Of course, I could regale you with further tales of corruption and economic failure. But this blog is not that much about information these days, rather about the wonderment of being the deer in the headlights while been aware of it. My personal and my work situations are such that adequate information search is a luxurious time element I cannot afford anymore. Besides, where to look for reliable information, numbers? With El Universal gone, Tal Cual with resources too limited for investigative journalism and EL Nacional a near paperless semi shrill...
Then again Miguel has published two superb posts, one about the $$$$ magnitude of the racket of gasoline at the border which explains why so many are "against" a gasoline price increase; and another one about how the regime is unable to decide anything, not even starting to print paper money with numbers according to inflation.
Of course my dearest friend does not have to stand in line for medicine or food like I do, so he can mine for this valuable data. But what he may miss is the realization that the political personnel of the regime may be worse than what we may have thought all along. Such epiphany can only be reached when after one hour or two of line under the sun you reach the shelves only to realize that the items finally run out, no matter what was the rationing imposed by the store.
Here I am not talking about the latest luminary, a certain Mendez who has taken upon himself the task of promoting finger printing as the solution to food scarcity. He is a mere idiot used as a mouth piece, too young to have done much damage yet but with, oh, so much potential for dereliction.
No, no. Reading a piece form El Mundo on CITGO was quite an eye opener even for someone as blasé as I am. The journalist was reporting on Venezuelan officials finding it a good idea to sell CITGO before Venezuela loses lawsuits that may result in CITGO being embargoed (1). Of course, the astute readers of this blog will notice that if CITGO is an easy embargo to do in the US, there are plenty of other ways in which the winners of the law suit will be able to recover their due, if anything by blocking Venezuela's ability to raise money for further debt. Thus already you know that the people that I am going to name next are outright scum and/or idiots.
The first one to give his opinion was Jesus Faria, a true communist, that saw inside the PSUV more opportunities to express his true self than in the Venezuelan Communist party, which, believe it it or not, is more serious than the PSUV. For him, who is the vice president of the parliamentary committee on finances and economic development, the US will seek revenge by taking CITGO after the trial is decided. That is, for him, separation of powers is a non concept in the US, the tribunals will merely decide what OBAMA and Wall Street want.
Can we blame Faria to think that way? After all, it is exactly the way justice operates in Venezuela today when Maduro or Cabello announce publicly the expected judicial decisions for a given trial. Never mind that there is even legal "justification" coming from nothing less but the mother in law of Ramirez, oil minister now for years. Hildegard Rondon for all practical purposes said that it could be considered criminal for a Venezuelan lawyer to defend a US company being expropriated in Venezuela. Since that expectoration the ex justice of a democratic Venezuela has gone further to caution the regime's judicial aberrations by uttering bigoted comments about the "anglo saxon" judicial system, and that state should prevail against individual, a basic tenet of totalitarianism. Of course, she is on PDVSA payroll.
And it turns out that Ramirez was the second official quoted in El Mundo. And that quote deserves transcription: "assets outside the country are virtually hostage of other jurisdiction and pay taxes in the US". Huh? Is Ramirez saying that US assets in Venezuela should be hostage to Venezuela's system? That US assets in Venezuela should not be paying taxes in Venezuela? Please............
The next Illuminati is Roger Cordero a representative of Lara state who can only manage 251 followers in Tweeter when it is well known that all chavistas have gazillions followers as they follow and re-tweet each other all the time... rarely having an original tweet of their own... Cordero is the vice president of the committee for oil industry, arguably the more important in Venezuela. More bluntly than Faria he is certain that the US cannot wait to seize CITGO (note, they never mention the companies suing, for them it might as well be Obama). Full of chutzpah Cordero says that Citgo fate will be consulted with "el pueblo" of course, even though the regime has ruled out a referendum on the matter...
Now, I know that these people are brain washed, that they act in bad faith, that they are trying to save their ass and what have you (selling Citgo merely because the regime is flat broke). But at some level I expected that people at these positions said such stuff for the chavista lumpen they serve, albeit saving for themselves some doubts, or at the very least having a faint idea why people outside of Venezuela were pissed at them. After all, they are always upset when Venezuela is not taken seriously outside, so one would imagine that.... But I am afraid I am wrong. I trust you will concur with me when I suspect that no, these people are truly fully self righteous, that no matter how much damage they inflict on other people they feel justified in doing so. Amen of their incapacity to understand what those problems are all about. When I think about the 4 individuals named above I cannot help but to think about the words of true totalitarians when eventually they reached trial, their stunning inability to perceive the evil they did.
And this, my friends, is truly nightmarish. Not only because of the damage these people can still inflict on us, but at the daunting task that rebuilding the country will be, at the amount of people that we are going to have to bring to trial. I thought that bringing to trial a couple dozen people like Ramirez would be enough to make a point and proceed with "reconciliation" and rebuilding the country. But I am afraid that I need to revise this number way up, that our Nuremeberg version will require sitting on accused bench a dozen of hundreds.
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1) Years ago Citgo was bought by the Venezuelan state oil company. The objective was to fit them to the heavy crude qualities of Venezuelan oil and thus insure a stable market for Venezuelan oil no matter what the price of oil was. Certainly Citgo is a US company on a legal point of view but any after tax benefit can be repatriated to Venezuela as needed, or invested in the US to expand its reach and thus import even more Venezuelan oil.
The fears of the regime are of course due to Chavez arrogance who decided to expropriate developing oil interests in the very heavy crude of the Orinoco belt. This has been a disaster because the regime refused to understand that the heavy investment made in the Orinoco mean these US companies had to bail out of other places on earth where they could not return as easily. As such their loss cannot be quantified merely on how much equipment was seized on the ground when the Nazional Guard took over. Hence the never ending law suits that are going to cost us a bundle, maybe the future of half a generation of Venezuelans.
But chavismo of course is not ready to admit what a piece of shit Chavez was. Yet.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Gas smuggling to Colombia. Contrabando de gasolina a Colombia
For those who are still not aware of the smuggling business of gasoline to Colombia
Even if one is aware of the traffic, even if one does not understand Spanish, you cannot fail to be impressed by the visuals. Clearly, smuggling to such an extent is only possible because the Venezuelan authorities have allowed it because they benefit from it. And the cancer of corruption spreads evenly everywhere as the local Colombian authorities have found it safer to join in than trying to stop it. In short, the gains from getting gas for free in Venezuela and selling it at international prices in Colombia is so profitable that everyone along the way cashes in, from the natives whose lands are crossed and who demand a toll, to the guerrilla groups that work hand in hand with the Venezuelan guard. (hat tip Charly, video from Caracol TV Colombia, impossible to pass on TV in Venezuela today).
Viva Chavez, carajo!
Even if one is aware of the traffic, even if one does not understand Spanish, you cannot fail to be impressed by the visuals. Clearly, smuggling to such an extent is only possible because the Venezuelan authorities have allowed it because they benefit from it. And the cancer of corruption spreads evenly everywhere as the local Colombian authorities have found it safer to join in than trying to stop it. In short, the gains from getting gas for free in Venezuela and selling it at international prices in Colombia is so profitable that everyone along the way cashes in, from the natives whose lands are crossed and who demand a toll, to the guerrilla groups that work hand in hand with the Venezuelan guard. (hat tip Charly, video from Caracol TV Colombia, impossible to pass on TV in Venezuela today).
Viva Chavez, carajo!
Saturday, August 23, 2014
The bolivarian revolutionary army goes to war!
In a feat unseen since the first two decades of the XIX century the Venezuelan Bolivarian Chavista Army has gone on the offensive and decided to dispose of this major threat to our nation: smugglers. No expense should be spared as these people have been able to smuggle away 40% of our food without no one noticing for months of "economic war". But guided by Maduro and Fidel, the glorious revolutionary army has opened its eyes and from the twitter of the commander in chief himself we get accounts from the glorious battles fought. Next, choice tweets from Vladimir Padrino account with my most admiring appreciation.
Of course, we need to start from the field command, on top of a hill as it should. Apparently from this exquisitely chosen strategic position many smugglers path are visible and are being destroyed under the keen supervision of thefat robust generals, a wonder to all. You may appreciate the latest fashion in bullet proof jackets which I am sure were an urgent necessity on top of that hill as we can see from the very anxious facial expressions.
And what are they catching?
First, we cannot underline enough the wiliness and resourcefulness of these smugglers. They will even use school buses for their sordid deeds.
Of course, I wonder how did all that stuff ever fit in a bus, and how come a bus going through dirt rods for smuggling purposes can be such a sparking marvel. But I am such a nitpicker... Whatever! The glorious army exposed these dangerous criminals, Heck! Two were even arrested. And if smugglers can put 8, EIGHT tons in a rickety bus (plus half a ton of refrigerating gas), the army will find them anyway!
But there is more! Suddenly the Nazional Guard has become aware of the lines of trucks leaving with smuggled gas to Colombia. Apparently smugglers were able to hide in full daylight such operations but no more! Maduro enlightened Padrino and the revolutionary army can finally see what eluded its vigilance for the last 6 years, at least!
No point going further, the smart reader knows that all of these are mere propaganda, and a bad one at that as it proves beyond doubt that if smuggling with Colombia was possible on such a scale it was because the Nazional Guard was an accomplice. Period.
The question is why now? As I have written in recent posts, from that smuggling pseudo war to the finger printing machine threat in every grocery store is a propaganda strategy for the regime to get something else. What? That is the question. My best bet is that the regime wants to establish a ration card system AT LEAST for its followers at Mercal or PDVAL state stores. And through that ensure that at least the social base of chavismo gets its basic staples. What will be decided for the rest of Venezuelans is the interesting story.
Of course, we need to start from the field command, on top of a hill as it should. Apparently from this exquisitely chosen strategic position many smugglers path are visible and are being destroyed under the keen supervision of the
Observando desde Puesto Fronterizo "Cerro El Indio" inutilizacion de trochas usadas por el contrabando, en la Guajira pic.twitter.com/Ilgj8aDSV8
— Vladimir Padrino L. (@vladimirpadrino) August 18, 2014And what are they catching?
First, we cannot underline enough the wiliness and resourcefulness of these smugglers. They will even use school buses for their sordid deeds.
Fachadas del contrabando:AUTOBÚS ESCOLAR.Retenidas 8Ton Alpiste, 56 Bombonas de Gas Refrigerante.Guajira. 2 detenidos pic.twitter.com/11cnrMu3lX
— Vladimir Padrino L. (@vladimirpadrino) August 19, 2014Of course, I wonder how did all that stuff ever fit in a bus, and how come a bus going through dirt rods for smuggling purposes can be such a sparking marvel. But I am such a nitpicker... Whatever! The glorious army exposed these dangerous criminals, Heck! Two were even arrested. And if smugglers can put 8, EIGHT tons in a rickety bus (plus half a ton of refrigerating gas), the army will find them anyway!
But there is more! Suddenly the Nazional Guard has become aware of the lines of trucks leaving with smuggled gas to Colombia. Apparently smugglers were able to hide in full daylight such operations but no more! Maduro enlightened Padrino and the revolutionary army can finally see what eluded its vigilance for the last 6 years, at least!
En este momento REDI Occidental detiene en sector Libano, Municipio Mara, columna vehiculos con 43560 lts combustible pic.twitter.com/seTinCUGo0
— Vladimir Padrino L. (@vladimirpadrino) August 16, 2014No point going further, the smart reader knows that all of these are mere propaganda, and a bad one at that as it proves beyond doubt that if smuggling with Colombia was possible on such a scale it was because the Nazional Guard was an accomplice. Period.
The question is why now? As I have written in recent posts, from that smuggling pseudo war to the finger printing machine threat in every grocery store is a propaganda strategy for the regime to get something else. What? That is the question. My best bet is that the regime wants to establish a ration card system AT LEAST for its followers at Mercal or PDVAL state stores. And through that ensure that at least the social base of chavismo gets its basic staples. What will be decided for the rest of Venezuelans is the interesting story.
Friday, August 22, 2014
Nuevo récord de Maduro en burradas por discurso
Lo de Maduro hoy fue todo un récord de burradas, digno del más maburro de todos. Antes, permítanme hacer una acotación. Maduro es un ignorante. Lo único que hace es repetir sin entender lo que le preparan, desde la Habana lo mas seguro. No es que el sea estúpido, no. El es vivo e intrigante si no como llegaba hasta donde llegó. Pero viveza no es inteligencia ni raciocinio. Viveza es un agudo instinto de supervivencia ligado a ambición, falta de escrúpulos e ignorancia de lo básico. Pero, repito, inteligencia no es. Es por eso que un bruto puede ser vivo.
No se si fue en cadena o en discurso, pero lo que Maduro dijo hoy fue de lo último. (1). Sin mayor orden de importancia porque en verdad, como escoger dentro de lo peor... (2)
Maduro condecoró los que fueron a llevar ayuda a Gaza. ¿Por que? ¿No era su trabajo? ¿Es que acaso otros países se la pasan condecorando a quien sea que lleve ayuda en zonas de desastres? ¿El avión venezolano paso por metralla israelí? ¿Esquivó cohetes del Hamas?
Maduro prohibió la exportación de productos de cesta básica. ¿Es que no hubo un carajo en el gobierno que le dijo que ya Chávez lo había prohibido? ¿Como queda Chávez ahí? Bueno, es verdad, el país está desmemoriado...
Y hablando de productos prohibidos. ¿No sabe Maduro que Venezuela hasta los años 1920 vivía de exportaciones de café y cacao? ¿No sabe Maduro que si existe Venezuela es porque se organizó alrededor del contrabando de extracción contra la Guipuzcoana, que volvió ricos a los grandes cacaos que fueron los primeros financiadores de la guerra de la independencia? El problema no es el contrabando de lo que se produce, el problema es que con CADIVI el contrabando viene de lo que se importa porque ya no se puede producir nada en Venezuela. Yo te voy a decir una cosa Maduro, algo que YO SÍ SE y tu no. Libera el precio del café. Dale un subsidio ligero por quintal producido por 5 años mientras se recupera el sector. Protege las fincas de café de las invasiones y los malandros. En 10 años Venezuela estará produciendo no solamente suficiente café para su consumo, pero también empezará a exportar legítimamente. Es así de fácil, créeme.
Y ya que estamos en contrabando, te atreves a decir que el 40% de la comida se va por la frontera con Colombia. ¿Como se te ocurre chico? ¿Es que 4 de cada 10 gandolas que salen de Mariara van directo a Colombia sin que nadie se de cuenta, sin que nadie las pueda parar? ¿Te das cuentas que estás llamando gafos inútiles y/o corruptos a TODOS los guardias que se ocupan de las alcabalas en las carreteras? ¿Y si tu crees que en verdad Capriles y al oposición están detrás de eso, por que no los pones presos de una vez para que, zasssss, termine el contrabando? ¿O es que no te importa aparentar ser mas bolsa de lo que eres?
Y siguiendo con el contrabando, aquí una pregunta entre panas. ¿Hasta cuando te vas a hacer el desentendido que el contrabando existe porque la Guardia Nacional lo convirtió en su negocio redondo? ¿Tu en verdad crees que hay cientos de trochas en la frontera? Mira Nicolás, en la frontera con media docena de caminos la Guardia pasa TODO LO QUE LE DE LA GANA, sea gasolina, harina PAN, pollo o aceite Diana.
Lo peor es que te contradices. Prohíbes la exportación pero a los pocos minutos ofreces crear almacenes para venderle en divisas al precio justo lo que Colombia necesita... ¿Como es eso? ¿Es que tu crees que en verdad Colombia necesita nuestra comida? ¿No entiendes que el negocio es exportar lo producido en Colombia mientras se comen lo que importan de Venezuela subsidiado por CADIVI y ofrecido por la corrupción? En la Casa de Nariño se deben de estar retorciendo a carcajadas en el piso mismo....
Y ya que hablas de almacenes. ¿Como es eso que vas a hacer PDVALES al por mayor? ¿Y como los vas a llenar si los PDVAL minoristas ya están vacíos, y muchos cerrados? ¡Por Dios!
Claro, lo de los PDVAL al mayor y al menor es con relación a los captahuellas del racionamiento. No me voy a preocupar por eso. No vas a poder hacerlo, ni en diciembre ni nunca. El que te dice que lo va a organizar para diciembre te está estafando. Otra vez quedas EN RIDÍCULO por que se ve que hace años que no sales de compras por Caracas. Mira Nicolás, ¿tu no sabes que la CANTV está tan mala que cuando uno paga con tarjeta de débito casi siempre tiene que pasarla mas de una vez? ¿Y que aunque pase a la primera, se tarda por lo menos uno a dos minutos? ¿Y tu crees que agregándole la tremenda sobrecarga de los captahuellas va a funcionar mejor la CANTV? ¡No me j...s!
Miren, termino aquí porque ya esta claro que Nicolás batió el récord de burradas para un solo día, no tengo que agregar más. Y díganme que ya tenia el récord bien alto. Yo no se lo que le hizo el vampiro de Fidel en Cuba, pero parece que le vaciaron lo poco que le quedaba en el cerebro.
Yo entiendo muy bien que Maduro no me habla a mi. Ni a la oposición. El habla al lumpen chavista, ese lumpen embrutecido y lambúcio. El no lo creó, el no tiene la culpa que tantos de nuestros conciudadanos hayan caído tan bajo en la escala cultural. Aunque el si tiene la culpa de seguir promoviendo tanta ignorancia, tanta mentira para mantenerlos sometidos a su poder y a su corrupción. En fin, aunque consideremos la audiencia de Maduro, hoy el tipo se pasó. No tiene excusas por tanta brutalidad.
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1) Tengo que confesar algo: si bien las cadenas de Chávez las podía oír pero no ver, las de Maduro no puedo ni oírlas ni verlas de la pena ajena que me dan. O sea, cuando escribo sobre Maduro es por lo que leo. Por lo tanto leyendo las burradas de Maduro hoy no les puedo decir lo contento de haber dejado de ver la televisión venezolana desde que El Ciudadano salio. Ademas, ¿que me pierdo? ¿entretenimiento degradante? ¿noticias vacías? ¿mentiras oficiales? Díganme si fuera de Vale TV queda algo en lo cual uno pueda confiar, algo que no ofenda la inteligencia.
2) mis fuentes son El Nacional, El Periodiquito, Aporrea entre otros. Pa'que no digan...
No se si fue en cadena o en discurso, pero lo que Maduro dijo hoy fue de lo último. (1). Sin mayor orden de importancia porque en verdad, como escoger dentro de lo peor... (2)
Maduro condecoró los que fueron a llevar ayuda a Gaza. ¿Por que? ¿No era su trabajo? ¿Es que acaso otros países se la pasan condecorando a quien sea que lleve ayuda en zonas de desastres? ¿El avión venezolano paso por metralla israelí? ¿Esquivó cohetes del Hamas?
Maduro prohibió la exportación de productos de cesta básica. ¿Es que no hubo un carajo en el gobierno que le dijo que ya Chávez lo había prohibido? ¿Como queda Chávez ahí? Bueno, es verdad, el país está desmemoriado...
Y hablando de productos prohibidos. ¿No sabe Maduro que Venezuela hasta los años 1920 vivía de exportaciones de café y cacao? ¿No sabe Maduro que si existe Venezuela es porque se organizó alrededor del contrabando de extracción contra la Guipuzcoana, que volvió ricos a los grandes cacaos que fueron los primeros financiadores de la guerra de la independencia? El problema no es el contrabando de lo que se produce, el problema es que con CADIVI el contrabando viene de lo que se importa porque ya no se puede producir nada en Venezuela. Yo te voy a decir una cosa Maduro, algo que YO SÍ SE y tu no. Libera el precio del café. Dale un subsidio ligero por quintal producido por 5 años mientras se recupera el sector. Protege las fincas de café de las invasiones y los malandros. En 10 años Venezuela estará produciendo no solamente suficiente café para su consumo, pero también empezará a exportar legítimamente. Es así de fácil, créeme.
Y ya que estamos en contrabando, te atreves a decir que el 40% de la comida se va por la frontera con Colombia. ¿Como se te ocurre chico? ¿Es que 4 de cada 10 gandolas que salen de Mariara van directo a Colombia sin que nadie se de cuenta, sin que nadie las pueda parar? ¿Te das cuentas que estás llamando gafos inútiles y/o corruptos a TODOS los guardias que se ocupan de las alcabalas en las carreteras? ¿Y si tu crees que en verdad Capriles y al oposición están detrás de eso, por que no los pones presos de una vez para que, zasssss, termine el contrabando? ¿O es que no te importa aparentar ser mas bolsa de lo que eres?
Y siguiendo con el contrabando, aquí una pregunta entre panas. ¿Hasta cuando te vas a hacer el desentendido que el contrabando existe porque la Guardia Nacional lo convirtió en su negocio redondo? ¿Tu en verdad crees que hay cientos de trochas en la frontera? Mira Nicolás, en la frontera con media docena de caminos la Guardia pasa TODO LO QUE LE DE LA GANA, sea gasolina, harina PAN, pollo o aceite Diana.
Lo peor es que te contradices. Prohíbes la exportación pero a los pocos minutos ofreces crear almacenes para venderle en divisas al precio justo lo que Colombia necesita... ¿Como es eso? ¿Es que tu crees que en verdad Colombia necesita nuestra comida? ¿No entiendes que el negocio es exportar lo producido en Colombia mientras se comen lo que importan de Venezuela subsidiado por CADIVI y ofrecido por la corrupción? En la Casa de Nariño se deben de estar retorciendo a carcajadas en el piso mismo....
Y ya que hablas de almacenes. ¿Como es eso que vas a hacer PDVALES al por mayor? ¿Y como los vas a llenar si los PDVAL minoristas ya están vacíos, y muchos cerrados? ¡Por Dios!
Claro, lo de los PDVAL al mayor y al menor es con relación a los captahuellas del racionamiento. No me voy a preocupar por eso. No vas a poder hacerlo, ni en diciembre ni nunca. El que te dice que lo va a organizar para diciembre te está estafando. Otra vez quedas EN RIDÍCULO por que se ve que hace años que no sales de compras por Caracas. Mira Nicolás, ¿tu no sabes que la CANTV está tan mala que cuando uno paga con tarjeta de débito casi siempre tiene que pasarla mas de una vez? ¿Y que aunque pase a la primera, se tarda por lo menos uno a dos minutos? ¿Y tu crees que agregándole la tremenda sobrecarga de los captahuellas va a funcionar mejor la CANTV? ¡No me j...s!
Miren, termino aquí porque ya esta claro que Nicolás batió el récord de burradas para un solo día, no tengo que agregar más. Y díganme que ya tenia el récord bien alto. Yo no se lo que le hizo el vampiro de Fidel en Cuba, pero parece que le vaciaron lo poco que le quedaba en el cerebro.
Yo entiendo muy bien que Maduro no me habla a mi. Ni a la oposición. El habla al lumpen chavista, ese lumpen embrutecido y lambúcio. El no lo creó, el no tiene la culpa que tantos de nuestros conciudadanos hayan caído tan bajo en la escala cultural. Aunque el si tiene la culpa de seguir promoviendo tanta ignorancia, tanta mentira para mantenerlos sometidos a su poder y a su corrupción. En fin, aunque consideremos la audiencia de Maduro, hoy el tipo se pasó. No tiene excusas por tanta brutalidad.
-----------------------------------------
1) Tengo que confesar algo: si bien las cadenas de Chávez las podía oír pero no ver, las de Maduro no puedo ni oírlas ni verlas de la pena ajena que me dan. O sea, cuando escribo sobre Maduro es por lo que leo. Por lo tanto leyendo las burradas de Maduro hoy no les puedo decir lo contento de haber dejado de ver la televisión venezolana desde que El Ciudadano salio. Ademas, ¿que me pierdo? ¿entretenimiento degradante? ¿noticias vacías? ¿mentiras oficiales? Díganme si fuera de Vale TV queda algo en lo cual uno pueda confiar, algo que no ofenda la inteligencia.
2) mis fuentes son El Nacional, El Periodiquito, Aporrea entre otros. Pa'que no digan...
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Maduro in Cuba, mutual ass kissing with Fidel Castro, orders clearly implied
It is kind of impressive that as I was writing on the start of rationing in Venezuela Maduro had a surprise quick trip to Cuba, our colonial master. So many messages... Let's start with the picture.
What is wrong here?
Could it be the first lady a.k.a. the "first fighter" sitting attentively demure in front whereas we would have expected either Fidel or Nicolas?
Could it be that all attendants are wearing the de rigueur white shirt of Cuban higher ranking officials?
Could it be that the house of a "revolutionary" seems rather well appointed, in the style of cozy Latin Bourgeoisie? And with modern finishes to boot.
Let's look now at the information available.
We could start with El Universal which since its recent acquisition by a mysterious owner turns out increasingly laudatory pieces over Maduro. We read that Fidel is pleased with the help sent by Venezuela to Palestine. We learn that Maduro defends Venezuelan oil interests in Cuba. How is that possible or effective is not explained. Maduro tells us that the meeting lasted 6 hours and that he found Fidel energetic and clear minded. Then again Maduro killed Chavez talking to him for about the same amount of time a very few days before he "officially" croaked.
But it gets better, after the 6 hours Fidel andMaburro Maduro went out for a field trip to see the "sembradíos, donde él personalmente atiende todos los días los proyectos agroalimentarios" planted fields, where he personally supervises everyday the agroalimentary projects. Probably Maburro Maduro tries very hard to forget the myriad of historical projects Fidel concocted, all consistently ruinous failures. Or worse, he confuses Fidel attending his garden as any retiree does as a national project. Let me remind the reader about "ubre blanca" or the "10 million tons" sugar cane (1). And we finish with a flourish as Maburro Maduro reveals that Fidel is doing deep investigation of high protein content vegetables for a green revolution of his own. I am not holding my breath, Fidel Lysenko.
Surprisingly the note from VTV, the 24/24 regime propaganda channel, is actually less syrupy, more to the point, than El Universal note... with more pictures. Go figure!
I do not need to dig further, I know what I need to know.
The surprise trip of Maduro had a clear intention: to cleanse himself from any direct association with the FMI or any FMI like measures. What is in store for Venezuela is increased scarcity as a way to control the populace, Cuba style. He got Fidel's blessing for anything he will do in the next weeks, be it gas price hike or ration cards (2). For those who naively thought that a cornered regime was about to take at least a couple of sensible reforms, there you have it. Crash landing. Whatever Maduro will do is designed to perpetuate the colonial status of Venezuela at the service of the Castro bros. Not Cuba, the Castro bros, do not get confused. You know, like Congo belonged to king Leopold and not to Belgium. With all the violence and regression that this entailed in both countries.
The only problem that Fidel has is that Maduro does not have the crazed creativity of Chavez. Maduro needs to go to Cuba so that Fidel can tell him what nincompoopy projects can distract the hoi polloi from its misery. Kind of perversely sad, you know
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1) for those who remember the 2004-2005 propaganda where Chavez aim was to get 10 million votes in 2006. Even cheating he did not get close.
2) As I pointed out the finger print scanning system is unworkable, and the more so in Venezuela's current conditions when half of the time you need to pass again and again your debit card at the cashier because the system is unstable, went down for a minute, does not connect, what not. What the scanning of finger prints announcement really meant is that the regime hopes to scare people from a finger printing system so that they will be more willing to accept a more understandable less intellectually demanding ration card. At least the chavista base which is the one that will use it for the staples they rely upon. This is a true and tested method in Cuba where awful things are announced so that people are happy that it did not turn out as bad as expected and thus more willing to accept.
What is wrong here?
Could it be the first lady a.k.a. the "first fighter" sitting attentively demure in front whereas we would have expected either Fidel or Nicolas?
Could it be that all attendants are wearing the de rigueur white shirt of Cuban higher ranking officials?
Could it be that the house of a "revolutionary" seems rather well appointed, in the style of cozy Latin Bourgeoisie? And with modern finishes to boot.
Let's look now at the information available.
We could start with El Universal which since its recent acquisition by a mysterious owner turns out increasingly laudatory pieces over Maduro. We read that Fidel is pleased with the help sent by Venezuela to Palestine. We learn that Maduro defends Venezuelan oil interests in Cuba. How is that possible or effective is not explained. Maduro tells us that the meeting lasted 6 hours and that he found Fidel energetic and clear minded. Then again Maduro killed Chavez talking to him for about the same amount of time a very few days before he "officially" croaked.
But it gets better, after the 6 hours Fidel and
Surprisingly the note from VTV, the 24/24 regime propaganda channel, is actually less syrupy, more to the point, than El Universal note... with more pictures. Go figure!
I do not need to dig further, I know what I need to know.
The surprise trip of Maduro had a clear intention: to cleanse himself from any direct association with the FMI or any FMI like measures. What is in store for Venezuela is increased scarcity as a way to control the populace, Cuba style. He got Fidel's blessing for anything he will do in the next weeks, be it gas price hike or ration cards (2). For those who naively thought that a cornered regime was about to take at least a couple of sensible reforms, there you have it. Crash landing. Whatever Maduro will do is designed to perpetuate the colonial status of Venezuela at the service of the Castro bros. Not Cuba, the Castro bros, do not get confused. You know, like Congo belonged to king Leopold and not to Belgium. With all the violence and regression that this entailed in both countries.
The only problem that Fidel has is that Maduro does not have the crazed creativity of Chavez. Maduro needs to go to Cuba so that Fidel can tell him what nincompoopy projects can distract the hoi polloi from its misery. Kind of perversely sad, you know
------------------
1) for those who remember the 2004-2005 propaganda where Chavez aim was to get 10 million votes in 2006. Even cheating he did not get close.
2) As I pointed out the finger print scanning system is unworkable, and the more so in Venezuela's current conditions when half of the time you need to pass again and again your debit card at the cashier because the system is unstable, went down for a minute, does not connect, what not. What the scanning of finger prints announcement really meant is that the regime hopes to scare people from a finger printing system so that they will be more willing to accept a more understandable less intellectually demanding ration card. At least the chavista base which is the one that will use it for the staples they rely upon. This is a true and tested method in Cuba where awful things are announced so that people are happy that it did not turn out as bad as expected and thus more willing to accept.
Maduro's regime announces official rationing for Venezuela
The economic news keep getting worse. The regime cranks up propaganda.
Nice workshop but the results are against any efficiency: rationing is announced. And we can announce fearlessly right now that the unavoidable black market will come with it.
Things must be really bad, and prospects for improvement almost nil for the regime to make it finally official that by the end of the year all supermarkets and food stores will have a finger print system to restrict what you can purchase. In short, if we are to believe the regime, if I buy 2 pounds of corn flour at store X, any other store will know about it and I will not be allowed to buy more corn flour for that week.
That from the view over here the logistics seem unworkable is irrelevant. I do not even know where the regime is going to get the currency to buy all the material it needs to equip all the stores it wishes to control.
No, what truly natters here is that the regime has taken finally an economic decision: controls will not be eased on the economy, real long term market solutions will not take place. As a consequence utmost centralization and control will proceed, with the poverty spread that comes along. Forget about devaluation, increase the price of gas, release some exchange controls to improve at least production of food. Here, we are going to use the few dollars available to buy a subsistence food system for all. After all if you cannot buy a car why should you worry about the price of gas? If you cannot afford travel, why should you care about which airlines fly to Venezuela? If you cannot afford Foie Gras and Salmon, why worry about corn flour being rationed to you?
And if you have any doubts about my words look at other bits of news.
The health sector is demanding a humanitarian emergency because medical supplies are not arriving and stocks are now depleted. The regime merely replies that they are overreacting even though you only need to visit the nearest pharmacy and listen to attendants tell a third of patrons "we do not have this one". But of course, one thing is to ration food, another thing is to ration medicine...
If food scarcity is a problem, other items are also missing. Toilet paper may be back, but look for shampoo or deodorant. Tooth paste is also back but gone is soap.
But even if you do not look at "material" issues as the ones described above, you will also observe that services are decreasing fast across the country. The main responsibility for this is the labor law decreed to help Chavez reelection in 2012. The law already nonviable in times of normally dysfunctional economy is now simply inapplicable in service sectors. As such a lot of business are reducing hours, reducing services and thus making our already hard lives more miserable.
Addendum
I retweeted this a couple of days ago and I think it is appropriate to add it here. It is from the Mercal in San Felipe if memory serves me well. Though I never saw it from above so I could be wrong. But does it matter? This is now a daily occurrence in most Mercal of Venezuela.
 |
| WORK SHOP: Maximum Socialist Efficacy (New economic Order) |
Things must be really bad, and prospects for improvement almost nil for the regime to make it finally official that by the end of the year all supermarkets and food stores will have a finger print system to restrict what you can purchase. In short, if we are to believe the regime, if I buy 2 pounds of corn flour at store X, any other store will know about it and I will not be allowed to buy more corn flour for that week.
That from the view over here the logistics seem unworkable is irrelevant. I do not even know where the regime is going to get the currency to buy all the material it needs to equip all the stores it wishes to control.
No, what truly natters here is that the regime has taken finally an economic decision: controls will not be eased on the economy, real long term market solutions will not take place. As a consequence utmost centralization and control will proceed, with the poverty spread that comes along. Forget about devaluation, increase the price of gas, release some exchange controls to improve at least production of food. Here, we are going to use the few dollars available to buy a subsistence food system for all. After all if you cannot buy a car why should you worry about the price of gas? If you cannot afford travel, why should you care about which airlines fly to Venezuela? If you cannot afford Foie Gras and Salmon, why worry about corn flour being rationed to you?
And if you have any doubts about my words look at other bits of news.
The health sector is demanding a humanitarian emergency because medical supplies are not arriving and stocks are now depleted. The regime merely replies that they are overreacting even though you only need to visit the nearest pharmacy and listen to attendants tell a third of patrons "we do not have this one". But of course, one thing is to ration food, another thing is to ration medicine...
If food scarcity is a problem, other items are also missing. Toilet paper may be back, but look for shampoo or deodorant. Tooth paste is also back but gone is soap.
But even if you do not look at "material" issues as the ones described above, you will also observe that services are decreasing fast across the country. The main responsibility for this is the labor law decreed to help Chavez reelection in 2012. The law already nonviable in times of normally dysfunctional economy is now simply inapplicable in service sectors. As such a lot of business are reducing hours, reducing services and thus making our already hard lives more miserable.
Addendum
I retweeted this a couple of days ago and I think it is appropriate to add it here. It is from the Mercal in San Felipe if memory serves me well. Though I never saw it from above so I could be wrong. But does it matter? This is now a daily occurrence in most Mercal of Venezuela.
Distributing scarcity: the daily trials to get food at regime's distribution centers. pic.twitter.com/F7BzgagIrf @Yusnaby @ElPoliTwico
— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) August 20, 2014Saturday, August 16, 2014
I cannot possibly care less about Ferguson
I would not have heard about Ferguson if it were not for the 24/24 CNN coverage after the 24/24 coverage of the Malaysia plane shot down. CNN needs such stuff to free itself regularly from coverage that ensnares it and makes it sound ridiculous.
But it really does matter what CNN does, outside the US people do not give a shit about Ferguson. Well, maybe not; they cover it among the news, news that CNN seems only to eager to avoid so as to dedicate to navel gazing in Missouri.
This year we commemorate the start of WWI in 1914. D day in 1944 (twice in France as we just commemorated the landing in Provence, acknowledging all the help we got from Africans). Plus a few less momentous ---4.
We celebrate that Rosetta has met with a comet after years of planning. We are getting ready to meet with Pluto soon.
We are worried by Ebola. We are devastated by ISIS. We are clueless about Gaza.
And you are asking me to worry about a bunch of chavistas, from both sides, in Ferguson? Gimme a break! Send them all, the blacks, the liberals, the cops, the governor, the whatever to Kurdistan.
But it really does matter what CNN does, outside the US people do not give a shit about Ferguson. Well, maybe not; they cover it among the news, news that CNN seems only to eager to avoid so as to dedicate to navel gazing in Missouri.
This year we commemorate the start of WWI in 1914. D day in 1944 (twice in France as we just commemorated the landing in Provence, acknowledging all the help we got from Africans). Plus a few less momentous ---4.
We celebrate that Rosetta has met with a comet after years of planning. We are getting ready to meet with Pluto soon.
We are worried by Ebola. We are devastated by ISIS. We are clueless about Gaza.
And you are asking me to worry about a bunch of chavistas, from both sides, in Ferguson? Gimme a break! Send them all, the blacks, the liberals, the cops, the governor, the whatever to Kurdistan.
Friday, August 15, 2014
Citgo se va a convertir en mierda
Me van a tener que disculpar la intensa vulgaridad de este escrito pero es que no creo que haya otra manera de que la gente entienda.
Si el gobierno logra vender Citgo esto es lo que pasará.
Voy a asumir que por una vez no habrá corrupción y que toda, TODA la plata que vamos a recibir por CITGO la vamos a usar para el bien del "pueblo". Pues veamos como sale la ganancia en la comida.
Digamos que el gobierno logra conseguir 10 millardos de dolares por Citgo. Vamos a ser generosos y asumir que el gobierno lo cambia a SICAD 1, a 12. Tendremos 10 * 12 = 120 millardos de bolivares. Somos, digamos, 30 millones de venezolanos. Por lo tanto a cada uno nos tocaría:
120 000 000 000 / 30 000 000 = 4 000 bolivares, POR PERSONA.
Ahora tomemos una familia promedio de 5 personas (Mama, Papa, hijo, hija, algún recogido/a). A ellos les tocaría un gran total de 20 000 bolívares.
Vamos a asumir que esa familia come solo harina PAN (que milagrosamente consigue), aceite Vatel vegetal (otro milagro), Diablitos, margarina, sal, cilantro, y un pollito semanal. ¡Ah! Y las siempre saludables colas gaseosas que están volviendo al país en un campo de diabéticos. ¿Cuanto es ese mercado semanal? ¿2 500 incluyendo el papel tualé?
En otras palabras nos vamos a comer Citgo en 20 000 / 2 500 = 8, OCHO semanas de comida de bajo valor nutricional.
O sea, por si todavía no me entendieron bien, si el gobierno vende Citgo y la reparte con igualdad, nos vamos a comer y cagar Citgo en 8 semanas máximo.
¿Y después de Citgo que vamos a vender para comer? ¿El Culo?
¿No se, digo yo, ya no seria tiempo que la oposición y el dentro del mismo chavismo ya haya gente que lance el grito al cielo de una buena vez?
¿Tan inmorales nos hemos vuelto todos que vamos a dejar que esa venta ocurra, con tal que nos tiren una bolsista de Mercal por unas semanas más?
Si el gobierno logra vender Citgo esto es lo que pasará.
Voy a asumir que por una vez no habrá corrupción y que toda, TODA la plata que vamos a recibir por CITGO la vamos a usar para el bien del "pueblo". Pues veamos como sale la ganancia en la comida.
Digamos que el gobierno logra conseguir 10 millardos de dolares por Citgo. Vamos a ser generosos y asumir que el gobierno lo cambia a SICAD 1, a 12. Tendremos 10 * 12 = 120 millardos de bolivares. Somos, digamos, 30 millones de venezolanos. Por lo tanto a cada uno nos tocaría:
120 000 000 000 / 30 000 000 = 4 000 bolivares, POR PERSONA.
Ahora tomemos una familia promedio de 5 personas (Mama, Papa, hijo, hija, algún recogido/a). A ellos les tocaría un gran total de 20 000 bolívares.
Vamos a asumir que esa familia come solo harina PAN (que milagrosamente consigue), aceite Vatel vegetal (otro milagro), Diablitos, margarina, sal, cilantro, y un pollito semanal. ¡Ah! Y las siempre saludables colas gaseosas que están volviendo al país en un campo de diabéticos. ¿Cuanto es ese mercado semanal? ¿2 500 incluyendo el papel tualé?En otras palabras nos vamos a comer Citgo en 20 000 / 2 500 = 8, OCHO semanas de comida de bajo valor nutricional.
8
O sea, por si todavía no me entendieron bien, si el gobierno vende Citgo y la reparte con igualdad, nos vamos a comer y cagar Citgo en 8 semanas máximo.
¿Y después de Citgo que vamos a vender para comer? ¿El Culo?
¿No se, digo yo, ya no seria tiempo que la oposición y el dentro del mismo chavismo ya haya gente que lance el grito al cielo de una buena vez?
¿Tan inmorales nos hemos vuelto todos que vamos a dejar que esa venta ocurra, con tal que nos tiren una bolsista de Mercal por unas semanas más?
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Why is the Venezuelan regime so intent in making the trial of Leopoldo Lopez such a travesty?
It is common knowledge in Venezuela AND now overseas that the judicial system of Venezuela is a farce, a mere tool of the executive to get away with whatever it needs to get done. In Venezuela all political cases and all cases against the state are decided at the convenience of the executive branch which will allow only an extremely rare "victory" of third parties when that one may serve a given side within the regime apparatus against other factions.
In short, when you fall into the hands of the regime judicial machinery you know that the final verdict, if it ever comes, will be a political decision. We are ALL potential political prisoners to be disposed of at will. This is the most powerful tool chavismo has to try to control opposition: those who do not have the nerve flee the country; those who dare to resist end up like Judge Afiuni or Leopoldo Lopez, poster victims to scare away potential protesters.
And yet, in spite of the gloomy assessment written above, the Lopez "show trial" is reaching new and unnecessary levels. Why?
I will pass on the piped up reasons to arrest Lopez: on the show that that arrest was with Diosdado Cabello accompanying Lopez to court; on the multiple and constant vexations that Lopez has suffered in jail; on him even being roughed up in his cell by masked goons. No, let's look at today's court ruling to make my point.
Today was one of the infrequent sessions of Lopez trial. The regime is doing its utmost to delay and delay that trial. Today the only matter at hand was to hear the decision of whether judge Susana Barreiros would allow the defense to present its evidence. That is right, in a previous session that judge, whose name will join the extended infamy list of those who will go to trial when the regime leaves, had decided that the defense had no valid evidence to present. The defense of course appealed and today the judge ratified her previous decision.
Let me make that clear for the reader: the defense will not be allowed to present its evidence nor its witnesses. The only evidence and witnesses that will be allowed in court are the ones from the prosecution. The defense, we hope, will be only able to cross examine that evidence. Since we know that Venezuelan judges under chavismo can silence cross examination as they want, there you have it. Of course, I am sure that as the trial moves on the judge may allow the defense an item here, an item there, just to pretend that a trial did take place, but it is not going to fool anyone. It is also true that in any serious trial the judges can dismiss useless evidence such as the nephew of the accused selling boy scout cookies as a character reference, but this is not the case here. What is going on here is outright denial of justice, it is a show trial, a kangaroo court, a pre-ordained execution.
Why is the regime taking such an international risk with a figure that has already won in international courts sentences establishing that the regime was unfair towards him?
There are several possible explanations.
The first one, that I wrote on June 11 "I propose that Lopez is Diosdado Cabello prisoner, one of his trump cards to use against the regime as well as against the opposition. " is still valid and explains at least the delays and the judicial travesty: Cabello needs to play the Lopez card when the timing is good for him. A mickey mouse trial is even good, in a perverse way, as it may speed up a Lopez release by denouncing judicial prevarication!
But that does not explain the abuse going to to the point of denying even minimal defense evidence! Thus my second reason is that Lopez is "also" a hostage of the harsh left that truly wants him condemned at all costs. They want that because they want Cabello deprived of a trump card. They want that because they need to prove that this is a real revolution.
And yet the meanness of it all cannot quite be explained by these two reasons. After all, let's not forget the harsh treatment of Lopez, who is often denied visit from his children, who has been beaten up. There is a third reason: Chavismo truly hates Lopez. Why such hate? Because Lopez is all what they are not, cannot be, cannot even have their children be. Leopoldo Lopez is educated, civilized, able, successful on his own, and a relative of Bolivar to boot, but not of the Bolivar invented by Chavez, the real Bolivar, the one from the history books that may be burned in Venezuela but that will remain in existence elsewhere to come back to Venezuela when the time is right to expose the Chavez fraud.
In short chavismo cannot forget and less forgive Lopez to have beaten chavismo at its own game, to have won overseas against the regime, to have created the best organized political party in Venezuela, without the resources from the state that are abundant to the PSUV but apparently never enough to ensure some coherence and even less loyalty. Lopez is a constant mirror where chavismo sees its own miserable nature. And thus I am starting to fear for Lopez life. This could simply get out of hand, even for Cabello.
In short, when you fall into the hands of the regime judicial machinery you know that the final verdict, if it ever comes, will be a political decision. We are ALL potential political prisoners to be disposed of at will. This is the most powerful tool chavismo has to try to control opposition: those who do not have the nerve flee the country; those who dare to resist end up like Judge Afiuni or Leopoldo Lopez, poster victims to scare away potential protesters.
And yet, in spite of the gloomy assessment written above, the Lopez "show trial" is reaching new and unnecessary levels. Why?
I will pass on the piped up reasons to arrest Lopez: on the show that that arrest was with Diosdado Cabello accompanying Lopez to court; on the multiple and constant vexations that Lopez has suffered in jail; on him even being roughed up in his cell by masked goons. No, let's look at today's court ruling to make my point.
Today was one of the infrequent sessions of Lopez trial. The regime is doing its utmost to delay and delay that trial. Today the only matter at hand was to hear the decision of whether judge Susana Barreiros would allow the defense to present its evidence. That is right, in a previous session that judge, whose name will join the extended infamy list of those who will go to trial when the regime leaves, had decided that the defense had no valid evidence to present. The defense of course appealed and today the judge ratified her previous decision.
Let me make that clear for the reader: the defense will not be allowed to present its evidence nor its witnesses. The only evidence and witnesses that will be allowed in court are the ones from the prosecution. The defense, we hope, will be only able to cross examine that evidence. Since we know that Venezuelan judges under chavismo can silence cross examination as they want, there you have it. Of course, I am sure that as the trial moves on the judge may allow the defense an item here, an item there, just to pretend that a trial did take place, but it is not going to fool anyone. It is also true that in any serious trial the judges can dismiss useless evidence such as the nephew of the accused selling boy scout cookies as a character reference, but this is not the case here. What is going on here is outright denial of justice, it is a show trial, a kangaroo court, a pre-ordained execution.
Why is the regime taking such an international risk with a figure that has already won in international courts sentences establishing that the regime was unfair towards him?
There are several possible explanations.
The first one, that I wrote on June 11 "I propose that Lopez is Diosdado Cabello prisoner, one of his trump cards to use against the regime as well as against the opposition. " is still valid and explains at least the delays and the judicial travesty: Cabello needs to play the Lopez card when the timing is good for him. A mickey mouse trial is even good, in a perverse way, as it may speed up a Lopez release by denouncing judicial prevarication!
But that does not explain the abuse going to to the point of denying even minimal defense evidence! Thus my second reason is that Lopez is "also" a hostage of the harsh left that truly wants him condemned at all costs. They want that because they want Cabello deprived of a trump card. They want that because they need to prove that this is a real revolution.
And yet the meanness of it all cannot quite be explained by these two reasons. After all, let's not forget the harsh treatment of Lopez, who is often denied visit from his children, who has been beaten up. There is a third reason: Chavismo truly hates Lopez. Why such hate? Because Lopez is all what they are not, cannot be, cannot even have their children be. Leopoldo Lopez is educated, civilized, able, successful on his own, and a relative of Bolivar to boot, but not of the Bolivar invented by Chavez, the real Bolivar, the one from the history books that may be burned in Venezuela but that will remain in existence elsewhere to come back to Venezuela when the time is right to expose the Chavez fraud.
In short chavismo cannot forget and less forgive Lopez to have beaten chavismo at its own game, to have won overseas against the regime, to have created the best organized political party in Venezuela, without the resources from the state that are abundant to the PSUV but apparently never enough to ensure some coherence and even less loyalty. Lopez is a constant mirror where chavismo sees its own miserable nature. And thus I am starting to fear for Lopez life. This could simply get out of hand, even for Cabello.
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Positions
Since I have a hard time discussing Venezuelan stuff, I might as well take the opportunity to discuss current world issues so I can get into way more trouble than I am already in.
Gaza
Although quite aware of Israeli abuses, in particular the intractable "colon" policy of unjustified expansion, on this one I am squarely on Israel side.
If Israel has done heavy bombing it really had little choice. Hamas has not hesitated to spend and undue amount of foreign aid to build a network of tunnels and purchasing weapons for a war it cannot win, instead of using that help to improve the lot of Gaza denizens. That the people of Gaza voted for Hamas a few years ago is no excuse, just as the people of Venezuela voting for Chavez is no excuse for the disaster falling today over Venezuela. People vote on gut reaction and then they do not want to pay the consequences.
I am also observing that this current war has unleashed a wave of antisemitism from the left. That is right, in today's world the most antisemitic folks seem to come from the radical left than from the radical right. There is no clearer evidence than to look for the track record of those defending Hamas today: where are the massive anti Assad protests? Where is the massive anti ISIS protests? Is it OK for Arab to do Arab but not OK when non Arab is involved ? You may change "Arab" for "Muslim" or equivalent as you please, the point remains the same.
I am sorry if I offend anyone with the next sentence. From this corner, the clash of civilizations comes from the Muslim world and I am waiting for the moderate, educated, civilized ones to take a stand. I know they exist, I know they are many, but I am not holding my breath.
As for my Jewish friends I apologize sincerely for the antisemitism that is flourishing in chavista ranks these days. Please, be assured that they are still a minority in Venezuela and I am sure a minority inside chavismo. This is not a native phenomenon, this has been imported by Chavez for strategic Cuban reasons. More crimes to be put on the Castro murderers when the day of reckoning comes.
ISIS and Iraq
It is a sin to even have to discuss the horror that we are seeing in Northern Iraq, an horror that I feel would have happened with or without the Iraq war. An horror that was created from Syria when the cowardly West had no problem letting Assad massacre its people because he had no oil and they surely did not want to confront Putin over Syria. I lay squarely the current massacre of Christians and other religious minorities in Northern Iraq at Putin's feet. He should have known better instead of being worried at getting his second grade weaponry paid in full.
Ukraine
And talking of Putin leads us to Ukraine, of course. My position there is less clear cut. In Ukraine there are ethnic from one or the other side speaking native the language of one or the other side, languages that are not that different to begin with. Plus a failed revolution we all rooted for. Political mistakes, like the ones we did in Venezuela, are always paid at some point.
This being said, I was not sanguine at Crimea going to Russia, though anyone should be sanguine at the way it was done. There are enough historical reasons to have forced Ukraine to accept a referendum on Crimea, but there are not enough historical reasons to accept Putin taking over Crimea because he just said so.
Then again the West did not want to boycott Sotchi over Putin anti gay laws on top of his censorship, repression and what not. We got what we deserved.
The only true strategic need for Putin is access to the Black Sea, this come from Peter the Great of which Putin is a mere under par imitator. But the need exists.
Many mistakes were made such a rushing a presidential election without giving the time to the East to organize itself after the lost of their man in Kiev. Putin was not going to miss that.
But everything considered, Putin is a dictator and he must be stopped before he takes us to a new Munich version. That Putin's friends are among the most unsavory rulers of the world does not stop apologists that should know better. Putin, like Chavez did, thrives on transgression and will never stop doing so.
Gaza
Although quite aware of Israeli abuses, in particular the intractable "colon" policy of unjustified expansion, on this one I am squarely on Israel side.
If Israel has done heavy bombing it really had little choice. Hamas has not hesitated to spend and undue amount of foreign aid to build a network of tunnels and purchasing weapons for a war it cannot win, instead of using that help to improve the lot of Gaza denizens. That the people of Gaza voted for Hamas a few years ago is no excuse, just as the people of Venezuela voting for Chavez is no excuse for the disaster falling today over Venezuela. People vote on gut reaction and then they do not want to pay the consequences.
I am also observing that this current war has unleashed a wave of antisemitism from the left. That is right, in today's world the most antisemitic folks seem to come from the radical left than from the radical right. There is no clearer evidence than to look for the track record of those defending Hamas today: where are the massive anti Assad protests? Where is the massive anti ISIS protests? Is it OK for Arab to do Arab but not OK when non Arab is involved ? You may change "Arab" for "Muslim" or equivalent as you please, the point remains the same.
I am sorry if I offend anyone with the next sentence. From this corner, the clash of civilizations comes from the Muslim world and I am waiting for the moderate, educated, civilized ones to take a stand. I know they exist, I know they are many, but I am not holding my breath.
As for my Jewish friends I apologize sincerely for the antisemitism that is flourishing in chavista ranks these days. Please, be assured that they are still a minority in Venezuela and I am sure a minority inside chavismo. This is not a native phenomenon, this has been imported by Chavez for strategic Cuban reasons. More crimes to be put on the Castro murderers when the day of reckoning comes.
ISIS and Iraq
It is a sin to even have to discuss the horror that we are seeing in Northern Iraq, an horror that I feel would have happened with or without the Iraq war. An horror that was created from Syria when the cowardly West had no problem letting Assad massacre its people because he had no oil and they surely did not want to confront Putin over Syria. I lay squarely the current massacre of Christians and other religious minorities in Northern Iraq at Putin's feet. He should have known better instead of being worried at getting his second grade weaponry paid in full.
Ukraine
And talking of Putin leads us to Ukraine, of course. My position there is less clear cut. In Ukraine there are ethnic from one or the other side speaking native the language of one or the other side, languages that are not that different to begin with. Plus a failed revolution we all rooted for. Political mistakes, like the ones we did in Venezuela, are always paid at some point.
This being said, I was not sanguine at Crimea going to Russia, though anyone should be sanguine at the way it was done. There are enough historical reasons to have forced Ukraine to accept a referendum on Crimea, but there are not enough historical reasons to accept Putin taking over Crimea because he just said so.
Then again the West did not want to boycott Sotchi over Putin anti gay laws on top of his censorship, repression and what not. We got what we deserved.
The only true strategic need for Putin is access to the Black Sea, this come from Peter the Great of which Putin is a mere under par imitator. But the need exists.
Many mistakes were made such a rushing a presidential election without giving the time to the East to organize itself after the lost of their man in Kiev. Putin was not going to miss that.
But everything considered, Putin is a dictator and he must be stopped before he takes us to a new Munich version. That Putin's friends are among the most unsavory rulers of the world does not stop apologists that should know better. Putin, like Chavez did, thrives on transgression and will never stop doing so.
Monday, August 11, 2014
Maduro, the self proclaimed "worker workers's president" represses harshly workers
Chalk a new point for the repression of the regime. Today it took its gloves off to repress the steel workers of SIDOR in Puerto Ordaz who are getting tired of the government delaying tactics for a labor pact. So the Nazional Guard, well trained from its repression against civilians and students attacked the steel workers, injured a couple, destroyed several of their cars, etc... Just to prove who is the head honcho here. Nowhere better to go for details but Aporrea, the chavista portal, the last place where the radical left has still a voice and where Marea Socialista criticizes the event better than what I could possibly do.
This being said, I have no sympathy for the steel workers though I condemn the repression they were subjected to. Why? You may ask. In short:
SIDOR was privatized by the government at great expense before Chavez came to power. The state created company had for a while worked out well enough but with time, like the decadence and corruption of the last years before Chavez, it had become a white elephant that could not be managed anymore.
Chavez could not tolerate that and even though the new company, with owners from Argentina, made a profit, produced more and more steel and even had part of its stock owned by the workers. So, in the fat years of Chavez he decided to retake SIDOR anyway and of course the workers cheered the louder they could. Now they are being repressed.
See, they cannot get a "contrato colectivo" (collective bargaining), they have basically being spoiled from the stock they owned, they got much worse bosses than what they were used to, and corruption has dropped dramatically steel production while a useless bloated bureaucracy has gotten in place and is defending its privileges. Nothing unpredictable in a state enterprise of a socialist system. But it gets worse and that is where I abandon them to their fate. See, Bolivar state where SIDOR is has gotten one of the most corrupt generals of Chavez as a governor and these creeps have been protesting him again and again, have threatened Chavez himself, and yet, when voting comes, a few promises and all of these creeps again and again voted for the chavista candidates. Well, Maduro did not make it but Chavez did in 2012 with 54%.
That is, they have tried to blackmailed Rangel and Chavez at election time and still they have been screwed more than once and now they are upset. And since Maduro lost and Rangel did not get 50%+ last time, well, there you have it, violent protests and violent repression. Triggered by insistent rumors that SIDOR will be sold to Chinese interests bringing Chinese workers to Bolivar. Rumors believable of course as the regime is preparing to sell everything (Citgo anyone?) to get fresh cash and survive some more to loot some more.
I am sorry but I am going to sit this one down, watching from afar how the revolution devours its own children. As far as I am concerned SIDOR is lost and might as well have the Chinese take over it.
Meanwhile Maduro proves once again that he is a nobody, not even capable to stop repression or order it (Aporrea asks the question to whom in fact ordered today's repression). The country keeps its slow slide into anarchy.
This being said, I have no sympathy for the steel workers though I condemn the repression they were subjected to. Why? You may ask. In short:
SIDOR was privatized by the government at great expense before Chavez came to power. The state created company had for a while worked out well enough but with time, like the decadence and corruption of the last years before Chavez, it had become a white elephant that could not be managed anymore.
Chavez could not tolerate that and even though the new company, with owners from Argentina, made a profit, produced more and more steel and even had part of its stock owned by the workers. So, in the fat years of Chavez he decided to retake SIDOR anyway and of course the workers cheered the louder they could. Now they are being repressed.
See, they cannot get a "contrato colectivo" (collective bargaining), they have basically being spoiled from the stock they owned, they got much worse bosses than what they were used to, and corruption has dropped dramatically steel production while a useless bloated bureaucracy has gotten in place and is defending its privileges. Nothing unpredictable in a state enterprise of a socialist system. But it gets worse and that is where I abandon them to their fate. See, Bolivar state where SIDOR is has gotten one of the most corrupt generals of Chavez as a governor and these creeps have been protesting him again and again, have threatened Chavez himself, and yet, when voting comes, a few promises and all of these creeps again and again voted for the chavista candidates. Well, Maduro did not make it but Chavez did in 2012 with 54%.
That is, they have tried to blackmailed Rangel and Chavez at election time and still they have been screwed more than once and now they are upset. And since Maduro lost and Rangel did not get 50%+ last time, well, there you have it, violent protests and violent repression. Triggered by insistent rumors that SIDOR will be sold to Chinese interests bringing Chinese workers to Bolivar. Rumors believable of course as the regime is preparing to sell everything (Citgo anyone?) to get fresh cash and survive some more to loot some more.
I am sorry but I am going to sit this one down, watching from afar how the revolution devours its own children. As far as I am concerned SIDOR is lost and might as well have the Chinese take over it.
Meanwhile Maduro proves once again that he is a nobody, not even capable to stop repression or order it (Aporrea asks the question to whom in fact ordered today's repression). The country keeps its slow slide into anarchy.
Carta económica a Nicolás Maburro Maduro (segunda)
Hola Nicolás
Soy yo otra vez. Como la ultima vez fui duro contigo esta vez te escribo para ayudarte porque lo necesitas. Es que mira, no logras decidir un carajo, sea aumentar el precio de la gasolina, sea ajustar el cambio, y entonces amenazas empresas y para rematar cierras la frontera con Colombia disque para parar el contrabando. Mira esos dos Tweets abajo:
Por lo tanto te escribo para darte un plan económico sencillo que de repente te salve el pescuezo que te lo quieren cortar los propios chavistas mucho más que la oposición. Seamos sinceros: a 500 bolos el tanque yo si sigo manejando pero tus electores bolsas no podrán. Haz esas tres cosas y veras ya como mejora la situación.
Aumento de la gasolina:
Muy sencillo. Le explicas al país que la gasolina hay que pagarla por lo menos al costo. Deja que la oposición grite lo que quiera, tu te estas salvando de algo peor. Dile al chavismo que van a empezar a 1 bolívar por litro. Que cada mes se va a aumentar 0,25 hasta que se llegue al precio de costo puesto en gasolinera mas el 10% para mantener la gasolinera y arreglar los huecos en las carreteras. Publica cada mes el precio de producción de gasolina en Venezuela para que la gente sepa cual es la meta. Explícale a la gente que lo que encarece el pasaje no es la gasolina sino la falta de repuesto y que si no tienes que subsidiar mas la gasolina habrá mas plata para repuestos y pagar mejores unidades de transporte, el día que la gasolina se venda a costo. Mientras va subiendo el precio tienes tiempo de demonstrar que eso es verdad. ¡La transición, pues! ¿O no puedes?
La unificación cambiaria:
Es verdad, el bolívar debería estar a por lo menos 20-25. Pero si lo pones mañana a ese precio el país se te tranca, todas las empresas quiebran y Dios te agarre confesado si no tienes suficientes dolares encaletados para comprarle la comida a todos. Empieza fácil: "unifica" el SICAD 1 con el 6,3. Ponlos, por ejemplo, a 11 los dos. Ya va a ser un coñazo pero eso se puede manejar si Mercal funciona. Y déjate de cuentos con el SICAD 2: ponlo en subasta libre "para los locos" y subasta 100 millones de los verdes semanales, sea cual sea el precio que tenga. Pasa de una vez al SICAD 2 los viajes, los celulares, los carros, los repuestos, el maquillaje, la caña, todas esas cosas. Al nuevo cambio solo la comida, la materia prima y los fármacos. Mas nada.
Como para la gasolina anuncia que cada dos meses vas a revisar el asunto y asi cada dos meses le subes 1 bolo al cambio oficial. Vas a ver, en un año, dos máximo, puedes emparejar mas o menos el SICAD 2 y tu cambio oficial. Con eso terminas la unificación.
La LOTTT
En vez de estar amenazando las empresas para que los trabajadores zánganos se las cojan, dale orden a la Inspectoría del Trabajo que sea mas flexible con los despidos. Dile que acepten fácil los "despidos injustificados" y que se paguen doble y ya. Pero que los acepte. Si quieres hasta una multa extra le pones a las empresas por cada despido, pero deja que boten los zánganos que están no solamente afectando la producción nacional pero que también impiden que las empresas se arriesguen a contratar gente que si quiere trabajar y producir. No te pido que cambies la LOTT, solo deja que la Inspectoría permita botar los malandros.
Eso es todo Nicolás. Si haces esas tres cosas te garantizo que en un año ya se ven las mejoras en el país. Si no haces por lo menos eso te digo una cosa: me voy a sentar tranquilito viendo CNN en la tele reportando como la gente de Catia bajó a quemar a Miraflores. No voy a tener que hacer nada, ni salir a marchar, la propia gente tuya es la que te va a guindar. Bueno, es muy posible que me guinden antes que a ti, pero tu vienes justo detrás de mi en la cola. No te hagas ilusiones.
Me despido. Ya sabes, si necesitas mas consejos me avisas. Siempre dispuesto a ayudarte para evitar pasar mas penas ajenas contigo porque sinceramente, nos volviste el hazmereir del continente.
Soy yo otra vez. Como la ultima vez fui duro contigo esta vez te escribo para ayudarte porque lo necesitas. Es que mira, no logras decidir un carajo, sea aumentar el precio de la gasolina, sea ajustar el cambio, y entonces amenazas empresas y para rematar cierras la frontera con Colombia disque para parar el contrabando. Mira esos dos Tweets abajo:
Quien necesita mas pruebas contundentes (Casa del PSUV en Laguna de Sinamaica) o "Cierres Nocturnos" de Fronteras ?? pic.twitter.com/pFrKSMRNtY
— GerardoHernandezM. (@ghernandezmoler) August 10, 2014HOY. 2 PM. Así pasa por el Rio Limón el contrabando de gasolina. Pa que van a cerrar la frontera en la noche? pic.twitter.com/6fQ9DffYwm
— Juan Pablo Guanipa (@JuanPGuanipa) August 10, 2014Por lo tanto te escribo para darte un plan económico sencillo que de repente te salve el pescuezo que te lo quieren cortar los propios chavistas mucho más que la oposición. Seamos sinceros: a 500 bolos el tanque yo si sigo manejando pero tus electores bolsas no podrán. Haz esas tres cosas y veras ya como mejora la situación.
Aumento de la gasolina:
Muy sencillo. Le explicas al país que la gasolina hay que pagarla por lo menos al costo. Deja que la oposición grite lo que quiera, tu te estas salvando de algo peor. Dile al chavismo que van a empezar a 1 bolívar por litro. Que cada mes se va a aumentar 0,25 hasta que se llegue al precio de costo puesto en gasolinera mas el 10% para mantener la gasolinera y arreglar los huecos en las carreteras. Publica cada mes el precio de producción de gasolina en Venezuela para que la gente sepa cual es la meta. Explícale a la gente que lo que encarece el pasaje no es la gasolina sino la falta de repuesto y que si no tienes que subsidiar mas la gasolina habrá mas plata para repuestos y pagar mejores unidades de transporte, el día que la gasolina se venda a costo. Mientras va subiendo el precio tienes tiempo de demonstrar que eso es verdad. ¡La transición, pues! ¿O no puedes?
La unificación cambiaria:
Es verdad, el bolívar debería estar a por lo menos 20-25. Pero si lo pones mañana a ese precio el país se te tranca, todas las empresas quiebran y Dios te agarre confesado si no tienes suficientes dolares encaletados para comprarle la comida a todos. Empieza fácil: "unifica" el SICAD 1 con el 6,3. Ponlos, por ejemplo, a 11 los dos. Ya va a ser un coñazo pero eso se puede manejar si Mercal funciona. Y déjate de cuentos con el SICAD 2: ponlo en subasta libre "para los locos" y subasta 100 millones de los verdes semanales, sea cual sea el precio que tenga. Pasa de una vez al SICAD 2 los viajes, los celulares, los carros, los repuestos, el maquillaje, la caña, todas esas cosas. Al nuevo cambio solo la comida, la materia prima y los fármacos. Mas nada.
Como para la gasolina anuncia que cada dos meses vas a revisar el asunto y asi cada dos meses le subes 1 bolo al cambio oficial. Vas a ver, en un año, dos máximo, puedes emparejar mas o menos el SICAD 2 y tu cambio oficial. Con eso terminas la unificación.
La LOTTT
En vez de estar amenazando las empresas para que los trabajadores zánganos se las cojan, dale orden a la Inspectoría del Trabajo que sea mas flexible con los despidos. Dile que acepten fácil los "despidos injustificados" y que se paguen doble y ya. Pero que los acepte. Si quieres hasta una multa extra le pones a las empresas por cada despido, pero deja que boten los zánganos que están no solamente afectando la producción nacional pero que también impiden que las empresas se arriesguen a contratar gente que si quiere trabajar y producir. No te pido que cambies la LOTT, solo deja que la Inspectoría permita botar los malandros.
Eso es todo Nicolás. Si haces esas tres cosas te garantizo que en un año ya se ven las mejoras en el país. Si no haces por lo menos eso te digo una cosa: me voy a sentar tranquilito viendo CNN en la tele reportando como la gente de Catia bajó a quemar a Miraflores. No voy a tener que hacer nada, ni salir a marchar, la propia gente tuya es la que te va a guindar. Bueno, es muy posible que me guinden antes que a ti, pero tu vienes justo detrás de mi en la cola. No te hagas ilusiones.
Me despido. Ya sabes, si necesitas mas consejos me avisas. Siempre dispuesto a ayudarte para evitar pasar mas penas ajenas contigo porque sinceramente, nos volviste el hazmereir del continente.
Carta económica a Nicolás Maburro Maduro (primera)
Hola Nicolás
Yo nunca te escribo porque es perder tiempo. Pero a veces tusrebuznos discursos son tan, pero tan fuera de tus propios cabales que tengo que hacerlo hoy, aunque sea para que nunca puedas decir en los juicios que te llegarán "no estaba escrito en ninguna parte". Y escusa no tendrás porque se sabe muy bien que en la sala situacional se la pasan leyendo todo lo que la gente dice de ti. Es más, te voy a tuitear esta carta para que no digan que tiro la piedra y escondo la mano.
Tu última ocurrencia es que los trabajadores se cojan las empresas que practican la guerra económica. No voy a insistir en eso de que para un país que necesita inversiones y producción que un presidenterebuzne diga eso es de lo último. No es que la gente este invirtiendo un carajo en Venezuela, ya se curaron de espanto sobre nosotros. Es que después de ese dislate ya se van a sentar tranquilos a espera que te vayas para el carrizo antes de pensar a invertir lo que sea por aquí. Claro, yo se muy bien que eso no se te ocurrió a ti. No se te ocurre nada bueno, y lo poco es malo. Eso viene de los chulos que te criaron en la Habana y que te pusieron en Miraflores, cual buen "Madchurian Candidate" (búscate la película). Ellos te mandaron a decir eso porque los radicales del PSUV están bravos contigo. Eso fue para que se tranquilicen un poco mientras les clavas el nuevo precio de la gasolina. Mas nada. Pero trae consecuencias.
Lo triste de este asunto, el por qué te escribo, es que quedaste como un pobreburro tipejo. No se si lo sabes pero se supone estás mandando desde fin del 2013. Durante ese tiempo mantuviste los controles de precios heredados, hiciste el "dakazo", amenazaste, pusiste la ley de precio justo, pusiste el SUNDEE, mantuviste los precios controlados anyway, etc. ¿Y eso no bastó? O sea, no se si te das cuenta pero al mandar a los trabajadores chaburros chavistas a cogerse las empresas (porque los otros no son tan locos como los tuyos y no lo harán) estás confesando que fracasaste como presidente, que nadie te para, que lo que tu hiciste a lo más sirvió para castigar matraquear más duro a los pocos que todavía quedan trabajando en este infierno.
REPITO: el sábado confesaste que fracasaste y/o que no tienes niputa idea de lo que estas haciendo en Miraflores. Porque si en verdad tuvieses idea de tu rol tu mismo hubieses ido a tomar la Polar, personalmente, teniendo las bolas de establecer el comunismo acá ¡Y ya! Y Lorenzito en la celda la lado de Leo.
Pero no, eres un cobarde y quieres mandar los trabajadoresrojos flojos y zánganos a matarse con los trabajadores de verdad, que todavía quedan algunos, ¡gracias a Dios que todavía hay!
Pero aquí entre tu y yo Nicolás: y por que no empiezas por mandar los trabajadores de las empresas estatales a tomarse esas empresas y sacar esa dirección corrupta que tienen, ¡que esos si te están haciendo una guerra económica de verdad! ¿O es que la falta de cemento, de cabillas, de aceite, de harina de maíz Monaca, de leche Los Andes, etc. es culpa también de Lorenzito y sus socios?
En fin, me despido por esta vez (pronto te ayudo con sugerencias para que norebuznes metas la pata tanto en tus medidas). Disculpa que tenga tantos rayones esta carta pero la verdad es que es difícil tratar de escribirte respetuosamente como a un presidente legal (legítimo no eres, a confesión de partes por no dejar ver cuantos muertos votaron por ti en el 2013). Pero la verdad es que si quieres que se te respete empieza por respetar a los otros, y a su inteligencia: no digas mas burradas. ¿Please?
Yo nunca te escribo porque es perder tiempo. Pero a veces tus
Tu última ocurrencia es que los trabajadores se cojan las empresas que practican la guerra económica. No voy a insistir en eso de que para un país que necesita inversiones y producción que un presidente
Lo triste de este asunto, el por qué te escribo, es que quedaste como un pobre
REPITO: el sábado confesaste que fracasaste y/o que no tienes ni
Pero no, eres un cobarde y quieres mandar los trabajadores
Pero aquí entre tu y yo Nicolás: y por que no empiezas por mandar los trabajadores de las empresas estatales a tomarse esas empresas y sacar esa dirección corrupta que tienen, ¡que esos si te están haciendo una guerra económica de verdad! ¿O es que la falta de cemento, de cabillas, de aceite, de harina de maíz Monaca, de leche Los Andes, etc. es culpa también de Lorenzito y sus socios?
En fin, me despido por esta vez (pronto te ayudo con sugerencias para que no
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Venezuelan weather vanes
I suppose that I should start with an apology: a lot of important stuff has been happening in the political country and I have not covered it. The only excuse is that things are changing so fast, and so nowhere, that I was vainly hoping for a weather lull to try to figure out the direction things were taking. Alas, it'aint not happening.
The heavy sense of being adrift is permanent. Both sides of the political spectrum are at a loss as to what to do with themselves. And this is aggravated for the regime as it needs to find a way to keep ruling the country while maintaining it viable enough so that looting can go unabated. All measures, from both sides, are piece meal, expedient, often amoral, improvised, even politically rudimentary as the country is regressing not only in technology but also in political language and ideas. A home made weather vane would be more effective to give us direction.
This being said, let me take a shot at writing a rather long piece that some of you may find entertaining to read this week end if you are bored.
For chavismo it is "the price of gas, stoopid!"
The regime keeps its inner fights and used the III PSUV ideological congress to reassert the regime hold to power. No expense was barred to make sure no waves would be made by an increasingly disgruntled base who seems to be turning every day more radical.
As expected, 15 years of ideological bullshit monitored from Cuba have had their consequences. Now there is a radical left wing inside chavismo who after 15 years has such great blinders that not only they fail to see the economic problems of the country but think that the real problem is that the chavista pseudo revolution did not go far enough. For them bourgeois society should be swept away once and for all, because Venezuela can stand on its own, globalization is a myth and whatnot. Add to this that likely many are upset that their share of the loot has not covered their expectations.
As a consequence, those that indeed have benefited from chavismo, from bureaucrats ensconced in AC ministries to the infamously rich and infamously corrupt bolibourgeois, are concerned. See, the rich that the radicals see everyday at work are those new rich, not normal hard working capitalists like Lorenzo Mendoza of Polar group. And they know first hand how bad this bolibourgeois (cum drug traffickers) are.
The current post Chavez leadership senses the danger so the III PSUV congress "elections" was made with nearly 50% appointed delegates and a lot of pressure on the elected ones. As such the radicals did not get much more than 20% of the seats. And since they are themselves divided (mercifully!) they had no leverage.
But the risk of PSUV division, barely pushed back for the time being, are not the real problem of chavismo. While all of these internal struggles keep taking place, no serious economic measure are undertaken and the economy keeps deteriorating. No better example than discussing the price of gas.
This 300 ml bottle of water that I am holding in my hand reads 3.59 Bs. Plus taxes. So let's round it up to 4 Bs which is what you will pay. That is 0.63 USD at 6.3 official rate (interesting arithmetic coincidence). That puts the price of 1 liter of water at 13 Bs, rounding it of course.
I can fill up my SUV tank for around 5Bs, around 50 liters (and that takes me all through the week, by the way). So let's round up the price of gas to 0,1 Bs for a liter.
That is right, drinking bottled water costs at least 130 times more than gas in Venezuela.
Of course, the regime subsidizes such a price distortion. And this being energy, intuitively you get that this distortion affects all prices. To change this the regime should at least start cashing in the price of production of a liter of gas for your car. Internationally, and in a mood of rounding prices, let's take at 0,85 dollar the price of gas, without taxes, as it reaches the gas station. In Venezuelan Bs that would mean the cost of gas sold should be at the very least 5.4 Bs. Or, 54 times more than what it is currently costing.
Note that I use the official value of 6,3 when in fact the real value would probably settle around 40 to the dollars if all currency controls were lifted. I will let you do the math for how much the regime should indeed increase the price of gas... And yet this one is talking to bring up only to 3, which would already be 30 times more than the current prices and yet not enough to cover expenses....
In a nutshell, the story of the gas price if the best example on how 16 years of chavista outrageous populism have set us back. And gas is only one of the many problems, albeit the worse one. Price controls should be removed and real production costs for everything should be accepted. What to do? What political cost should be accepted by the regime?
And that is the real problem of the regime, it does not want to accept the political cost of the 14 years of Chavez follies.
So far, besides dithering the necessary economic measures, the regime has only tried to put the blame on anyone that came handy, even if its followers have enough logic left in their damaged brains to realize that some of these excuses are pathetic. Remember that for example the electric power outages are due to iguanas eating out electrical cables. That airlines stopped servicing Venezuela because they sent their flights to the Brazilian market for the world cup (that the planes have not come back has not been addressed). That imported food rots in harbors because there is just so much of it for "el pueblo" that just "a little bit gets lost". That the decaying infrastructure is because of capitalist climatic change and not lack of maintenance. That inflation is a conspiracy of the private sector which is the only corrupt sector that steals currency controlled by the state. Etc...
But that is not going to stop the ever worse populist maelstrom. Let's look at the gas story. Maduro went boldly to say that all the money that will be gained from price increase will be allocated to social programs. He went even as far as splitting it up in 20% shares for this or that. The only problem is that to make money out of gas he would need to sell it ABOVE production costs. And even if we were to assume that a moderate price increase would be enough to lower subsidies and free some resources for other needs, before "improving" social programs the regime needs to pay its debts to China and its debts to its providers so imports of raw material can start again and the economy restart.
I do not see any of that coming. The regime simply does not have the political strength or capital to do so. So Maduro goes Orwellian stating that it is not a gas price increase but a mere adjustment. The regime is waiting to see whether the radicals will take over and sweep away the remaining structures and finish off the country, or the pragmatic wing will use the military for repression and enforces austerity measures. After all, after the Carvajal affair they know now that they have nowhere to go, that narcostates cannot find forgiveness. A third way is only possible if the regime accepted to compromise with the opposition and return to democracy. I do not see it, sorry.
For the opposition it is unified division
If you were hoping that the country would find in front of the regime a ready, and willing, and organized opposition you would be mistaken. The time of reckoning has come and the mistakes of Capriles in not defending his victory of 2013, his mistakes in creating an ersatz referendum in 2013 that he lost, the mistake of Lopez and Machado thinking that the country was willing to follow them beyond Capriles just like that, the mistakes of a MUD that has only too many people inside compromised with sectors of the regime, etc, etc. have come home to roost. Last week the MUD finally started splitting even though they all understand that unity is the only way to evict Madruo from Miraflores. The challenge of restoring unity is pretty much the equivalent of chasing the unicorn.
To begin with, Leopoldo Lopez is still in jail and all indications are that the regime has decided to pay whatever political cost it has to pay to keep him there. Period. As long as Maduro and Cabello rule, Lopez is in jail.
Then we can follow with Maria Corina Machado's wishes to figure at all cost and that has earned her today the first ever blistering political attack she has suffered from inside the opposition, through the acid pen of Rafael Poleo in this week Zeta. His attack is uncalled for and mean. But he is right on one thing: for all her troubles and wonkish appeal Maria Corina Machado has been unable to establish a viable political organization. As such she runs on fumes and stardom. Even Chavez, who also run on fumes and stardom in 1998, had the skill of making the MAS and PPT run his campaign then, letting them believe that they would be his government. As soon as he was in office he worked at getting rid of them, something achieved within 3 years. MCM has failed so far to get the endorsement of a party that still has enough personnel to run a semi presidential campaign.
Then we can go on to Capriles who think he is the leader of the opposition but who is fading faster than what people can imagine. Capriles has been absolutely unable to bring answers, even moral answers for the consolation of his hurting electoral bases. For some he passes as a coward (undeservedly) and for others like me he has lost their trust, irremediably (and deservedly). I for one think that even if by miracle Capriles were to take over Miraflores tomorrow, he would fail. And badly.
We can keep pushing further and see that a democratic left of the opposition has started drifting away from the MUD with Henri Falcon who has started to position himself as the only transition figure that could be accepted by chavismo and by the opposition. The only thing is that he risks becoming a Kerenski that will be swept away at some point. After all he fails to even gather all of the opposition left wing around his name, or much support outside of his state of Lara.
So good ideas that had sense months ago have become mere nincompooperies. For example some talk again about constitutional assembly, or a more mysterious but dynamic sounding "congreso de ciudadanos" where we are told that all the efforts at uniting the opposition that have failed in the past will be overcome through these assemblies. If certainly it is praiseworthy to organize citizens in assemblies, be they called "congreso", the times are not for debating the sex of constitutional angels. The current reality indicates that the best to do now is to make the current constitution work out better. For all of its many flaws the 1999 chart still would be better than the current unconstitutional regime. This done we could start thinking about change or improvements.
Perspectives
I, for one, think that a division of the opposition is not necessarily a bad thing. Why?
The regime is imploding and the disaster ahead is unmanageable unless new creative ideas arise. Neither the regime nor the current structure of the opposition allows for creativity. In fact both current "leaders", Maduro and Capriles, show a definitive lack of creativity, and thus lack real influence.
The regime will split. As the PSUV and MUD are set up right now there may be no way to get an agreement because factions in each camp will block it for personal ambition and/or personal interests. But once both sides break up an agreement crossing the line is more likely. Even with the radicals that may consider in front of a crisis that they cannot control that it is better to ally with sectors of opposition so as to begin to demilitarize the narcostate before anything else can be done. I know, it sounds a little bit like black magic to suggest such ungodly alliances but remember, it is time to be creative and bold.
I will remind readers that I wrote a few weeks ago a scenario for "la salida" chavista way. Certainly after a post PSUV congress and the departure of Aveledo. that model already needs revision. But the point is still there, a group within chavismo wants out, or at least out of shared responsibility for all chavista officialdom. They only need someone in the army and/or the opposition to reach an agreement.
In fact a division within the opposition could turn to be a good thing. On one side, say, Falcon supported by AD, UNT and the like could be the deal makers with some groups inside chavismo. But on the other side, freed of political correctness of the MUD, the likes of MCM and Lopez and Ledezma could finally make a strong case for separation of powers, private property and economic wisdom. My guess is that a MUD division would fast enough get a majority winner in public opinion. At any rate, it does not matter who reaches Miraflores first, each side will soften the other and make it more creative while chavismo decides if it wants to become a democratic left or collapse into the multiple political tendencies it really is, and that only Chavez and corruption could keep in check.
The heavy sense of being adrift is permanent. Both sides of the political spectrum are at a loss as to what to do with themselves. And this is aggravated for the regime as it needs to find a way to keep ruling the country while maintaining it viable enough so that looting can go unabated. All measures, from both sides, are piece meal, expedient, often amoral, improvised, even politically rudimentary as the country is regressing not only in technology but also in political language and ideas. A home made weather vane would be more effective to give us direction.
This being said, let me take a shot at writing a rather long piece that some of you may find entertaining to read this week end if you are bored.
For chavismo it is "the price of gas, stoopid!"
The regime keeps its inner fights and used the III PSUV ideological congress to reassert the regime hold to power. No expense was barred to make sure no waves would be made by an increasingly disgruntled base who seems to be turning every day more radical.
As expected, 15 years of ideological bullshit monitored from Cuba have had their consequences. Now there is a radical left wing inside chavismo who after 15 years has such great blinders that not only they fail to see the economic problems of the country but think that the real problem is that the chavista pseudo revolution did not go far enough. For them bourgeois society should be swept away once and for all, because Venezuela can stand on its own, globalization is a myth and whatnot. Add to this that likely many are upset that their share of the loot has not covered their expectations.
As a consequence, those that indeed have benefited from chavismo, from bureaucrats ensconced in AC ministries to the infamously rich and infamously corrupt bolibourgeois, are concerned. See, the rich that the radicals see everyday at work are those new rich, not normal hard working capitalists like Lorenzo Mendoza of Polar group. And they know first hand how bad this bolibourgeois (cum drug traffickers) are.
The current post Chavez leadership senses the danger so the III PSUV congress "elections" was made with nearly 50% appointed delegates and a lot of pressure on the elected ones. As such the radicals did not get much more than 20% of the seats. And since they are themselves divided (mercifully!) they had no leverage.
But the risk of PSUV division, barely pushed back for the time being, are not the real problem of chavismo. While all of these internal struggles keep taking place, no serious economic measure are undertaken and the economy keeps deteriorating. No better example than discussing the price of gas.
This 300 ml bottle of water that I am holding in my hand reads 3.59 Bs. Plus taxes. So let's round it up to 4 Bs which is what you will pay. That is 0.63 USD at 6.3 official rate (interesting arithmetic coincidence). That puts the price of 1 liter of water at 13 Bs, rounding it of course.
I can fill up my SUV tank for around 5Bs, around 50 liters (and that takes me all through the week, by the way). So let's round up the price of gas to 0,1 Bs for a liter.
That is right, drinking bottled water costs at least 130 times more than gas in Venezuela.
Of course, the regime subsidizes such a price distortion. And this being energy, intuitively you get that this distortion affects all prices. To change this the regime should at least start cashing in the price of production of a liter of gas for your car. Internationally, and in a mood of rounding prices, let's take at 0,85 dollar the price of gas, without taxes, as it reaches the gas station. In Venezuelan Bs that would mean the cost of gas sold should be at the very least 5.4 Bs. Or, 54 times more than what it is currently costing.
Note that I use the official value of 6,3 when in fact the real value would probably settle around 40 to the dollars if all currency controls were lifted. I will let you do the math for how much the regime should indeed increase the price of gas... And yet this one is talking to bring up only to 3, which would already be 30 times more than the current prices and yet not enough to cover expenses....
In a nutshell, the story of the gas price if the best example on how 16 years of chavista outrageous populism have set us back. And gas is only one of the many problems, albeit the worse one. Price controls should be removed and real production costs for everything should be accepted. What to do? What political cost should be accepted by the regime?
And that is the real problem of the regime, it does not want to accept the political cost of the 14 years of Chavez follies.
So far, besides dithering the necessary economic measures, the regime has only tried to put the blame on anyone that came handy, even if its followers have enough logic left in their damaged brains to realize that some of these excuses are pathetic. Remember that for example the electric power outages are due to iguanas eating out electrical cables. That airlines stopped servicing Venezuela because they sent their flights to the Brazilian market for the world cup (that the planes have not come back has not been addressed). That imported food rots in harbors because there is just so much of it for "el pueblo" that just "a little bit gets lost". That the decaying infrastructure is because of capitalist climatic change and not lack of maintenance. That inflation is a conspiracy of the private sector which is the only corrupt sector that steals currency controlled by the state. Etc...
But that is not going to stop the ever worse populist maelstrom. Let's look at the gas story. Maduro went boldly to say that all the money that will be gained from price increase will be allocated to social programs. He went even as far as splitting it up in 20% shares for this or that. The only problem is that to make money out of gas he would need to sell it ABOVE production costs. And even if we were to assume that a moderate price increase would be enough to lower subsidies and free some resources for other needs, before "improving" social programs the regime needs to pay its debts to China and its debts to its providers so imports of raw material can start again and the economy restart.
I do not see any of that coming. The regime simply does not have the political strength or capital to do so. So Maduro goes Orwellian stating that it is not a gas price increase but a mere adjustment. The regime is waiting to see whether the radicals will take over and sweep away the remaining structures and finish off the country, or the pragmatic wing will use the military for repression and enforces austerity measures. After all, after the Carvajal affair they know now that they have nowhere to go, that narcostates cannot find forgiveness. A third way is only possible if the regime accepted to compromise with the opposition and return to democracy. I do not see it, sorry.
For the opposition it is unified division
If you were hoping that the country would find in front of the regime a ready, and willing, and organized opposition you would be mistaken. The time of reckoning has come and the mistakes of Capriles in not defending his victory of 2013, his mistakes in creating an ersatz referendum in 2013 that he lost, the mistake of Lopez and Machado thinking that the country was willing to follow them beyond Capriles just like that, the mistakes of a MUD that has only too many people inside compromised with sectors of the regime, etc, etc. have come home to roost. Last week the MUD finally started splitting even though they all understand that unity is the only way to evict Madruo from Miraflores. The challenge of restoring unity is pretty much the equivalent of chasing the unicorn.
To begin with, Leopoldo Lopez is still in jail and all indications are that the regime has decided to pay whatever political cost it has to pay to keep him there. Period. As long as Maduro and Cabello rule, Lopez is in jail.Then we can follow with Maria Corina Machado's wishes to figure at all cost and that has earned her today the first ever blistering political attack she has suffered from inside the opposition, through the acid pen of Rafael Poleo in this week Zeta. His attack is uncalled for and mean. But he is right on one thing: for all her troubles and wonkish appeal Maria Corina Machado has been unable to establish a viable political organization. As such she runs on fumes and stardom. Even Chavez, who also run on fumes and stardom in 1998, had the skill of making the MAS and PPT run his campaign then, letting them believe that they would be his government. As soon as he was in office he worked at getting rid of them, something achieved within 3 years. MCM has failed so far to get the endorsement of a party that still has enough personnel to run a semi presidential campaign.
Then we can go on to Capriles who think he is the leader of the opposition but who is fading faster than what people can imagine. Capriles has been absolutely unable to bring answers, even moral answers for the consolation of his hurting electoral bases. For some he passes as a coward (undeservedly) and for others like me he has lost their trust, irremediably (and deservedly). I for one think that even if by miracle Capriles were to take over Miraflores tomorrow, he would fail. And badly.
We can keep pushing further and see that a democratic left of the opposition has started drifting away from the MUD with Henri Falcon who has started to position himself as the only transition figure that could be accepted by chavismo and by the opposition. The only thing is that he risks becoming a Kerenski that will be swept away at some point. After all he fails to even gather all of the opposition left wing around his name, or much support outside of his state of Lara.
So good ideas that had sense months ago have become mere nincompooperies. For example some talk again about constitutional assembly, or a more mysterious but dynamic sounding "congreso de ciudadanos" where we are told that all the efforts at uniting the opposition that have failed in the past will be overcome through these assemblies. If certainly it is praiseworthy to organize citizens in assemblies, be they called "congreso", the times are not for debating the sex of constitutional angels. The current reality indicates that the best to do now is to make the current constitution work out better. For all of its many flaws the 1999 chart still would be better than the current unconstitutional regime. This done we could start thinking about change or improvements.
Perspectives
I, for one, think that a division of the opposition is not necessarily a bad thing. Why?
The regime is imploding and the disaster ahead is unmanageable unless new creative ideas arise. Neither the regime nor the current structure of the opposition allows for creativity. In fact both current "leaders", Maduro and Capriles, show a definitive lack of creativity, and thus lack real influence.The regime will split. As the PSUV and MUD are set up right now there may be no way to get an agreement because factions in each camp will block it for personal ambition and/or personal interests. But once both sides break up an agreement crossing the line is more likely. Even with the radicals that may consider in front of a crisis that they cannot control that it is better to ally with sectors of opposition so as to begin to demilitarize the narcostate before anything else can be done. I know, it sounds a little bit like black magic to suggest such ungodly alliances but remember, it is time to be creative and bold.
I will remind readers that I wrote a few weeks ago a scenario for "la salida" chavista way. Certainly after a post PSUV congress and the departure of Aveledo. that model already needs revision. But the point is still there, a group within chavismo wants out, or at least out of shared responsibility for all chavista officialdom. They only need someone in the army and/or the opposition to reach an agreement.
In fact a division within the opposition could turn to be a good thing. On one side, say, Falcon supported by AD, UNT and the like could be the deal makers with some groups inside chavismo. But on the other side, freed of political correctness of the MUD, the likes of MCM and Lopez and Ledezma could finally make a strong case for separation of powers, private property and economic wisdom. My guess is that a MUD division would fast enough get a majority winner in public opinion. At any rate, it does not matter who reaches Miraflores first, each side will soften the other and make it more creative while chavismo decides if it wants to become a democratic left or collapse into the multiple political tendencies it really is, and that only Chavez and corruption could keep in check.
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Open letter to Senator Mary Landrieu, of Louisiana
Dear Senator Landrieu
I am writing to you in respect of you accepting lobbying money to defend CITGO refineries in Louisiana. You have in an ill advised way blocked a US Senate bill that only aimed at putting some personal sanctions over some of the main culprits of human rights violations and drug traffic in Venezuela. Allow me to straighten you up.
First, whatever "protection" you may give Citgo, it is likely going to turn out to be a lousy investment. The dictatorial regime of Venezuela is planning to sell Citgo, to pay off the huge debts accumulated, to continue its rapacious corrupt nature, and why not, to get some more cash to buy repressive violent tools against its population. You can be assured that whenever Citgo is sold, a major adjustment plan will be needed and many jobs will be lost in Louisiana. Not to mention that Citgo today depends heavily on Venezuelan crude of low quality and thus may give up that dependency; while it gets new oil sources the new management will not have qualms in cutting down whatever needs to be cut down in Citgo.
In short, the odds of you getting plenty of egg on your face are big. It does not matter how much you may help the Venezuelan dictatorial regime, this one will drop you as it wishes, as it has betrayed whenever convenient ANY political ally it has harbored.
Second, I do hope that you are aware that you are supporting a regime that was friend with Qaddafi, that supports Assad from Syria, that is supporting Hamas without any condition, that is antisemitic, homophobic and what not. And this I mention before I would start listing all of its human rights record, its violations of all legality in Venezuela, its dictatorial nature, that Venezuela has become under Chavez and his successor the main through-way for drugs going to the United States, etc. I hope that even the dumb staffer that advised you on such a position will redo his or her homework and come to grips about the price to be payed by your reputation for a few hundred jobs in Louisiana, which do not assure reelection to begin with. Because, dear Senator, you are supporting an avowed enemy of the United States.
Third, if the above rational, logical, public knowledge only missed by your staff but well managed by Patton Boggs who cashed hundred of thousand of dollars from Citgo giving you only 75,000 (how profitable for you is that?) is not enough allow me to give you the human touch.
I have been blogging for over a decade to denounce the Chavez regime in Venezuela. My blog is well known and even brought me to the attention of major communication networks. I am not writing this to brag, I am writing to let you know that I know what I am writing about and my credibility has been gained over a decade of coherence in my analysis. This is not a miffed letter like the one that could have been fired by a miffed constituent of yours.
Right now in Venezuela I am facing a deep personal crisis because my partner of 15 years has an incurable but somewhat treatable form of cancer. I cannot describe the excruciating toil that it is in Caracas to find adequate treatment, adequate help, to bring my debilitated partner to his appointments, to be afraid that any new hospitalization may bring us to bankruptcy, etc. All of this because the public health system of "socialist" Venezuela has failed and we have been forced to take expensive and yet limited private heath coverage. And this at a time where the deep mismanagement and corruption of the country has left it without cash reserves to even import basic medical supplies (and food, and spare parts, etc.) Thus you will forgive my outrage when I learn that my government has spent 550,000 US dollars to lobby so that the corrupt officials of Venezuela could count on you to stop sanctions so that they can go to Disney World with their families this summer, or maybe for the more daring ones, Bourbon Street.
Senator, I am finishing this letter by letting you know that I am gay, Liberal, and I have even a French origin like you. In the my many years I lived in the US I did develop a strong liking to the country and its people. You do not seem to be like the people I knew and which I was intellectually close to. I lived in North Carolina when Jesse Helms was a Senator and somehow I suspect that for all the justified dislike I had for Helms, he would have never supported Venezuela today they way you are doing. Please, prove me wrong. Otherwise I will have to root for Bill Cassidy of which I know little. That is, he may be the worse homophobe from the Tea Party for all that I know, but in politics it is sometimes preferable to have an enemy you can predict than an unprincipled friend that can set you loose at any time.
It is up to you to correct your mistake. Just do it.
I am writing to you in respect of you accepting lobbying money to defend CITGO refineries in Louisiana. You have in an ill advised way blocked a US Senate bill that only aimed at putting some personal sanctions over some of the main culprits of human rights violations and drug traffic in Venezuela. Allow me to straighten you up.
First, whatever "protection" you may give Citgo, it is likely going to turn out to be a lousy investment. The dictatorial regime of Venezuela is planning to sell Citgo, to pay off the huge debts accumulated, to continue its rapacious corrupt nature, and why not, to get some more cash to buy repressive violent tools against its population. You can be assured that whenever Citgo is sold, a major adjustment plan will be needed and many jobs will be lost in Louisiana. Not to mention that Citgo today depends heavily on Venezuelan crude of low quality and thus may give up that dependency; while it gets new oil sources the new management will not have qualms in cutting down whatever needs to be cut down in Citgo.
 |
| Suitably dressed in chavista red |
In short, the odds of you getting plenty of egg on your face are big. It does not matter how much you may help the Venezuelan dictatorial regime, this one will drop you as it wishes, as it has betrayed whenever convenient ANY political ally it has harbored.
Second, I do hope that you are aware that you are supporting a regime that was friend with Qaddafi, that supports Assad from Syria, that is supporting Hamas without any condition, that is antisemitic, homophobic and what not. And this I mention before I would start listing all of its human rights record, its violations of all legality in Venezuela, its dictatorial nature, that Venezuela has become under Chavez and his successor the main through-way for drugs going to the United States, etc. I hope that even the dumb staffer that advised you on such a position will redo his or her homework and come to grips about the price to be payed by your reputation for a few hundred jobs in Louisiana, which do not assure reelection to begin with. Because, dear Senator, you are supporting an avowed enemy of the United States.
Third, if the above rational, logical, public knowledge only missed by your staff but well managed by Patton Boggs who cashed hundred of thousand of dollars from Citgo giving you only 75,000 (how profitable for you is that?) is not enough allow me to give you the human touch.
I have been blogging for over a decade to denounce the Chavez regime in Venezuela. My blog is well known and even brought me to the attention of major communication networks. I am not writing this to brag, I am writing to let you know that I know what I am writing about and my credibility has been gained over a decade of coherence in my analysis. This is not a miffed letter like the one that could have been fired by a miffed constituent of yours.
Right now in Venezuela I am facing a deep personal crisis because my partner of 15 years has an incurable but somewhat treatable form of cancer. I cannot describe the excruciating toil that it is in Caracas to find adequate treatment, adequate help, to bring my debilitated partner to his appointments, to be afraid that any new hospitalization may bring us to bankruptcy, etc. All of this because the public health system of "socialist" Venezuela has failed and we have been forced to take expensive and yet limited private heath coverage. And this at a time where the deep mismanagement and corruption of the country has left it without cash reserves to even import basic medical supplies (and food, and spare parts, etc.) Thus you will forgive my outrage when I learn that my government has spent 550,000 US dollars to lobby so that the corrupt officials of Venezuela could count on you to stop sanctions so that they can go to Disney World with their families this summer, or maybe for the more daring ones, Bourbon Street.
Senator, I am finishing this letter by letting you know that I am gay, Liberal, and I have even a French origin like you. In the my many years I lived in the US I did develop a strong liking to the country and its people. You do not seem to be like the people I knew and which I was intellectually close to. I lived in North Carolina when Jesse Helms was a Senator and somehow I suspect that for all the justified dislike I had for Helms, he would have never supported Venezuela today they way you are doing. Please, prove me wrong. Otherwise I will have to root for Bill Cassidy of which I know little. That is, he may be the worse homophobe from the Tea Party for all that I know, but in politics it is sometimes preferable to have an enemy you can predict than an unprincipled friend that can set you loose at any time.
It is up to you to correct your mistake. Just do it.
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