Returning home for Dummies

What can I say? Never did I see so many changes in Venezuela after a mere three weeks absence. In fact, the shock of the first few days was so big that I refused to update my database on politics and the like. Even today as I type I am far behind the details. And yet they do not matter: the big picture has become bigger for me after four weeks outside.

My first shock was the grocery store when I went to refurbish my refrigerator. The prices went noticeably up in one month for the stuff I buy. There was no imported goods. Of course, among the goods available there is all sorts of imported stuff re-processed in Venezuela. After all we are importing now at the very least 60% of our food (estimates vary, I am giving you the bottom line). What I mean is that you could still find an occasional treat, like some average Italian pasta, or an overpriced jar of raspberry jam. This is now all gone. And it has not been replaced, even by sub-par Venezuelan production.

Of course, an eventual chavista reader may say that what the heck, "El Pueblo" does not need raspberry jam, that I am a mere pretentious bourgeois. But the problem is that goods for "El Pueblo" are also lacking, that they did not in September. For example laundry detergent of any type is gone. Dishwashing liquid is hard to find. Toilet paper is sort of back but forget about insect repellent in the middle of a chikungunya/dengue epidemic. I am deprived of raspberry jam but I have screens on my windows and I have been forced long ago into a stock of basic unscented "las llaves" because I am allergic to any scented laundry detergent. What does el pueblo do?

Well, some in el pueblo are happy that some stores have started official rationing with ID cards numbers. Apparently some stores even would be banning people to visit them more than once a week, but I have not confirmed this very last piece of trivia. They truly believe that this will stop shortages! I suppose they do believe also that speculators have the financial ability and space to hoard stuff for years....

But then again, this is the plan of the regime, to hold anyone in extortion: behave, support me, or nothing for you.  Or deal with black-market prices, another form of extortion. And extortion all is, even more in politics these days.

What happened with the sudden dismissal of infamous Repression Minister Rodriguez Torres is the iceberg tip of the intense extortion game for power and everyday scarcer resources.

R.T. was fired because he tried to tame one of the "colectivos", those paramilitary groups set up under Chavez. They are now an armed force with significant fire power of considerable danger, abundantly used for state sponsored violence such as student repression, and subsequent murders. It is vox populi and yet it is touching to see how some regime figures tenderly defend them as mere social groups intent on preserving the social gains of the bogus revolution. Intent they are, but on defending the business that they now control, all sorts of trafficking mafia style, in particular the supply of basic scarce staples that some seem to have access to in mysterious ways, allowing illegal distribution as street selling to flourish. Black market, you know...

Colectivos are, like mafia, masters in extortion. I am tired of hearing, and even suffering, the consequences of their actions, often linked with the infamous "pranes", gang leaders operating from the jails where they are forced residents but where they exert full control, even over wardens. This collusion makes sense since the regime can only "trust" gangs, thugs and diverse mobsters who understand very well the thought process of the thugs in power and their Cuban overlords. This is where power rests in Venezuela.

But that infernal trio has problems in spite of their recent victory (I say trio to summarize but that seat of power may have more legs than what you'd expect). By getting the removal of R.T. and an apparent public dalliance with Maduro (we have always known that Maduro and Cubans are in bed with the colectivos) they challenge the army directly.  Indeed, this one has been served notice that colectivos are the thing and there is no way the regime will allow them to be controlled. Acceptance? We are thus set in a course of likely unavoidable confrontation, if you forgive me the oxymoron. At the end of the road there can be only one holder of fire power, the army or the colectivos.

As for the opposition and loners like yours truly, the only thing left for us is to get as many cans as we can, run for cover and watch.

The pernicious Foro politics

There were elections yesterday in Uruguay and Brasil, and friends of the Sao Paulo Forum have reasons to cheer. Not because they won but because their system of social division and class hatred prospers ensuring them meager but consistent electoral victories.  Let's look at Brasil.

It is clear that just as the case is in Venezuela, the "productive" states are pitted against the "assisted" states. And the trend becomes more severe as the electoral margin of victory narrows, Dilma being reelected with the narrowest margin in a couple of decades at least. In fact, even though she fails to get 52% nationally in some of the red states she gets over 70% (78.6%! in Maranhao), a feat that Aecio does not manage in any of his picks (evening out nation wide because he carries the most populous state with 64.3%).

I am not going to discuss Brazilian politics, a difficult subject in the best of times considering the multiplicity of parties and regional tendencies. But the map is clear: in the last 4 years Dilma's party, PT (Foro) has increased its absolute grip on the poor North East while the productive South sees its pro market forces progress, even in Rio and Brasilia. It would be easy to claim for a Dilma/Lula supporter that the North East received finally the help it needed. And it is true that social programs in Brazil are better conceived than those of Venezuela which are strictly along electoral lines. But it is also true that Dilma allowed for the client nature of these programs to develop and that she used that as a shameful electoral blackmail. Thus Brazil just lived through its most bitter, most unfair electoral campaign. And we can only be afraid that the trend will continue in 4 years from now.

And thus operate the supporters and associates of the Foro: clientele assistance programs to secure a chunk of the electorate through fear and blackmail. We see its paroxysm in Venezuela where the Cubans went gung-ho through Chavez and easy oil money (though even there the margins have narrowed while country division increased). Fortunately for the inhabitants of other countries who need to work for a living the trend has not been as damaging yet. But it is there, do not be fooled. What is already a fact is that in some of these countries (Venezuela, Brasil, Argentina) the political division has been dramatically exacerbated. That exacerbation is the main tool in these countries for the left to retain office though increasingly pseudo electoral processes while slowly but surely the rule of law is weakened. Other countries for local reasons do not reach the polarization of the above countries (Ecuador, Bolivia, Uruguay) but the trend is there. And in Central America it has started with Nicaragua, Honduras and Salvador.

Unfortunately I do not see that trend breaking until civil war starts in one of these countries, making the other societies react.

As for Dilma, I do not believe a word she said last night. Bad first terms never lead to better second terms. Her meager victory, based on blackmail and dirty politics, can only exacerbate her character flaws. In a fair election she would have been ousted and she knows that.
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PS: for the record, before anyone accuses me of ignorance. There are productive pockets in the Nordeste and there assisted areas in the South. Yet, look at the results in Brazil main cities and state capitals and the picture is even worse than the national map!!!!!

PS2: The results and the divide were already in sight.

News of the day

Venezuelan oil barrel reaches down to 75 USD a barrel. We are broke.

Rodriguez Torres, ferocious minister of security who had dozens of students killed and hundreds jailed is fired, when he tried to rein in the "colectivos", chavismo storm troopers. Yet, military balance in government remains unchanged.

Draw your own conclusions.

Dakazo 2 and Technocrats

The advantage of distance is that one has no time to follow closely what happens in Venezuela nor the ability to self drown in useless details. Thus the mind clears up and one starts seeing "things". I see a "dakazo 2" in play and I see an avid embrace of technocratic managed inflation by the regime. The poor guys do not have much of a choice: the drop in oil prices is not a mere circumstantial affair and something must be done even though as it is always the way in Venezuela the decisions are not the right ones.

The "dakazo 2"

As this blog has often repeated the regime is paralyzed since Chavez death because any economic measure it may take will hurt one of its pillars. Weakness inside chavismo being what it is, there is no way the regime can risk alienating any of its bases. Though the apparent dismissal of Ramirez away of the oil money may indicate that the situation is bad enough that settling accounts between factions cannot be avoided anymore.

But price of oil is going down in a way that will last for a year or two. The regime that needs oil at 120 USD a barrel to survive will be lucky if it gets it a 80+USD.... the solution to the financial crush is very simple: stop sending oil to Cuba and force the Chinese to renegotiate previous agreements that are apparently too skewed China's way. But this is not an option so there is only one way for the regime to get the missing dollars: force the private sector to bring back its dollars held overseas.To do that you simply stop honoring CADIVI/Cencoex USD debts and force private sector to save its good name and reputation by paying. Also, it is assumed that the private sector will not let its business go bankrupt in Venezuela and in the end will accept to bring back currency, knowing that it will possibly never be recovered.

Hence the "dakazo 2", a new way to steal dollars from the private sector to boost the regime popularity, just as Maduro did last November forcing commerce to sell under price and leaving the country with semi empty stores since then. Go and visit a DAKA store today.....

Unfortunately it will not work.

For one thing it is safe to assume that half of what has been taken out of Venezuela under Chavez is already spent, invested, placed in real estate, wasted, whatever. That money cannot go back, it's gone, period.

We could be optimistic and assume that half the bullion could be recovered because it is in stocks, in reserves or in the accounts of Venezuelan companies overseas who may decide to save the home business. But they will not do so for very simple reasons. With an inflation of 100%, with insecurity, with a regime that seems still only too willing to expropriate stuff like Polar, there is no viable risk calculation for a business to bring back dollars to save the company in trouble: it would be throwing in good money over bad.

Let me put it under a practical light: if I have, say, 2 million dollars overseas as working reserves for the business, I could use maybe 100, or 200 to buy spare parts or specific chemicals outside of Cadivi/Cencoex. But I AM NOT GOING to use that money to buy the more significant amounts required to import raw materials that the regime wants to force me to buy with my savings because the regime refuses to honor my previous legally contracted debt, a debt contracted with the regime approval.  In short, considering that local currency is worthless, that there are no working conditions, bankruptcy in Venezuela is much more cost effective than bringing back your savings to save your company.

The dakazo 2 will fail miserably and the amazing thing is that the regime will be unable to understand why....

Technocracy on the rise

I have heard all sorts of nicompoopetties as to the regime holding to office stubbornly but as a concession allowing technocrats to run the show. You know, like China.... Things will get better...

This also will not work.

First, the good potential technocrats in Venezuela have long left the country or are salvaging their business or someone's business. It is unlikely that they will leave their current jobs to dirty themselves in the cesspool that Venezuela's administration has become. In any case they would impose conditions that I doubt the regime would meet.

Thus the only sources for the regime are foreign technocrats or local second tier ones, the only ones that may be willing to put up with the crassness of working for a vulgar and corrupt regime. For money of course.

In the foreign import section we have already people like the notorious Banque Lazare and the ambiguous Pigasse at its head. Nothing good can come of it. Not because Pigasse works for money, it is his right. But because his personal delusions push him to prop up a brutal regime devoid of ethics and corrupt to the bone.

Local technocrats available are of poor quality and, well, come mainly from the military ranks. Thus their "technocracy" was acquired late in their career and as a side occupation. And even those that the regime promote are, well, of dubious quality. Let's take for example Alejandro Fleming who directs CENCOEX, the ATM of the regime for imports. Well, he does speak French and has studies at French average to low universities. His major was International Relations and now he is one of the economy stars never having worked in a private business or even in a bank or economic think tank. You think I am rash? Well read his tweet line and tell me I am wrong about the guy, that he is more than merely a flippant bureaucrat.

Even if I was convinced that Fleming and the like have good intentions, they have neither the skills or the contacts needed to solve Venezuelan current problems.

Thus we shall keep sinking.

MariGabi does New York

Do not count me among those ones totally upset about Chavez daughter gaining a Security Council seat at the UN for two years with basically zero qualifications for the job. The problem is not her, the problem is the UN and assorted organizations which in the last decade have descended fast into a tolerated irrelevance.

The starting point in that race to nothingness could be traced to many starting blocks: I choose the decision of Bush to invade Iraq without any permit from the UN. It has all gone downhill since, sped up along by China and Russia voting strictly along their basic interests, forfeiting their global role and responsabilities whatsoever. Or have you forgotten their disgraceful performances during the Arab brief Spring? Syria?

Same thing for the OAS in the Americas already quite weak when Chavez came in. The problem is not that Chavez, guided by Fidel, reduced it to mulch, the problem is that people let him get away with it.  The near sightness of countries like Chile or Brazil in this disaster will come back soon enough to haunt them the day they will need support of international groups.

That Chavez daughter, who probaly has already a criminal record on her own, makes it to the UN, be it to be promoted as an eventual puppet successor to Chavez by her Cuban mentors, or because it was the only way to have her vacate the presidential home premises (soon two years after Chavez croaking) is a mere insult from Cuba to the UN, amazingly undetected by half of European countries, that I know. Maybe abstention is not allowed in the UN?  Whatever the reasons are, there is no beter proof that the UN has become a mere bureaucracy, a place where politicians can serve vacation time or suffer a comfy exile. 

If I were Ban, I would resign. Then again, I was named as a bureaucrat to that post, anyway.....

Waldoniel special 2014

Here are 4 pictures of 4 places I have visited these last few days. That way you will understand better the low posting rate. Note: it is 80% business trip and I am exhausted, but I still manage a day out on occasion. Bonus points if you guess more than the mere place or country.

City one: (hint: NOT Venezuela)

 Country 2: guess the fruit for free bonus. And no, it is not litchi or Asia.

City 2:

City 3: and a marvelous concert to boot, nobody coughing, no cel phones.

Further hints if you follow me on Twitter.

Postales de Paris para Maduro

Hola Nicolas

Estoy aquí en París. Sufrí mucho para conseguir pasaje. Y ahora sufro más porque CADVI me negó los dolares. Disque las fechas de mi pasaje no coincidían con los plazos "días hábiles" para pedir CADIVI. O sea que yo quien nunca me propase en mi cupo, yo que nunca me metí en tracalas con CADIVI, por güevon me quedé sin dolares y tengo que viajar con mis ahorros y dolares prestados esperando que por suerte saque algo en SICAD 2 para devolver esa plata... Y lo tengo que hacer para tratar de salvar el negocio y los empleos, cosa que los chaburros que todavía lo son en la empresa no me lo agradecen. ¿Pero que se hace?  Supe que tu en el Bronx no tuviste peos y que los dolares a ti sí te los aprobaron para payasear, porque para trabajar no fue que fuiste a Nueva York. Que yo sepa no salvaste nada allí...


Para decirte la verdad no me va muy bien. Estoy en esa feria de negocios grandísima con sopocientos estands. Pero cuando digo que soy de Venezuela casi que me dan el pésame. Es mas, ¡imagínate! Me paré en un stand de una empresa china donde fabrican algo que podría ser útil en Venezuela. Fíjate que el chino que me atendió, con un inglés hasta mas machacado que el tuyo, me dijo apenas supo que era de Venezuela "Venezuela? No sale! No sale! No pay! No pay!" O sea que ese chino ya no quiere vender mas en Venezuela porque no le pagaron lo que vendió antes. Hasta levantó las manos como si yo fuese un espanto.

Que raya  Nicolás, ser Venezolano en una feria comercial mundial en Francia ... Las penas ajenas que tengo que pasar porque tu y tu combo prefieren robar y entregarle el trasero a Cuba antes de permitir que Venezuela se desarrolle....

Pero te digo una cosa Nicolás. Nunca como antes me sentí tan alienado estando fuera de Venezuela como esta vez. Fíjate, las farmacias están llenas y compré acetaminofen para traer de vuelta a Venezuela. También me reconocieron récipes que traje y me pude comprar algo para mi tía y otro para mi. La gente se extrañaba que esas cosas falten en Venezuela.

Fíjate que desde que llegue no hubo un solo apagón, y que el agua nunca falta y la puedo tomar del grifo sin problema.  De noche me paseo sin rollo. Y solo veo militares franceses en el metro porque tienen miedo de un atentado jihadista. Que contraste con Venezuela y esa narco plaga militar por todas partes para matraquear pero no para la seguridad.

También vi que los motorizados se medio comportan aquí. Las calles están limpias, bueno, a parte de las cagadas de perros. Pero a cada rato se ven unos carritos especiales con manguera de agua para lidiar con eso.

También volví a tomar el metro, a cualquier hora. En Caracas tuve que dejar de hacerlo, y si lo hago tiene que ser entre las 10 y las 3, la única hora donde la bestilidad disminuye algo. Hay una cosa fascinante en el metro de París: hay gente del mundo entero, se oye cualquier cantidad de idiomas. En Carcas lo único que se oye son insultos y un español mal hablado, estilo @correoguaire... En Venezuela parece que no hay turistas, inmigrantes o gente educada.

De Valencia con amor

Pero pase por un momento linod aunque algo triste. Mira Nicolás, hay una arepera en París y a pesar de estar en la capital gastronomica del mundo me fui a comer una arepa (más barata ademas que comida francesa).

Fijate que escapando del desastre nacional cualquier cantidad de compatriotas salieron a vivir en un sitio donde no los van a atracar en cualquier momento. Demasiado de estos con títulos universitarios que se perdieron y no solamente para Venezuela que pago por ellos. Estas jovencitas tienen titulo universitarios y trabajan en un lugar de lo mas simpático, haciende descubrir arepas a los franceses. Me comí una de pabellon con un jugo de parchita de lo mas convincente.

Arepa de pabellon, salsa verde, guasacaca y parchita

"BULULU" la areperita de Paris

Así que imagínate Nicolas que en Paris es mas fácil conseguir harina PAN que en Caracas. ¡Siempre hay!

Como es posible eso? Sera un contrabando de extracción supervisado por militares corruptos en la frontera con la participación de Lorenzo?

Acaparamiento?

Pues no. Resulta que toda esa harina viene de Colombia. Lorenzo la esta produciendo para el mundo entero mientras tu te la pasas jodiendo a Lorenzo en Venezuela. Le saque la foto a la etiqueta, aquí abajo. Leela tu mismo y veras que haces con Lorenzo. Quien sabe, de repente los militares de la frontera permiten a las gandolas de harina salir a Colombia y ser re-empacadas..... ¡Saca una cadena ya!

hecho en Colombia, CUNDINAMARCA

Auyama y ron

Para terminar quiero que sepas que esta arepera es un negocio venezolano de verdad, no propaganda del malvado imperio. Fíjate en esa foto a la izquierda con una auyamita tallada de Tintorero, para traerle buena suerte al negocio.

Asi que si estas en Paris y se te antoja un momento patrio agradable toma el metro hasta "Lamarck.Caulincourt". Sales y bajas las escaleras en frente de la salida. Cuando llegas a la calle, vas a ver Bululu a mano derecha a media cuadra. Hasta roncito venezolano tienen. Eso si, si no tienes CADIVI la arepa y el jugo te van a costar 1500 bolos.


Conclusión: mira Nicolás, yo no se lo que estas tramando con tu combo de corruptos y malandros que te rodean y complementan. Lo que si sé es que tecnológicamente Venezuela esta atrasadísima, lo vi en la feria que atendí. Yo veo como los profesionales prefieren cocinar arepas en Paris en vez de desempeñarse en la patria. Me dolió la mala fama que tenemos ahora. Me dolió la pobre calidad de vida que tenemos ahora en Venezuela. El problema con ustedes corruptos chaburros es que ni siquiera están meando fuera del perol. Es que ya ni saben que hay un perol para eso. Y el mundo los esta aislando como se aísla la gente de malos modales.

Danilo Anderson, Eliecer Otaiza and Robert Serra

Even though I am far away, in a country where there is medicine and food, where there are no power outages and where I can sleep on a ground floor room with my window open, waves of bad news keep reaching me even if I avoid my computer as much as possible.


I am not going to discuss the morbid details of the death of Robert Serra. I am too far away, I do not care enough and he certainly was not one of my favorites. The PSUV representative that may have been more chavista than Chavez himself was an histrionic character, always looking for exhibitionism. His death was murky, his house was not broken in, the murder had clear ritual pagan hints and was barbarous by all standards, the female that accompanied him in death was qualified from a mere assistant to carrying his child even though Serra himself was rumored gay (I would agree with that guess) or a womanizer. Nevertheless the regime made him a hero, a macho hero at that, just as it did with two other notable murders, those of Danilo Anderson and Eliecer Otaiza. Notable murders in that they also exhibited strange connotations, starting with the brutality and nastiness of the murder itself. As such the regime has been obliged to sanctify the victims least too much of a magnifying glass were to be used on its shadowy mechanisms. But maybe the regime should have refrained, truth comes always, if late.

In the case of Serra, there had been plenty of evidence of his associations with "colectivos", those paramilitaries groups sponsored by the regime to administer political violence through civilians. Totalitarians always do create such monstrosities, from chavismo colectivos to the Cuban CDR, to fascism brown, dark, blue shirts. For example he was infamously exposed one day at a joint where children were carrying weapons. Certainly someone that was promoted by Chavez was highly sought by these groups to broker favors, deals, or protection. Soon enough our boy Serra joined their mafia mentality and his speeches reflected it.

Unfortunately not everyone is cut to deal with this type of world, and the pressures. For example, a basic rule is that when you make a "deal" you should always have a fall guy in case the deal fails. Otherwise you will have to pay for the failed deal, maybe with your own life. I have no doubt that Serra was involved in such deals and that his inexperience did him in, the more so that he never seemed to be of the type of politicians eager to learn... Same thing happened to Anderson whose extortion ring went too far; or Otaiza who was supposed to distribute funds to colectivos but who may have kept some for himself, or given to some else that the original destination.

The point I am trying to make here is that no one should be surprised that such things are happening inside chavismo, a mere mob system aggravated by vulgarity and poor education, ornamented with pagan rites imported from Cuba. Cases like Serra, I am sure, hide cases from lower level officials though we hear all time of bodyguards and cops murdered in mysterious circumstances. I can assure you that the Venezuelan opposition is likely 95% free of guilt in this mob, gang, drug deal wars. Chavismo has to look inside itself, its methods to find the culprits. But it will not, of course, blaming every Uribe and his brothers.

Thus for me Serra is not an important piece of news. The important news is that the price of oil keeps going down in spite of all the Middle East turmoil. The important news is that the regime is not taking any constructive measure to manage the crisis in a rational way. The important news is that the illegal dollar has finally crossed the 100 line in Cucuta when the official rate is still a paltry 6.3.

The regime may give state funerals to a creep like Serra, but that will not hide the reality....