary" government that respects the sacrosanct principle of non intervention, well, call that a miss if you want.

Second, Venezuela has never investigated ANY of the officials pointed by the US for drug traffic. In fact, Venezuela has denied it all and Maduro went as far as putting his own career on line to retrieve Carvajal, as if he were some type of Nobel Prize. That of course has never stopped Venezuela from criticizing any Senator, Secretary, Congressperson, whatever in the US that dared cast a vague doubt on the regime democratic nature.

Third, for the sake of it, since it is the US that is demanding Carvajal extradition, why is Venezuela not suspending all of its flights to the US? Just asking, you know...

Fourth, in view of the crisis Rafael Ramirez, our economy Tsarevitch, suspended a crucial trip he had scheduled in New York today to discuss refinancing Venezuela's debt. That is smart, standing up people that made all the travel to meet you in New York to see if they would loan you money...  Unless, of course, Ramirez was afraid to be arrested à la Carvajal?

Fifth, because the links between Carvajal, PDVSA and corrupt providers have also been shown today when we learned that the private plane Carvajal used to go to Aruba (chavista upper echelons do not seem to travel regular, not even in Business) was property of such corrupt PDVSA providers.

And I could probably add more.  But the case is made.

Whether Carvajal is eventually extradited to the US is not the point anymore. The anxiety expressed through the out of bonds response of Venezuelan authorities demonstrate in a crystal clear way what a gang of corrupt narco state Venezuelan regime has become. They are simply defending one of theirs, in the only ways thugs know how to defend themselves, through brutal aggression, starting verbally and going up as needed, regardless of the consequences.

The repression of student protests in February, March and April established to the world eyes that Venezuela was not a democracy, just a brutal fascist organization. Now the response to Carvajal arrest allows us to add "narco", as in Venezuela is narco fascist organization. The damage is done. Deal with it.

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UPDATED

This is too good to be true. Nothing can illustrate better the panic situation in the Miraflores panic room than this tweet announcing that Aruba flights will restart!

Informamos a nuestros clientes que la medida de suspensión de vuelos hacia Aruba ha sido levantada. Continuamos nuestras operaciones!
— Laser Airlines (@laserairlines) July 26, 2014

Though Aruba airlines decided to wait until Sunday to start again. I understand them....

I love it!

Another "Oh Dear!" moment: Hugo Carvajal is arrested in Aruba

UPDATED AGAIN. Scant reports yet, little official confirmation but it seems that indeed Hugo Carvajal has been arrested in Aruba while he was awaiting his diplomatic placet from Dutch authorities to become Venezuela's consul in Aruba. This, my friends, can be a turning moment!


Hugo Carvajal was military intelligence chief of Hugo Chavez for between 2004 and 2009. This was the period in which Chavez established his social dependency system and in which he made sure the Venezuelan army would become corrupt to the bones, compromised enough with crime that it could not easily turn against him again. Not surprisingly it was during that period that Venezuela became a full fledged narco state by becoming the main transit point for drugs, at a time where Uribe put a cramp in the FARC drug trafficking style. As a reward for his efforts the US of A placed him in its first short list of narco-criminals from Venezuela to be arrested at the first opportunity (along other celebrities like current Guarico governor, Rodriguez Chacin, nicely documented on video for his very friendly relationship with the Colombian FARC).

Now, if I were Carvajal, I would be careful about leaving the country; though admittedly my life could be in danger inside the country in case some of the drug deals I sponsored soured some. But the thugs that overlord Venezuela have quite a lot of chutzpah, thinking that if they can browbeat their way inside Venezuela, they can get away with it outside also, in particular in a little island that they think survives only out of Venezuelan tourism. Bad move. Aruba is still under the Netherlands security system and the Dutch are getting tired of Venezuela antics and blackmail (and some of its friends like, you know, Russia). Besides, Venezuelan tourism is not the best quality tourism for Aruba anyway: loud, vulgar and not anymore the big spenders they used to be. So Carvajal may or may not have been arrested last night (before his diplomatic immunity would kick in) and he may or may not have already been extradited to the US of A. These doubts are delightfully exposed in a papiamento post, that you can get if you read Spanish well enough.

If indeed Carvajal is sent to the US, beyond diplomatic implications that this will entail, the local consequences will be high. There are possibly dozens and dozens of chavista high officials with dossiers under investigation and the reality for them has suddenly changed. Never mind that if Carvajal is indeed sent to the US, he may add a lot to these dossiers.

Even if Carvajal avoids, for now, his fate in court under the pretense of his diplomatic passport, that only will mean that the intentional police departments will be bolder next time, and may directly kidnap such criminals as soon as they set foot outside of Venezuela. Tourist destination for Venezuelan corrupt and murderous officials will be limited to countries like Syria, Cuba or Russia, if they can make it without any stopover...

What will the bolivarian nomenklatura do? Seek a deal for forgiveness in exchange of surrendering power? Or lock themselves up inside fortress Venezuela? Definition time ahead, pré carré formation time.

PS: Alek Boyd, his usual speed benefiting us, just posted a summary of the descent of Venezuela into narco-state status. It is in Spanish, I hope he finds time to translate it.
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UPDATE

The Venezuelan government has confirmed the arrest of Carvajal through a strongly worded foreign ministry communique that threatens directly the Netherlands with sanctions if Carvajal is not released immediately. Nice touch! Just when The Netherlands are particularly upset with all of these goons....

SECOND UPDATE

Well, well...  The papiamento newspaper in Aruba confirms that Carvajal DID NOT have diplomatic immunity because he was not agreed yet by the Dutch. He was exercising his consul functions anyway but the placet was not coming because, we may assume, his vitae was not pleasing. I think that the Dutch delayed the placet in the vain hope that Carvajal would be withdrawn. But thugs do not take to hints like that. The Dutch got tired, and voila!

Why was Carvajal so stubbornly holding to his consul post in Aruba? Gossip emeritus Bocaranda tells us that when he was caught he carried 20,000 USD cash (what the hell is doing a consul with 20,000 cash? what could he possibly need that for? this is illegal in Venezuela), three passports with different identities (AGAIN, a consul?), something like 6 cel phones from three companies (I can understand, say, 3 since many Venezuelans do carry 1 cel from each company).

Two working hypotheses: Carvajal was dabbling in money laundering since Aruba is considered a fiscal paradise. The Dutch government got tired of the arrogance and caved in the US wises. Or he was actually sent there in a set trap from folks back in Venezuela. A third possibility is that he may have engineered that to pretend that he was arrested rather than escaped to US safety.

I think those people have become reckless and that Carvajal thought he could behave in Aruba as he pleased. So I am going for the trap set by people wanting to get rid of him inside Venezuela. The question then would become who? The last hypothesis can easily be verified: is all of Carvajal family out of Venezuela, out of reach?

Things you may not wonder about Leopoldo Lopez trial, a mere "Caracas Trial"

The real thugs/goons are not on the stand: two Nazional
Guards are not amused by this anti political prisoner
poster on the high court, TSJ, walls.

Today the long awaited trial of Leopoldo Lopez (together with 4 students that should be tried separately, if at all) has started. I am not going to bother the reader with the sordid details.

For one, we all know what the verdict will be: guilty. The only thing that remains to be seen is how long the trial will be and to which extent the regime will dare apply punishment. We already have a hint as the second session is already scheduled for August 6, and since judicial holidays are coming the third session may be pushed all the way to September. As it has been the case for all political trials (judge Afiuni anyone?) the regime loves to linger on those trials, even if it does not have the facts, even if it is an open masquerade. The point here is to inspire fear in future opponents so they await for public lynching if they dare oppose the regime. Totalitarianism of the XXI century, my friends, deal with it.

So what is left to wonder, to come to the title of this post.


The first thing, oddly, is the timing.  Since Lopez arrest 5 months ago and the alleged clear evidence one wonders why did it take so long for the regime to start the trial. Waiting for the end of guarimbas? A trial can restart them at any time. Waiting for folks to go on vacation? There are no flights out!  Expecting for scarcity problems to soften? They are not and will not for the foreseeable future. The answer is elsewhere, with the PSUV congress about to open. Some red meat thrown to the radical wing. Period, IMHO.

Another thing to wonder comes by asking the reverse question: why bother trying Lopez anyway? International pressure plays a role here, but not necessarily the way you may think. Sure enough there has been plenty of publications, the Washington Post for one pushing up the subject of Lopez dismal jail conditions. But the real deal brokers may be the people trying to organize Venezuela's financial rescue.

THEY do support Lopez, from all walks of life.

See, the Chinese of the French bank Lazard, to name some, could not care less about Leopoldo Lopez. They may even like him to stay in jail because if he were to be elected president someday he could default on debt on the grounds of corruption, grounds that Lazard and visiting Xi Jinping know very well exist. However, any "package" that creditors may agree on has already weak chances of success and they all want to increase the odds of success by the regime bringing some political peace, at least while the negotiations and agreements are reached. The problem then will not come from Lopez but from chavistas. For that we have the armed forces to use. Never mind that hanging Lopez could be a nice distraction while, say, the increase in gas price is announced, a small price for the chavista lumpen to pay for having Lopez guiltyfied (not a word but how so meaningful!).

I would like to remind readers that Latin America has abandoned the opposition totally. Can anyone point out to any recent offer of the UNASUR to mediate? Say, in the last two months? Thus Lopez is abandoned by LatAm just as the MUD did even though today a few tweets of support emerged here and there. I have in mind here in particular the infamous Colombian Santos who is starting a process of FARC incorporation into Colombian politics that not only will preclude him from helping democracy in Venezuela but may wreck Colombia within the next 5 years. But I digress.

There is also a trick question for which I have no answers, not even a conspiracy theory to offer.  Lopez dismal jail conditions have suddenly be eased this week end, just as his trial was about to finally start.  There was even a picture of him attending mass at his Ramo Verde jail, published briefly on Twitter and that may have been mere chavista propaganda (the Twitter account lasted only a few minutes apparently).  I wrote in June that Lopez was a bargaining token for Cabello, but this week events do not match my idea on how Cabello could use that token these particular days.

All this being said, stay put and worry not: Maduro has already announced that Lopez "was going to pay" and that is that. Maduro has been taking judicial decisions for years, why stop now? (1) In case you still do not get it, the trial starts with 138 "witnesses" for the prosecution and only 1, ONE, for the defense. Do the math. It is just another one of the "Caracas Trials", kind of like those in the Soviet Union in the 30ies....

Dangerous Lopez relatives awaiting permission to enter the trial.

Courageous leader showing support and who may be the next "Caracas Trial"

All pictures courtesy of Voluntad Popular.

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1) Exiled former justices like Aponte Aponte have said that meetings were held, presided by Maduro and/or his wife over the judicial heads, as to what should the coming trials and decisions be about. This when Maduro was foreign minister...  And some people thought that Maduro was a more dialogue oriented guy than Chavez...

¿Marea socialista? ¿Salto atrás? ¿Despecho rojo?

No soy PSUVologo ni pretendo serlo. Seria pésimo en eso ya que no puedo entender la mentalidad de la gente dispuesta a entregarle todo a un líder aunque este diga burradas pasmosas (capitalismo en marte, el hombre tiene 4000 años, etc...). Y aun menos cuando esa gente es abiertamente caudillista y patotera militar. Pero en fin, el domingo tuvimos "elecciones" dentro del PSUV y nos toca a nosotros, pobres libres pensadores de la oposición, tratar de entender un poco lo que pasa en ese antro del PSUV (con todo el respeto para los que están dentro el PSUV de buena fe que me sospecho no son tantos hoy en día).

Aparentemente hay dos bandos.

El primer bando es muy fácil de entender: los que ya llegaron al tope y se llenaron los bolsillos. Los vividores de siempre. Los fracasados de AD y de COPEI que por fin lograron pegarla al convertirse en chavistas y jurar que siempre fueron de corazón a la izquierda por mas a la derecha que su lambucia billetera siempre haya sido. Ellos se llenaron sea engañando a Chávez, lo que fue bien fácil debido a su egolatría, o por fin realizándose como ladrones y narcotraficantes (sobre todo los de verde oliva).  Algunos se les describe como boliburgueses, otros como funcionarios de alto nivel. Mientras más roban, más patriotas. No importa, todos se pegaron a la teta del estado y saquearon el país como ni en el siglo XIX lo saqueaban las montoneras. Ladrón es ladrón y esa gente se lee fácil.

El otro bando es mas difícil de entender para nosotros en la oposición esclarecida (que bien pocos somos, de paso). Este bando es una mezcla de radicales ideológicos y resentidos sociales. Sea lo que sea que pase en el gobierno, sea quien sea que gobierne esa gente nunca estará satisfecha: o no se aplicó la teoría como dicen los libros, o no se castigó a tutti quanti (nota: para esa gente no importa si el castigo es merecido, lo que importa es que haya castigo).

Afortunadamente para entender algo mejor ese bando "radical" tenemos dos textos recientes.

El primero es pre elecciones, el sábado pasado, una entrevista en El Universal de Gonzalo Gomez Freire, jefe en Aporrea y de Marea Socialista. Es notable ver que ese señor no tiene idea de nada en la realidad. El mundo se adapta a su visión y para él errores fatales como el "dakazo" fueron éxitos políticos que sencillamente hay que repetir. La inflación se mata bajándole el precio a todo por decreto y punto. Consecuencias no habrá porque el pueblo estará contento, los capitalistas burgueses imperialistas serán eliminados y solo quedará limpiar al gobierno de burócratas corruptos que bien sabido es son corruptos por culpa de los burgueses, porque cuando Chávez los puso donde había eran seres impolutos. Ni una pizca de "self doubt" como dicen los anglófonos.

Obviamente a gente como GGF no se le puede debatir a menos que se debata la rapidez a la cual se toman empresas y castigan empresarios. Se entiende clarísimo que GGF nunca tuvo un trabajo real, de esos con responsabilidad, en particular de esos donde hay que producir algo verdadero para poder cumplir con la nomina de los trabajadores. N.P.I. tiene ese señor sobre este asunto. ¿Para que perder tiempo? Si lo menciono es porque esta entrevista nos habla mucho de la atmósfera dentro del PSUV a horas de las elecciones a delegados, de la pelea que se estaba armando, donde el que tiene el discurso mas radical no es necesariamente el mas radical del grupo.

El segundo texto es pos electoral y nos lo da Nicmer Evans en Aporrea. Este señor se la echa de politólogo y psicólogo. Y es verdad que es de lo mejor que hay dentro del chavismo teniendo en cuenta que eso no significa calidad. Lo que sí significa, creo, es que Evans al igual de GGF nunca tuvo un trabajo de verdad, de esos donde uno se desvela pensando en como va a cumplir el viernes con la nomina de los trabajadores porque la empresa ni produjo un carajo ni vendió gratis. No es lo mismo ser empresario que ser jefe de despacho ministerial donde uno puede alegar la nomina chucuta del viernes echándole la culpa al gobierno, al ministro, a la guarimba, al imperio y quien más.

Hay que decirlo, Nicmer Evans por lo menos da en el clavo de vez en cuando. Comenta que es absurdo decir que el PSUV tiene una militancia multimillonaria. Si eso fuese cierto Capriles no sacaba ni medio millón de votos en el 2012. Por lo tanto su pieza empieza bien, emplaza dentro del PSUV a quien tiene que ser emplazado si se quiere tener algún día un partido político de verdad.

Pero la segunda parte es mas enrollada y uno no termina sabiendo si la abstención es buena o mala, si los que ganaron el domingo fueron los radicales o los lambucios. Para mi, Evans peca por hipócrita. Sea los radicales no sacaron tanto como el esperaba que ellos fuesen a sacar. O sacaron lo suficiente para poner presión sobre la cúpula podrida del gobierno pero Evans y los radicales no quieren jugar en posición adelantada. Total, ellos maniobran para que les toque algo también. Eso se adivina clarito cuando Evans menciona la trampa electoral que le hicieron a los radicales en estas elecciones internas del PSUV. El no se sulfura en demasía. ¡Mal podría! Después de todo, es esa la misma trampa electoral que le han ido aplicando a la oposición y que permite que mediocres y sinvergüenzas se encumbren. Como él, tardío abogado de la transparencia electoral. Por lo tanto mejor no grita mucho para para que no lo jodan más. Evans parece un MUDeco....

Y en este condensado esta el meollo del asunto. Los Gomez Freire y los Evans del ala izquierda del chavismo se presentan como los jacobinos puros, los que no son corruptos, los que si saben que hacer. No que hacer con la producción o la escasez. De eso no saben nada y evaden a quien mas rápido discusión concreta al respecto. Con cogerle la plata a los empresarios y a PDVSA se arreglará todo. En realidad son los mas rentistas de todos los chavistas, corruptos o no, porque son los inocentes que todavía creen que un país de 30 millones se puede manejar a realazo petrolero limpio, sin tener que pagar a nadie para que recoja la basura o siembre una papa.

Que triste para un opositor algo sensato como su servidor tener que pensar si es mejor que ganen los narco militares y sus panas corruptos o los radicales borbónicos que no han leído un periódico desde la caída del muro de Berlin. A la hora de las chiquitas ni los unos ni los otros son demócratas. Elecciones solo sirven mientras se consigue la fuerza para eliminar al otro de una buena vez.

Can Venezuelan "ruling" party PSUV avoid division?

Red tide coming?

UPDATED
I suppose that one week ago writing about the opposition MUD trying not to fall in the sinkhole was going to bring karma to hit me with writing a post about the PSUV fate. Indeed one week without writing brought me today in front of the PSUV holding internal "elections" for its political congress starting in a very few days (July 26) (1).

I am not going to go into the diatribe of obvious low electoral participation (the PSUV has only itself to blame for reporting unrealistic high membership numbers, far higher than its actual average voting record). I am not going to go into all the electoral propaganda to make the country believe these elections are meaningful (Globovision looked today like a more behaved state TV propaganda). No, the true meaning of these elections is what it is trying to hide outside of the electoral contest.

To begin with there are about 40% of safe seats in the coming up PSUV congress. That is right, not only the elections are as controlled as possible by the PSUV elite, but that elite made sure that 40% of the seats of the coming congress will be held by if not reliable, at least predictable folks. In short, the Maduro and Cabello and Ramirez wings (and military?) are certain to hold the majority against more radical elements like giordanistas and assorted folks.

I do not need to put links to all the stuff written above, a few tweets from Nicmer Evans, an "intellectual" of chavismo on its left say it all:

Equipo de Conteo Electoral Popular de Caracas: "En Ccs a las 5 pm votaron 38.521 militantes. Lo que representa el 8% del registro Psuv."
— Nicmer Evans (@NicmerEvans) July 20, 2014

Counting team in Caracas reports that 8% of registered PSUV did vote by 5PM

Cumplí con el @Psuv ahora que el partido cumpla con nosotros. 3Rs y Golpe de Timón hacia la izquierda ya! pic.twitter.com/Evc13bC2xN
— Nicmer Evans (@NicmerEvans) July 20, 2014

I fulfilled my pledge [I voted] to PSUV and now it is to the party to fulfill its pledge to us. 3R [slogan] and sharp turn to the left now!

Plus a few re-tweets of Marea Socialista, socialist tide and they kid you not.

But what is all of this theater hiding? Let me bring you two telling events this week.

The first one was the stupid declaration of Aristobulo Isturiz, Anzoategui governor. He said aloud what we all knew for years, that currency exchange controls were of a political nature and that removing them would result in a change of regime. Why would the man say such a thing at such a tense moment? The more so that the regime is trying to negotiate new loans and a modicum of economical opening? To sabotage that opening? You are not even close if you thought that.  Well, you are on the right track at least because Aristobulo is an economical ass, a radical of the worse kind, a sectarian and quite possibly a racist. But the real reason that Aristobulo threw that pearl was his counter attack at the right wing within chavismo. Giordani having been thrown out and some of the radicals being tempted by money, he needed to throw this wrench before the PSUV congress had its delegates elected.

Maduro, Falcon and the Catholic church 

Reverse your mirrors in full to look at the second event, Maduro and Henri Falcon starting a joint project to build a gigantic sanctuary to the virgin of La Pastora.  I am going to pass on the "need" to build such a gigantic monument at times like these. I will also pass on the two marxist or marxist-wanna-be or ex-marxist posing as defenders of the Catholic faith (amen of Maduro dabbling in oriental practices...). I will even pass on the need that the regime has to tend bridges to the opposition to avoid a complete collapse-cum-outright-repression down the road. No, what this means is that the regime may be looking to people like Falcon to entrust them with a future transition. After all Falcon is an ex coup monger, and ex military, an ex chavista, and never quite fit inside the opposition, always limiting his links to people (Capriles) rather than actual politics and MUD. Heck, he even recently started to create his very own version of communal councils for Lara state....

Centrifugal forces are at work within chavismo. Note that I did not even mention the army which recently was granted by the high court to behave like a political party, guns and all. But then again we have been in a military regime for quite a few years already, have we not? The point is that convoking a PSUV congress 6 months ago, as a way to distract from economical problems and street rioting may turn out to have been a very bad decision for either Maduro, or Cabello, or maybe both.

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1) That delegates are elected so close from opening time is yet an additional tool for control, to rest them from the necessary time to start forming groups, etc... In fact, even though the congress starts next Saturday newly elected candidates are summoned to Caracas next Thursday for Bolivar birthday and Chavez one... Keep them entertained least they start talking among themselves.

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UPDATE
Preliminary reports show that less than a million folks voted yesterday to elect PSUV delegates. This is certainly not good but not as bad as some inside the opposition would like us to believe. Certainly, the primaries of the opposition in 2012 drew way more people, but we were electing a presidential candidate. The PSUV base was voting for semi rigged elections to a rigged PSUV congress starting next Saturday. So there is no wonder that excitement was low, the more so that the naked objective was to ratify a regime that is not fulfilling basic needs to the chavista hoi polloi. Never mind that deep inside chavismo also knows that they have ceased to be a true majority for quite a while.

Why 1 million only? Because the 7 + million membership is overly inflated, many people registering to the PSUV in the past, forced to do so when registering for some Mision benefit,. They quickly forgot about it. It also shows that the mandatory broadcasts are not doing their job, people are not mobilized to defend the revolution in spite of a 24/24 propaganda on all state TV networks which in many areas are the only ones available.

And yet, it is low because you need to consider that people had their pinky inked and today public employees that show up without tainted fingers will be seen as not voting. And risk sanctions. Clearly, pressure on PSUV voters failed, and yet number are low.

I am daring to say that a majority of those who voted are from the radical side of chavismo, that the bureaucrats could not be bothered and that the regime knew this would be the case, hence the heavy pre electoral padding of "safe" delegates to make sure a majority will be gained. We, from the outside, will not know for sure how large a share of the vote belongs to the radicals. We will have to guess from the "congress" result. But I can tell you something, if the radicals won as little as 40% it is already a major victory for them and will be the start of chavismo division.

Can the Venezuelan opposition MUD recover?

The question is not idle: two of its "major" directors are forcing us to question thoughtfully not only whether the MUD can renew itself or if it has any strategy against the regime, but if its actually intending to fight the regime, amen of being able to understand what is going on in the country. As for its alleged leader, Capriles Radonski, by now I am afraid I am through with him.

Ramon Jose Medina cynical callousness (redundancy of sorts intended)

This happened:



In this video Ramon Jose Medina says that the MUD has no plans to bring out of jail Leopoldo Lopez, that he put himself into that mess, and we assume from his amused, scornful look, that this is not MUD 's problem. You do not need to understand Spanish, just look at his facial expressions. And now he is trying to back track, but it'aint flying and Voluntad Popular, Lopez's party, has demanded his resignation as second secretary of the MUD, which means second in charge after Aveledo. The communique of VP goes as far as suggesting that Medina is in fact collaborating with the regime (1).


It is too bad for someone who was one of the brightest lights of the opposition and Primero Justicia. But since people like Alek Boyd have brought to light that Medina has business deals with banker Victor Vargas who is in bed with the regime and is strongly rumored to be the or one of the new owners of the media group that publishes Ultimas Noticias, we cannot but link that video to this research. Ramon Jose Medina should resign. There is no way he can regain credibility, even if he were to, say, break up publicly with Vargas and go on his knees to Ramo Verde, Lopez's jail.

I am not saying that Medina is/was a double agent. After all he needs a real job and Vargas, as a good corrupt banker, will betray any government if such betrayal saves his empire and allows him to rake more cash. Having a contact with Vargas through Medina may even be good. No, what is truly worrisome here the evidence of secret political shenanigans that we are all suspecting, that some inside the MUD are willing to negotiate a way for chavismo to remain in power for a little bit longer, at least until they get full control of the MUD and thus can direct the transition. Lopez is thus a mere token. The final price would be to let corrupt chavista go scotch free. Our next one in this list adds more evidence to this.

Ramos Allup is right even when he is wrong, or the bliss of Panglossian ignorance

Ramos Allup is the leader of old Accion Democratica, a party which was the cornerstone of Venezuelan politics from the mid 40ies until 1998. He managed to keep control of AD under chavismo through a series of legal cases judged by chavista judges... Then he directed two major blunders of the opposition in 2004 and 2005.  And since then, linked through his wife to people doing sweet business with the regime, his bark became the louder the weaker his bite was. Until even his bark went down a lot since last year.

But being the leader of AD which still has a handful of town-halls (less than VP) gives him a seat at the MUD from where he thinks he is the holder of the truth.  His latest outing was to say that "la salida" failed, that the only way out was through a dialogue. Maybe, but he is disingenuous.

"La Salida" proposed by Lopez (now in jail), Machado (soon in jail) and Ledezma (his time will come) was to demand the resignation of Maduro and the change of system through active, but peaceful protests. That the script did not happen as expected is another story. And that the regime accepted to sit down for a dialogue, pressured in part by UNASUR, was a success of La Salida not of Ramos Allup. That the dialogue table failed is also another story, but Ramos Allup cannot dismiss the effect of La Salida just because he was not the one in charge, just because he has no more following worth discussing anywhere in the country.

But Ramos Allup faults further. If it is probably true that a majority of the country (but not necessarily a majority within the opposition) wants a dialogue (and a compromise with the regime) he cannot claim that he has international support. After all, since the dialogue was suspended May 13, the UNASUR has been unheard of, only too happy that Maduro got an upper hand of sorts so they could go back to their own internal problems (Santos reelection, Correa constitutional change to be president for life and Dilma worried that the World Cup may not be enough to ensure her reelection which she needs badly to be comfortable) (2).

Tomorrow it will be two months of dialogue suspension and there is ABSOLUTELY NO SIGN that Ramos Allup has contributed anything to restart it, hiding behind the "it is up to the regime to make a gesture" when his role as an opposition leader would be to force the regime into such a gesture. I do not see Ramos Allup neither at a barricade nor at some political initiative of substance, preferring to bury Lopez and Machado. If any one can prove me wrong, please do so.

I am through with Capriles

So, let's assume for the sake of the argument, that La Salida was wrong, that Lopez deserves jail and that his new roomie should be Maria Corina. So what is the opposition figurehead, Capriles, offering to do, besides blaming his own failures on Lopez and MCM? More of the same, forgetting the failures of December 2012, his failure to claim its victory in 2013, the failure of the "plebiscite" on Maduro in December 2013.

One of his latest outings reported in Tal Cual was quite illustrative of his increasing arrogance, his belief that he is the lone one that can take chavismo out, in spite of his repeated failures. I do not mean to besmirch him, and I have quite often recognized his personal effort in campaigns, his taking personal risks all the time. But when you are clearly not going anywhere either you change your strategy or let someone else give it a try.

While he was attending some journalism award he claimed that it it was up to him to "reconnect" with the people. That is a contradiction of sorts, since according to Capriles polls say that 89% reject La Salida and should be already connected with him, no? What polls, is the first question. And how it can be 89%, anyway, since for a few weeks half Venezuela was in an uproar that still has embers? 11% can be that effective? Gimme a break!

But it gets worse. He claims that La Salida did not "connect" because its topics were too abstract; political prisoners, constitutional assembly, etc. while people wanted to talk about inflation and crime. Did he not see the banners on barricades talking of those subjects too? And then he goes on telling us that we need a new CNE, that this is the fight, as if fighting for clean elections was less abstract than, say, political prisoners... Never mind that he does not address the built in cheating of the CNE EVEN IF new directors are appointed, such as the atrocious gerrymandering that will allow the regime to retain a majority of the National Assembly even if they lose by more than half a million votes.

The problem here is that I have decided that Capriles has no clear vision of the situation, no clear vision of what the problems are. It is not recent, there has been a pattern to it for a long time. On may 25 2011 he had an infamous knee jerk tweet defending a corrupt action of PDVSA just because so. I wrote then that this could cost him the primaries. It did not, because in part Lopez supported him decisively, which Capriles seems to have long forgotten. But that did not make that knee jerk reaction any less damaging. There is in my eyes a long established pattern of foot in mouth, of ignorance and maybe some intellectual weakness that I cannot ignore anymore.

I am through with Capriles because I think that if by miracle he were to become president within a year or two he will not be able to face the problems of the country, of dealing with chavismo terrorist remnants. I reserve my right of voting for him for that reason, because it is not enough that he is again, maybe, the opposition candidate. I simply think he does not have what it takes. Not even about ruling, but to understand some of the real problems he will have to face. Depending of the circumstances I may actually prefer chavismo to remain in office and face the disaster because a failed Capriles presidency could bring back chavismo with a vengeance.  I think things are that bad.

Can the MUD recover?

Well, right now I hope to have impressed the need that the MUD has for an overall. By abandoning Lopez and Machado the opposition abandons half of its motivated supporters and the remaining ones are not enough to secure an electoral victory. Unless, of course, the desire of the MUD is NOT TO WIN.  After all, one is allowed to suspect that: what has been the strategy of the MUD on the wide CADIVI corruption even denounced by Girodani? What is the resistance of the MUD against the increased militaristic nature of the regime? Where are the MUD entreaties to get support form overseas when sectors inside the MUD are openly asking the US not to investigate money laundering operations of corrupt chavistas with accounts in the US? Why can't Capriles forcefully denounce the new draft imposed on all that are below 60, and even the nation's business?

Are there principles left inside the MUD?  Because without principles, at least one of them for which they are willing to take a dramatic stand, the MUD is going to go nowhere. As long as the MUD let's its leadership in the hands of Medina and Ramos Allup, the MUD is going to go nowhere, it has served its time. Remember that you read it here today.

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1) Fur further information on how Median strives in dark corners read the twitter discussion today between Lopez cousin, Thor Halvorssen and Medina. In Spanish.

2) For a further example on how the MUD is not managing well at all its international "support" you can read a recap of Veneuropa which held a recent meeting in London where Aveledo was the main speaker and where the representative of AD did not even stay until the end. In Spanish. The cacophony between presentations like Aveledo in a bureaucratic tone are in serious contrast with the more articulate, closer to the reality of MCM when she travels abroad.

"Unificación cambiaria" for dummies

I have been meaning for a few days to write up a simple way for people to understand why the country seems to have been frozen the last few weeks, even though Giordani is out, Lopez still in, and Capriles remains deaf mute. You may think that it seems a lot of stuff is going on but this is not the case, no matter what glaring headline stares at you. The reason is quite simple; the country is waiting at three real questions that need answers. The first one is will the regime increase gas prices. The second one is will the regime devaluate at around 15 or at around 25 for the USD. And the third question, maybe the more important one, but that NO ONE dares to touch politically, will the regime amend the labor law of 2012, a regulation that is choking all, ALL business in the country, be they state or private owned.

As long as these questions are not answered neither chavismo can plan for its post Maduro nor the opposition find again some form of political coherence. We are all silenced by the catastrophe about to fall on us.


Fortunately Miguel tonight has criticized an article from the New York Times which I would criticize even more than he does if I were to write about. Then again I am also on record that since Simon Romero left, the NYT coverage of Venezuela this year has been overall deficient, the more so when you compare it to pieces in the WSJ like the ones of Kejal Vyas or pretty much anything from the Washington Post (except in the "World Views" section, unaccountably so). But I digress.

The first question is very simple: increasing the price of gas to semi realistic prices is the best, and maybe only way for the regime to plug its worst glaring budgetary holes. Unfortunately the political price to be paid for 15 years of reckless populism from Chavez who himself said early in his term that as long as if he was president the price of gas would not go up may be too much for a fragile regime to accept. And yet, something has to be done, with all sources of energy, gas for car, gas for cooking and electricity.

The third question is crucial because if the regime does not allow people to fire lousy workers and saboteurs, there is no way that production of food will go up, that unemployment will decrease. To make a long story short, besides the myriad of regulations that are strangling business the worse one is the inability to fire employees. The law certainly previews that if you fire without justification someone you must pay double the severance legal package for workers. The problem is that you also need the permission of the labor ministry and that one is only granted, on occasion, to state business. For private sector employees, only if you catch them red handed in some form of crime you can fire them (and still need to wait for some form of trial anyway).

I cannot describe you about the extortion industry that has surged as soon as Chavez published the new law for electoral purposes in 2012. In some cases the situation has gone so bad that companies prefer to pay repeated fines, pay the worker full salary, but bar that worker from entering the work place. Simply put, the lousy example, the low morale that such crooks create among other employees, the sabotage risks are in the end more expensive than paying the extortion fees that legally the regime can now impose. Needless to say that permanent hiring has disappeared, that the few folks that are hired are done so under contract and that no matter how good they are, they are let go when the time is up.

I can assure you that this labor law has become the major problem of Venezuelan business, far more important for us than dissertations of airline fees, or even access to raw materials. Because if we get the dollars, if we get the raw materials, labor extortion will go further up. Extortion is now a bona fide labor industry.They simply know how much a business can make and they want it all in fines, social benefits and what not, regardless of the needs the business has for investment, modernization, technology and what not. In fact, talks of state named soviets has slowed down only because the regime knows better than put them inside state enterprises at a time where there are so many rivalries inside chavismo. Those workers council could even in theory decide what is produced and to what extent and at what price...

If I have made this long meandering before reaching the core of this post, the devaluation to come, it is because you need to understand that the gigantic subsidy to energy that the regime pays, and the shackles that it has put on business production potential are the two main causes of inflation and recession.  All the rest, from corruption to brutal incompetence passing through useless socio-electoral programs is one way or the other linked to the these two items that I just described.  And for the nth time the regime finds only a way out, devaluation, ignoring that a new devaluation will make energy finally free for the public, 99% at the regime expense. While also wrecking perhaps even Polar, our main private food provider. But this is of no importance for the regime as long as it can keep meeting payroll for an extra 2-3 months and corruption in the higher spheres keeps actively racking in.

The true root of the problem is, again under Chavez idiotic orders, that the regime does not want to have legally more than one official exchange rate (as it was the case in pre Chavez years). So the regime has been working hard at inventing derivative systems to hide what was in fact a second exchange rate. But a dual exchange rate can only sort of work if its rules are clear but flexible. You want to avoid a run on your money but you want prices to reflect international reality. So in practice you allocate a portion of your reserves to a given rate for those items that are, shall we say, of national interest and the rest at a floating rate. In Venezuela there was a single exchange rate and diverse tamperings so today we have two other rates which are not of free access, and which are not funded directly by reserves but by the wishes of people to bring back to Venezuela their dollars at better rates. This of course failed. Why?

If the regime has accepted reality last year, say in December 15, it could have devaluated from 6,3 to, say, 9. And it would have allocated, say, 10% of its reserves to a "free" rate starting at 15 which would have been at first for travel, luxury items, booze imports, etc.  That 10% would have been funded directly by the reserves. And then, month by month that initial 15 would have slid toward a 20+ while more and more items would have been added to that exchange such as clothing, personal hygiene, etc.  The slower the slide the freer the access. By now we would have that "free" exchange above 20, representing at least 30% of our imports and the pressure on the 9 rate would have been much alleviated, with the added benefit that the inflation effects would have been absorbed. With better budgetary polices why not imagine that in December 2014 the 9 goes to 11 and the 20 reaches a now stable and free 25 for 50% of our imports, allowing sometimes in 2015 the final step to a free currency again.

But the government chose the worst options.

One, it stuck at an untenable 6,3, so afraid it was of inflation, so unable it was to prorate the budget and liquidity cuts necessary to slow down the inflation rate.

Second, it created a SICAD 1 which was woefully underfunded and at a 10 rate that made no sense.

Third, bowing the the reality of a black market, it created a SICAD 2 at around 50, controlled, with limited access, that was supposedly going to finance itself by returning dollars from abroad. It did not happen because not only the restrictions scared possible investors, but the government failed to understand that people who took great pains to bring their meager savings to international markets have ZERO trust in the regime. Apparently there are some in the regime amazed that folks did not flock to buy bolivares at 50! They are truly clueless...

As I predicted somewhere early this year, the June black market value remained in the 70ies... Confirming the failure of SICAD 2.

What should the government do now? Besides its obvious need to change its social and subsidy policies, it MUST devaluate, and not anymore at 9. With an inflation that is not even published anymore, my guess is that the regime needs to go straight to a 12 rate, STRICTLY for raw material and food sold at MERCAL only. SICAD 1 should become a second fixed rate for other  food and medicine and clothing, say, at 20. That new rate should be official and should already dispose of 30% of  incoming dollars and should be transparent. And finally SICAD 2 should be a daily open bidding process, no questions asked, for 10 million dollars to the highest bidder and may the Lord have mercy on us. That SICAD 2 would rocket to 80 or higher at first but within weeks could go down to as low as 60. Finally a SICAD 3 should be created indirectly by completely decriminalizing exchange. That is, you can negotiate on your own with particulars at what price you wish to buy your dollars.

NOTE: I am not advocating the solution above, I am just offering it as a transition measure while the regime modifies its energy prices and labor laws, at the very least.

Why, may you ask, do I offer such numbers since I am no economist, no financial expert? Well, I manage a business and I can assure you that any devaluation above these numbers is certain to send belly up at least half of the remaining private sector. It is that simple, it is the numbers that we may be able to manage if we know that the regime is making other changes that will allow in 2015 to recover some. One thing is to dissect exchange rates in think tank groups, another for the local producer to sum up its plus and liabilities.

But what is the government planning? The worst!  A "unficacion cambiaria" which is Orwellian code to bring in together under a single fixed exchange rate that they will control in full of 6,3, SICAD 1 and SICAD 2 at 25 or maybe even more.

If this happen, the inflation for the second half of 2014 alone will go above 100%, and half of the remaining private sector will close shop. American airlines will be able to shut down operations completely, it will be the least of our concerns as we make your way on foot toward the Colombian border.

I can only assume that the regime has decided that devaluation has the lowest political cost, and a big devaluation may not be that bad: after all we have had several devaluations in recent years and as long as the chavista lumpen keeps getting its free bag of MERCAL of sub par products they tend to remain quiet. Heck! they have even learned to stand in lines for hours already! The folks that would start protesting, well, they are already protesting and Capriles is telling them to stay put. Some more tear gas and order should come back fast. There will be always time to take less popular measures like gas prices.

But times have changed and a harsh devaluation will find the private sector at its weakest since Chavez was elected in 1998. Has the regime a clue? Is the regime aware that this time around a devaluation without care, without accompanying real measures might just be what will light up the fuse of massive social unrest?

The Normal Heart

I watched last night on HBO the film version of the famous Larry Kramer play of 1984 about the AIDS crisis in New York. That sent me for a time warp spin.

Curiously, although having read all the "right books" of the 80ies on AIDS and gay life, I had missed reading that play of Kramer (I prefer to read theater than attending it, do not ask). But I certainly knew of his writings, having read the infamously famous "Faggots". And of his activist career, including his participation in the founding of ACT UP.

The movie sent me tear eyed to those years in the US for my doctoral degree, and was faced with my own coming out, just as a scientist I knew from the very first time I saw a TV report on "gay cancer" that this could only be caused by an infectious agent. That we had to wait 2 more years for confirmation is due to the way science works, but we all knew that this was going to be the final outcome, enhanced or not by external factors.

This certainly put a hold for a while on my relationships but it did not stop me to get progressively involved though volunteer work, starting at the Chase Brexton of Baltimore in its glorious early scrappy days. Activism was not possible as I was a foreigner and my ethics prevented me to do so, even though I knew much more about US politics and history than the average Joe. Still, I did join even ACT UP marches when I knew they were going to be well behaved. And I will pass on the Gay Prides of the late 80ies, on the Quilts Memorial at the Washington Mall, on the Pro Choice gigantic rallies then, etc...

In addition of being trilingual and tricultural, I can also say that I have a 4th culture, the gay american culture which is where I came out and had my first relationships. And this include a lot of stuff, from a love for Broadway Tunes, to a Liberal heart forged in the bigoted era of the Reagan Bush administrations. It does not matter how much of a fiscal conservative I am, how much I prize a minimum of order, respect and education,  private enterprise and free trade, but I cannot vote for any one that does not embrace gay rights, pro choice policies and some reasonable form of affirmative action. I cannot. There is a matter of principles and ethics that come from too many tears 30 years ago.

But as I watched tear eyed The Normal Heart, remembering brutally stuff I had not thought about for 20 years, something else came to my notice.  Certainly the Republican administration of the time did not want anything to do with AIDS, gay rights and the like. Or as Julia Roberts points in the movie, more millions were spent on 7 victims of a tampered Tylenol jars than on the already thousand of patients in New York alone.  But one thing I was able to see. Republicans of the era did not pretend to be gay friendly, and when they gave something, for as little as that was, they did not pretend either that they were dealing effectively and generously with the situation.  I do not mean to make apologies for the Reagan people then, but at least we should acknowledge that they were coherent with their positions.

If I can be that understanding today with something that caused me great grief 30 years ago it is because 15 years of chavismo have gone by. See, in Venezuela we have a regime that claims to be liberal in excess, the salvation of human kind and yet its deeds are sorely lacking. As far as homophobia is concerned chavismo has nothing to envy from the nutty right wing of the US, they are of the same mentality that gave us "but some of my best friends are gay/black/woman".  In fact homophobia inside chavismo is worse because for political needs it is fair game to use it, something that main stream Republicans did not do besides a possible occasional allusion to a difference (excepting Jesse Helms, of course).  I actually had gay friends that were Republican (precious few, of course) and I could put up with it. Here, I cannot look in the face gays that support Chavez because I am afraid to lose composure. I cannot understand it. I broke lose with them even though my S.O. still sees them occasionally.

But that is not all. Let's look at health care. Certainly in the early 80ies there were so many problems in hospitals refusing to attend patients with the mysterious disease. Yet, calling it a genocide like Kramer does is a little bit of a stretch. Fear is one thing, intention is another. As such I am not going to qualify the disaster of public hospitals in Venezuela as genocide, though criminal it is. Yesterday I was writing about a documentary of CNN at the Hospital Clinico of Caracas. One thing I did not write was that I experienced personally the disaster there last February when the lousy attention my S.O. received would have cost him his life had we not taken him out of there to a private clinic. It was not AIDS, it was cancer, but the mess was comparable.

It is morally worse in Venezuela due to the hypocrisy of a regime that vaunts world wide its heath successes that are today proven nonexistent or voided. This hypocrisy, this "I do not care a shit about people in public hospitals while I send my family and relatives to private clinics" would make me again the activist, a Ned Weeks variation, if I were younger, if I did not have for my own Felix to care for already, if I had not burnt my eyes for so many years on a computer screen for you, if it were not a dictatorship, if it were a place where I could get a court order from a judge, something that could not happen in Venezuela where the whistle blowers are those put in jail, straight.  The ACT UP of Venezuela today are its students, and they are abandoned by politicians, "main stream" just as ACT UP was judged in the US, by its main stream. Even if in the end ACT UP sort of prevailed.

I am telling you, the price we will pay for 15 years of chavismo is barely starting to be evaluated. Our tears are only starting. The 80ies may turn out to have been nothing.

Empty hospitals, empty airports

While Capriles and the MUD keep gazing at their navel and while chavismo tries to find a novel idea, the country keeps sinking at a steady pace. Today we had two gems that speak volumes about what await us.


Tonight I was watching CNNE "dinero" which is becoming the best newscast about Venezuela economy, since here, well, you know....The topic tonight was the disaster of Venezuelan public hospitals where in addition of being murdered during surgery by a gang, there is a dramatic lack of supplies. Summary here.  What was more striking here is that Xabier Serbia insisted over and over again that the problem was not only currency exchange control and lack of USD, but that corruption in hospitals was to blame. A lot. That is right, the implications here is that hospital directors in Venezuela, free from any control, with all sort of paramilitary chavista groups having free access to hospitals to "supervise" "ensure security" etc. are simply unable to control what is going on, if not becoming themselves active participants tot he looting.

What am I supposed to conclude? That corruption has reached such ramifications that there is nothing we can do about it anymore? That the deep roots of corruption, even at the expense of the lives of el pueblo, are the best guarantee of regime survival?

Earlier on today we learned that Delta airlines is also suspending its services to Venezuela. From 7 fights a week to Atlanta we will go down to a single round trip on Sundays starting August. People who had a ticket scheduled for a return after July 31 will see their travel plans canceled outright and their ticket refunded. Too bad for their vacation, business trip, what not. Those who by chance had a return on Sunday are OK. Delta dose not even try to put its passengers on other airlines: there are none with the US as american went down from 48 a week to 10 a few weeks ago and probably has not been able to reroute all of its own passengers.

This Delta thing affect me in particular as it was my way to the US, avoiding at all costs transit through Miami. Delta was informally THE airlines of those of us in Venezuela who saw no charm in Miami, who spoke English well enough to be able to shop on our own in South Dakota if needed. Delta was the airline of those who actually like to go to the US, not to Miami. And sure enough, today one of my relatives had its long planed family vacation (tickets bought almost a year ago) wrecked...

But these inconveniences are only a curio note. The real problem here is that Delta is one of the last airlines that cut its services. Most of them have already dropped their frequency or started sending smaller airplanes. The meaning is clear: airlines are starting to come to grips with the fact that the regime IS NOT going to pay the 4 something billion dollars it owes to the airlines. It will not. Period. In fact, even the meager palliative offers that have been under painful discussions for months are not even respected by the regime. The regime has decided to isolate Venezuela. Period, again.

The first consequence is that in a socialist paradise only the rich, those who have dollars outside of the country, will be able to travel in an out as the airlines are starting to sell plane tickets only for dollars. The VBE is not accepted anymore.

The second consequence is worse: in time of crisis, Venezuela isolates itself further from humanity, from technological help, from help.

Truly, with an isolation that is going to breed even more desperate corruption, I see no way out of our crisis.

A noisy silence upon our corruption

Silence like a cancer grows.

For the last time maybe I read my Sunday edition of El Universal.  I suppose that the new owners still did not have time to change the contains significantly but I am more than certain that within weeks major journalists will be leaving the paper, that the editorial line will go from confrontational to bland if not outright supportive of the regime. It happened with Ultimas Noticias, it happened with Globovision, it was such since day one at Tves.  And more minor examples that I could list. Today we are left with only two national papers that publish it all, El Nacional and Tal Cual; some local papers like El Carabobeño and El Impulso; some AM radio here and there. Period.  If you live in Yaracuy State, you need to make a significant effort to get news that are not filtered to support the regime in its main points (even though the red page cannot hide the whole truth). The hoi poloi cannot be bothered.


But this is not really the point of this post. The point is that the purchase of El Universal by "mysterious new owners" is a profound reflection of the ways the country has changed. And what is ahead.

People talking without speaking,
People hearing without listening,

The first real problem with that El Universal purchase is that its cost is comparable to what was paid for the Washington Post or Le Monde in France. And yet these papers quality and reach are incomparable to what El Universal can bring today, when it cannot even get all the printing paper it needs, even less finance foreign correspondents, investigative teams, etc. Clearly, El Universal is overpaid and the people paying for it do not care. Why?

The first observation comes straight from Alek Boyd which finds out that the front company purchasing El Universal is barely around 1 year old and has no assets. And yet manage hundred of millions of dollars.

Then the few people that we know are associated with this purchase have a checkered past, linked to groups with financial scandals before the Chavez era, namely Banco Latino.

This is enough to draw already a conclusion: people that can pay so easily a newspaper whose lone real asset is a building downtown Caracas and whose brand is only worth something in Venezuela, losing it as soon as the identity of the buyers will finally get known, are laundering money. They are willingly doing that because the laundering is made it easier by a complacent regime that wants the critical voice of El Universal silenced, in particular the voice on economics about Venezuela as El Universal for better or worse has been the most reliable chronicler of the waste the regime has brought upon us.

And to add insult to injury, crooks of pre Chavez era are advising looters of Chavez era on how to round up such business.

And the people bowed and prayed
And no one dared
Disturb the sound of silence.

Unfortunately for us the evidence of financial corruption that allows for the sale of a crown jewel of Venezuelan history and Establishment to basic looters has been made possible by too much complicity, too much disgusted silence, too much cowardice. In short, intellectual corruption.

We can start by the never ending debacle of the organized political opposition, never willing to take a definitive stand to defend our liberties. We must remember that it was in the students in 2007 that defended RCTV when the regime decided to close it down. Today, after Globovision gone, after El Universal gone we can read stupid tweets from Capriles touring Podunk and abandoning Lopez and Machado, blaming them for his own bad luck. I wonder if he realizes that nobody will be reporting of any upcoming campaign where he may be a candidate. As for Aveledo? He is shocked!

But I also remember many an attack made by people that should have known better, people bemoaning the poor quality of Venezuelan journalism without understanding truly what is at stake, under which conditions Venezuelan press had to operate. And I read that same intellectual weakness from foreign papers to Venezuelan blogs, who know have not much credibility in defending freedom of information in Venezuela.

Because a vision softly creeping,
People writing songs that voices never share

This week also illustrates already how much we are going to miss El Universal. See, a few weeks ago nothing else but the mayor of Caracas, backed by some of the highest dignitaries of the regime, accused half a dozen opposition politicians of planing the nth assassination attempt against Maduro. Unfortunately for mayor Rodriguez, who looked like a true psychopath while accusing the others of being such, one of his victims has resided in the US for many years and has access to the US judicial system. Pedro Burelli took that advantage of an independent judiciary to get a court order and get from Google the proof that the e-mails presented by Rodriguez were lousy forgeries.

In short, Rodriguez was caught lying through and through.

If we had an independent press, and a public opinion supporting it, defending it, we would have by now a polite but firm campaign demanding that Rodriguez either resign as mayor of Caracas, or at least makes a public apology. But besides a few notes, including an editorial from El Nacional we are not going to get much and Rodriguez will go unpunished for an infamous act that put in danger the lives a dozens of innocent people.

The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls

For us still trying to write inside Venezuela, the situation becomes complicated. Now we have less reliable sources of information. We re going to have to learn the hard way to read in between lines the official news, if we have the stomach for it. We will have to rely more on Twitter with all the risks that this entails, the worst being the brevity and lack of details. We are going to have to take educated guesses in the way we report stuff, be it on newspapers to avoid censorship, be it in modest blogs that pretend to remain respectable. And the foreign press may be even less reliable as it depends already too much on limited sources and joints like El Universal.

All of this while not trying to grow bitter because we have been abandoned by media owners, by opposition politicians that were supposed to defend our liberties at their own risk, watching those that did so it rot in jail, abandoned by their colleagues.

Truly prophets we shall become...